WHO: Maryland Terrapins (4-6, 1-6 Big Ten)

WHEN: 11:0 AM CT (Saturday, November 23, 2024)

WHERE: SECU Stadium (College Park, MD)

TV: BTN (Guy Haberman, Yogi Roth)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Pat Angerer, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 372

MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile

ONLINE: foxsports.com/live

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @HawkeyeFootball | @CFBONFOX | @IowaonBTN

WEATHER: partly cloudy, temps in the low 50s, potential for 20 mph winds

LINE: Iowa -4.5 (total of 45.5)

Welcome to the Jackson Stratton era? It certainly seems like Saturday will mark the first career start at quarterback for the walk-on transfer from Colorado State. Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz hinted at that possibility during his media availability on Tuesday and again during his radio show on Wednesday night.

"Jackson looks like the guy that'll be going. He'll get the start," Ferentz said on the latter.

It's been a tumultuous season for Iowa at quarterback; assuming Stratton starts on Saturday, he'll be the third different starting quarterback for Iowa this season. The last time that happened at Iowa was in 2006, when Jason Manson and Jake Christiansen made spot starts in relief of Drew Tate.

Cade McNamara began the season as the starter, though he soon ceded red zone responsibilities to Brendan Sullivan. After McNamara sustained a concussion against Northwestern, Sullivan took over as the starter -- until he suffered a serious ankle sprain against UCLA that's expected to keep him out of action the rest of the season. With third-string QB Marco Lainez sidelined with a thumb injury (though possibly available on an "emergency" basis for Saturday's game) and true freshman James Resar also sidelined with an injury (and moved to wide receiver as well), the Hawkeyes have just Stratton, who saw action at scout team linebacker only a few weeks ago, available at quarterback.

The Terrapins are 1-6 in the Big Ten this year, but offense hasn't been the problem for Maryland. The Terps have averaged 26.4 ppg this season, 9th in the Big Ten. Unlike Iowa, which has very stark home and road splits when it comes to scoring (36.5 ppg at home, 18.8 ppg on the road), Maryland has scored at a pretty consistent clip home or away (28.0 ppg at home, 24.0 ppg on the road).

Maryland is also averaging 421.2 yards per game (6th best in the Big Ten) and 5.62 yards per play (10th), which are ominous numbers for an Iowa defense that's been very poor on the road this season -- the Hawkeyes are allowing 395.5 yards per game and 5.95 yards per play away from Kinnick Stadium this season. In each of Iowa's last three road games, its opponents have gone for 400+ yards of offense and over 200+ through the air and on the ground.

The Terps boast the Big Ten's 14th best rushing attack at 115.5 yards per game (3.69 yards per carry), but that may not mean much, considering that the Hawkeyes allowed 200+ yards on the ground to the Big Ten's worst rushing offense (UCLA) in their last game. Still, Maryland's offense is far more formidable through the air -- in fact, the Terps lead the Big Ten in passing with 305.7 yards per game. They rank just 9th in yards per attempt (7.0 ypa) and 10th in QB rating (132.9), so they've been more of a volume-based passing attack than a highly efficient one.

QB Billy Edwards, Jr. has been the main trigger man for the Terp passing game this season; he leads the Big Ten with 2,855 passing yards on 65% passing. His QB rating of 130.9 ranks 10th in the league, though, and his nine interceptions this year are tied for the fourth-most among Big Ten quarterbacks. Edwards isn't a huge threat with his legs (123 yards on 76 attempts), though he is dangerous around the end zone with five rushing touchdowns. Overall, he's been very solid this year, but also a bit error-prone.

His top target has been senior receiver Tai Felton (6'2", 186), who has put up gargantuan numbers so far this season -- he leads the Big Ten in receptions (86) and receiving yards (1,040), along with seven touchdowns. His numbers stack up nationally as well -- he ranks 2nd in receptions and 4th in receiving yards among all FBS players this year. Slowing him down will be a huge task for an Iowa secondary that's been burned on more than a few occasions this season.

Kaden Prather (6'3", 210) has been an effective sidekick to Felton this season, with 52 receptions for 579 yards and three scores. Octavian Smith, Jr. (5'11", 176) has also chipped in 315 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 30 catches this season, while tight end Dylan Wade (6'2", 236) has also been a reliable outlet in the passing game, with 27 receptions for 357 yards and two touchdowns.

Roman Hemby leads the Maryland game, with 524 yards and six touchdowns on 113 carries (4.64 ypc). Freshman Nolan Ray is second on the team with 62 carries for 275 yards (4.44 ypc) and a pair of touchdowns.

In a different situation, this game would have real breakout potential for the Iowa passing game. Maryland is last in the league in pass defense, allowing 262.7 yards per game. Opponents have completed 61.8% of their passes against the Terps and posted a QB rating of 140.8 this season. Maryland has also allowed 20 passing touchdowns (most in the Big Ten), while forcing nine interceptions.

Only two opponents have failed to top 200 passing yards against Maryland -- Villanova, who had 156 in a September loss, and Oregon, who had 183 in a win two weeks ago. The Ducks also ran for 180 yards in that game, so throwing the ball wasn't as much of a necessity.

In general, the Maryland run defense has been adequate this season. The Terps rank 8th in the league, allowing 115.4 yards per game and 3.61 yards per carry. The 13 rushing touchdowns they've conceded ranks 10th in the league. Have teams declined to run the ball on Maryland because they had so much success throwing the ball instead? Perhaps.

Maryland has allowed the fourth-most red zone trips in the Big Ten (38) and the third-most scores (33). Opponents have turned red zone appearances into touchdowns 63% of the time. The Terps have been middle of the road in stopping opponents on third down, allowing conversions 41.3% of the time (10th in the Big Ten). Maryland has also been particularly vulnerable to big plays on defense -- they rank in the bottom-three of the league in allowing plays of 20+ yards, 30+ yards, and 40+ yards.

Linebacker Ruben Hyppolite II leads the team in tackles with 47, while Kellan Wyatt leads the team in tackles for loss (7.0) and sacks (3.0). Caleb Wheatland also has 6.0 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks. As a team, Maryland has just 13 sacks, the fewest by any team in the Big Ten.

Defensive backs Glendon Miller and Jalen Huskey lead the team in interceptions with three apiece; Dante Trader, Jr. has just one interception, but also has a team-high four passes broken up.

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Maryland has the Big Ten's leading punter in Bryce McFerson; he's averaging 46.1 yards per kick this season. 19 of his 38 punts have been fielded inside the 20 this year and opponents have managed just 82 yards on 11 returns.

In the placekicking department, Jack Howes has made 11-of-16 field goal attempts this season and 28 of 29 extra point efforts.

Will Jackson Stratton's walk-on-to-starter rags to riches story have a happy ending? Or will the bottom fall out a little bit more on an Iowa season that's already featured four losses and a series of poor performances on the road? This game seems like it rests as much on the mental state of the Hawkeyes as anything else.

Iowa has had over two weeks to sit with the loss at UCLA -- was that defeat motivating or demoralizing? The Hawkeyes have bounced back from their previous losses with resounding wins -- but those games were also at home and when the season had a bit more promise than it does at 6-4 overall.

Will the Hawkeyes rally behind Stratton or will thoughts move to the offseason? On paper, Maryland's porous pass defense seems to present the potential for a solid performance from Stratton in his first-ever start. But that will also require full buy-in from the other Hawkeyes as well.

Stratton and the passing game will need to pose some semblance of a threat in order to free up any running room for Kaleb Johnson and Iowa ground game. Having Luke Lachey and Addison Ostrenga healthy and available should provide a much-needed boost to the passing game.

Iowa seems like the better team on paper than Maryland -- but that was the case against Michigan State and UCLA as well and we know how those games turned out. Iowa's biggest superpower is traditionally its togetherness; the Hawkeyes excel by being a whole that's greater than the sum of its parts. That requires total buy-in and effort, though, and it remains to be seen if we'll see that on Saturday. For now, let's go with a guarded "maybe," with Stratton throwing for 175+, Kaleb Johnson scoring a pair of touchdowns, and the defense forcing two interceptions.

Iowa 28, Maryland 20