WHO: Iowa State Cyclones (6-2)
WHEN: 6:30 PM CT (Thursday, December 7, 2023)
WHERE: Hilton Coliseum (Ames, IA)
TV: ESPNU (Rich Hollenberg, Jon Crispin)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: espn.com/app
ONLINE: espn.com/watch
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa State -6.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa State -6 (ISU 83, Iowa 77; 30% chance of Iowa winning)
On Monday, Iowa went to a hostile road environment... and got thrashed by Purdue, 87-68.
On Thursday, Iowa heads to another hostile road environment... will the end result be any different for the Hawkeyes in Hilton Coliseum?
Iowa State isn't as dominant as No. 4 Purdue, of course, but the Cyclones are off to a strong enough start this season. They've gone 6-2, with their only losses coming in back-to-back neutral-site games against Virginia Tech (71-62) and Texas A&M (73-69).
Granted, their schedule outside of three neutral-site games at the ESPN Events Invitational has been pretty soft -- but they've also been destroying those weak opponents. Iowa State's average margin of victory in six wins this season is 34 points, and the Cyclones have held four opponents to 55 points or fewer.
Couple Iowa State's strong defense (9th nationally in defensive efficiency) with a rabid home crowd and Iowa's propensity for slow starts, and there's a potent formula for what could be a very difficult -- and very ugly -- game for the Hawkeyes.
PROJECTED IOWA STATEÂ STARTING FIVE
G Tamin Lipsey (6'1", 200, 15.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 6.3 apg, 3.0 spg, 49.4 FG%, 36.0 3FG%)
G Keshon Gilbert (6'4", 200, 14.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.6 apg, 2.0 spg, 48.7 FG%, 27.8 3FG%)
F Milan Momcilovic (6'8", 220, 13.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.9 apg, 46.8 FG%, 44.7 3FG%)
F Tre King (6'7", 230, 10.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.5 spg, 59.3 FG%)
C Robert Jones (6'10", 255, 8.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 0.8 apg, 1.3 spg, 71.4 FG%)
Iowa State head coach TJ Otzelberger has been aggressive in using the transfer portal to (re)build Iowa State's roster, and his efforts have worked well so far. Three of Iowa State's five projected starters began their careers elsewhere (Lipsey and Momcilovic the only exceptions), though not all are recent arrivals.
Tre King began his career at Eastern Kentucky but arrived at Iowa State last season, while Robert Jones spent two seasons at Denver before transferring to ISU ahead of 2021-22. Keshon Gilbert is a more recent addition, arriving over this offseason from UNLV. Reserves Curtis Jones and Jackson Paveletzke are other recent transfer addition, arriving this season from Buffalo and Wofford, respectively.
Despite the numerous new faces, developing strong chemistry has not been an issue for Iowa State this season, especially on the defensive end.
In addition to ranking 9th in overall defensive efficiency, ISU has been excellent at just about every defensive factor — except keeping opponents off the three-point and free throw lines. Iowa State has an effective FG% defense of 45.3% (39th nationally) and the Cyclones have been particularly good at defending shots around the rim and inside the arc -- opponents are making only 40.5% (5th) of their 2-point attempts this season.
The Cyclones have also been outstanding at forcing turnovers -- their turnover rate of 25.9% ranks 3rd best nationally. Their steal rate of 16.9% ranks 2nd nationally. They also don't allow opponents to grab many offensive rebounds; opponents are rebounding just 23.8% of their misses against ISU, which ranks 20th nationally.
So where are the opportunities for the Hawkeyes to score? Iowa State has allowed a lot of three-pointers this season -- they rank 347th in 3-point rate on defense. Opponents have converted 3-point tries at a 34.1% clip, which ranks 231st. ISU has also put teams on the free throw line quite a bit -- 271st in free throw rate this season. Opponents have made 72.5% of their free throw attempts against ISU.
Otzelberger's past ISU teams were also very strong on defense, but were weak on the offensive side of the ball. This year's team is off to a much better start in that department. The Cyclones are 66th in offensive efficiency this year and 54th in eFG% (53.9%), highlighted by a 56.2% conversion rate on 2-point attempts.
ISU has also done a good job of limiting turnovers (14.4% turnover rate, 34th nationally), especially of the non-steal variety; only 5.6% of their possessions end in non-steal turnovers (traveling, illegal screens, etc.), so they don't do much to beat themselves. The Cyclones also rebound their misses well, ranking 26th in offensive rebound rate (36.7%), which is a concern for an Iowa team that's struggled to rebound the ball effectively this season.
Despite all the transfer additions, Iowa State's main threat this season is a homegrown hero -- sophomore guard Tamin Lipsey. He leads the team in scoring (15.1 ppg), rebounding (6.5 rpg), assists (6.2 apg), and steals (3.0). He's also shooting 49% from the floor and 36% from 3-point range this season. About the only thing he's been bad at this year is free throw shooting (61.9%). He's ISU's primary ball-handler, with a 2.6 assist:turnover ratio, and the straw that stirs the drink for this Cyclone squad. Containing him and his crowd-igniting energy will be a central task for Iowa's defense.
While Lipsey has been strong all around and a stat-stuffing star this season, the scoring load has been pretty evenly distributed on this ISU roster. Four players are averaging between 10.1 and 15.1 ppg this year. After Lipsey, the team's leading scorer has been transfer guard Keshon Gilbert, who's been pouring in 14.8 ppg, along with 4.3 rpg, 3.6 apg, and 2.0 spg. Gilbert hasn't been much of a 3-point threat this season (27.8% on 18 attempts), but he did make 37% (on 70 attempts) for UNLV last year; he may be due for a big game.
ISU's best perimeter shooter has been freshman Milan Momcilovic, a 6'8", 220-lb wing averaging 13.6 ppg and shooting 46.8% from the field and 44.7% from 3-point range on 47 attempts. Almost 60% of his field goal attempts this year have been from beyond the arc, so Iowa can't leave him alone on the perimeter. Guard Curtis Jones has been a willing 3-point shooter — his 44 attempts is the 2nd highest total on the team — but not yet an effective one, as he's making just 25% of his 3s so far this season.
Among ISU freshmen, Momcilovic has been the clear standout, not 5-star addition Omaha Biliew of Waukee, Iowa. Biliew, a McDonald's All-American and one of the most decorated in-state recruits in several years, is averaging just 3.3 ppg and 2.0 rpg, while shooting 50% from the floor. He's been playing just 11.4 minutes per game so far. Better days are likely ahead for the ultra-talented Biliew, but he hasn't been a standout presence for the Cyclones yet.
Tre King and Robert Jones have been holding manning the post for Iowa State this season and doing yeomen's work. King is Iowa's fourth double-figure scorer, at 10.1 ppg, and has also been grabbing 5.5 rpg and 1.5 spg. Robert Jones replaced the injured Hason Ward in the lineup and has been a solid big, with 8.9 ppg, 4.8 rpg, and 1.0 bpg. He's shooting 71% from the floor, so Iowa has to be aware of him as a threat near the bucket.
There are several things Iowa will need to do to win this game -- play with improved defensive intensity for 40 minutes, get contributions from multiple players on the roster, avoid turning the ball over, shoot well from 3 -- but the biggest might be avoiding a flat start.
Digging out of an early hole has been an issue for Iowa in several games this season, but a slow start in Hilton could put the game firmly in the Clones' control by the first or second media timeout. Iowa should be ready for ISU to come out with plenty of energy and the Hilton crowd will be baying for Hawkeye blood.
Iowa did pretty well in a hostile road environment at Creighton, but fell apart against Purdue and never recovered until the game was out of reach. The Cy-Hawk game has a history of unlikely stars emerging, so it's not out of the question that one of the Iowa freshmen (or perhaps a Dasonte Bowen or Josh Dix) could steal the show in this game.
Still, it's more likely that Iowa is going to need to rely on its most experienced players to weather the storm and play well under pressure -- Tony Perkins, Payton Sandfort, and Patrick McCaffery know what this game is all about and they need to play well to give Iowa a good shot at winning this game. Ben Krikke hasn't been a part of this rivalry before, but Iowa's still going to lean heavily on his overall experience as well.
Will all that be enough? If Iowa can get some perimeter shots to fall and keep the Hilton roars to a minimum, the Hawkeyes could have a shot at the upset. If things go sideways, though, this could easily turn into another long night on the road.
