WHO: Michigan Wolverines (7-1, 1-0 Big Ten)
WHEN: 1:00 PM CT (Saturday, December 7, 2024)
WHERE: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, MI)
TV: FS1 (Sloane Martin, LaPhonso Ellis)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @CBBonFOX | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Michigan -8.5 (total of 158.5)
KENPOM: Michigan -9 (Michigan 77% chance of winning)
The second half of the early season appetizer portion of Iowa's 2024-25 Big Ten schedule has the Hawkeyes going on the road to face a red-hot Michigan team. The Wolverines are 7-1 on the season and riding a six-game winning streak into Saturday afternoon's game, including a 67-64 win over #11 Wisconsin earlier this week.
The Wolverines aren't yet ranked by the AP poll, but they're #23 in the Coaches poll and even more highly-regarded by the NET (19) and KenPom (16) ratings. In fact, they're the second-highest Big Ten team in the current KenPom ratings, just behind Oregon at #15. Home or away, this Michigan team would represent a steep increase in difficulty for this Iowa team -- but a road trip to the Crisler Center should only further ratchet up the challenge level for Iowa.
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 10.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 6.3 apg; 52.4 FG%; 47.6 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 13.0 ppg; 3.4 rpg; 3.1 apg; 52.4 FG%; 38.2 3FG%)
F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.1 ppg; 6.0 rpg; 4.0 apg; 40.2 FG%; 30.2 3FG%)
F Ladji Dembele (6'8", 255 lbs; 4.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg; 1.0 apg; 38.9 FG%; 33.3 3FG%)
C Owen Freeman (6'10", 245 lbs; 17.3 ppg; 7.6 rpg; 1.3 apg; 65.0 FG%; 42.9 3FG%)
Seydou Traore and Cooper Koch remain out, but everyone else should be available for Iowa against Michigan.
PROJECTED MICHIGAN STARTING LINEUP
G Tre Donaldson (6'3", 195; 11.4 ppg; 3.0 rpg; 3.9 apg; 47.0 FG%; 43.3 3FG%)
G Nimari Burnett (6'5", 200; 9.8 ppg; 3.5 rpg; 1.8 apg; 51.9 FG%; 47.2 3FG%)
F Roddy Gayle (6'5", 205; 11.6 ppg; 3.5 rpg; 3.3 apg; 49.3 FG%; 39.1 3FG%)
F Vladislav Goldin (7'1", 250; 11.0 ppg; 4.8 rpg; 0.8 apg; 57.9 FG%; 50.0 3FG%)
C Danny Wolf (7'0", 250; 12.0 ppg; 9.5 rpg; 3.1 apg; 54.4 FG%; 34.8 3FG%)
PREVIEW
Current Michigan head coach Dusty May came to Ann Arbor after spending the previous six years at Florida Atlantic, highlighted by a Final Four appearance with the Owls two years ago. May has hit the ground running at Michigan, getting off to a 7-1 start in Ann Arbor and getting the new-look Wolverines to play some impressive basketball.
The biggest strength of this Michigan team has been its defense; the Wolverines rank 5th nationally in defensive efficiency and have been experts at grinding teams down on that side of the ball. Michigan's defensive prowess starts with long possessions when other teams have the ball -- opponents are averaging 18.6 seconds per possession on offense against the Wolverines, which ranks 343rd nationally.
Michigan has also been very good at forcing turnovers (23.3% of opponent possessions, 14th) and absolutely lights-out at contesting shots; the Wolverines have allowed opponents to shoot just 41.6% in effective FG% this year, 7th best nationally. The latter stat is not too surprising given that the Wolverines regularly play three players 6'10" or taller 15 minutes or more per game. The Wolverines are absolutely massive in the front court this season.
The Wolverines have been stingy behind the arc, allowing opponents to make just 28.4% of 3-point attempts (43rd), but they've been next level-good at defending shots inside the arc. Opponents are making just 41.0% of 2-points tries this season (7th), which again is no surprise when teams are regularly going up against two 7-footers in the paint. Michigan has blocked a shot on 14.3% of opponent possessions (29th) and forced a non-steal turnover on 12.6% of opponent possessions (3rd).
While Michigan has been excellent on defense this season, the Wolverines haven't exactly been poor on offense, either. Michigan ranks 44th in offensive efficiency, with an effective FG% of 57.1% (26th) and an offensive rebound date of 36.7% (30th). The Wolverines are shooting 58.8% inside the three-point line (25th) and 36.7% from deep (69th).
That interior size makes them particularly difficult to defend, as Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery noted in his pre-game comments. "They're big, but they're also versatile, especially Danny Wolf," he said. "He's a unique player in terms of almost being a point forward. [He] plays point guard lot of the time, gives them a lot of flexibility, especially in their running game. But they can also hurt you down low."
Versatility and a diverse scoring attack are definitely the order of the day for the Michigan offense. No one averages more than 12.0 ppg, but all five MIchigan starters average double-figures in scoring (though G Nimari Burnett is technically at 9.8 ppg). That starting five is almost completely new -- only Burnett was at Michigan last season -- with Wolf coming from Yale, Tre Donaldson moving over from Auburn, Roddy Gayle trading Ohio State for Michigan, and Vladislav Goldin following May from Florida Atlantic -- but they've gelled quickly this season.
In addition to the balanced scoring attack, Michigan's offense also features a lot of ball movement and utilizes multiple playmakers to initiate the offense; three different players are averaging at least 3.0 assists per game for Michigan this year. Wolf is one of those three, averaging 3.1 dimes per game while logging plenty of minutes as a point forward, or de facto point guard for the Wolverines, as McCaffery noted.
"[Wolf is] a really good passer, so they've got some high-low action," he noted. "[Wolf and Goldin are] both veteran guys. You don't see a lot of pick-and-rolls with two 7-footers, but they execute it really well."
Goldin, Michigan's other 7-foot starter, is averaging 11.0 ppg and 4.8 rpg in comparison to Wolf's 12.0 ppg and 9.5 rpg. Sam Walters, the third big, is averaging 15 minutes per game and scoring 6.1 ppg and 1.9 rpg. Keeping Michigan's post presence in check is going to be a massive challenge for Iowa on Saturday.
Gayle (11.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg, and 3.3 apg) and Donaldson (11.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, and 3.9 apg) have provided a potent 1-2 punch in the back court and on the wings for Michigan. They can score at multiple levels and have been two of Michigan's better three-point shooters this season (39.1% for Gayle, 43.3% for Donaldson). Burnett has also been a weapon from long rage for the Wolverines; he's shooting a team-high 47.2% from behind the arc this season.
Michigan's height (which ranks 7th nationally) presents so many matchup challenges for Iowa that even if the Hawkeyes were coming into this game at full strength, winning this game would look like a daunting ask for the Hawkeyes. Without Traore or Koch, the Hawkeyes have even fewer options to call upon in this game.
Owen Freeman, Ladji Dembele, Riley Mulvey, and Even Brauns are absolutely going to have their hands full trying to keep Wolf, Goldin, and Walters in check to some extent. Iowa may need all 20 fouls that quartet has between them. This has the makings of a game where Iowa is going to need to be clicking from deep to have a shot at winning; the Hawkeyes went 9-of-23 from long range in their win over Northwestern earlier this week; it seems like they'll probably need even better shooting from deep to earn a second Big Ten win on Saturday.