WHO: Northwestern Wildcats (20-8, 11-6 Big Ten)
WHEN: 4:30 PM CT (Saturday, March 2)
WHERE: Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Northwestern -3.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Northwestern -4 (NW 81, Iowa 77; NW 65% chance of winning)
Thanks to the peculiarities of the Big Ten schedule-makers, Iowa has managed to play 18 Big Ten games before facing Northwestern even once. They've played every other Big Ten squad at least once (and several of them twice) but Saturday will be the first meeting with the Wildcats, as well as the only regular season meeting.
Still, that delay in facing the Wildcats may end up benefiting the Hawkeyes, as they'll be getting a weakened Northwestern squad in Evanston on Saturday afternoon. Starting guard Ty Berry (11.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 43.3 3FG%) was ruled out for the remainder of the season after suffering a torn meniscus a few weeks ago.
Another starting wing, Ryan Langborg (12.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 41.7 3FG%)), missed Northwestern's last game (a 68-61 win at Maryland) with an ankle injury. Langborg is listed as "questionable" for today's game.
A win over Northwestern alone won't get Iowa into the NCAA Tournament. But a win would be another solid addition to Iowa's resume as another Quad 1 victory and it would keep the bubble dreams ticking along for a while longer. A loss might not entirely sink Iowa's bubble hopes, but it would definitely put the Hawkeyes in a precarious position.
PROJECTED NORTHWESTERN STARTING FIVE
G Boo Buie (6'2", 180, 18.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 5.2 apg, 42.9 FG%, 41.0 3FG%)
G Brooks Barnhizer (6'6", 215, 14.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.6 apg, 43.5 FG%, 34.8 3FG%)
G Ryan Langborg (6'4", 195, 12.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 2.6 apg, 43.2 FG%, 41.7 3FG%)
F Nick Martinelli (6'7", 200, 8.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 51.0 FG%, 30.6 3FG%)
C Matthew Nicholson (7'0", 280, 5.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.8 apg, 65.3 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)
if Langborg is unable to play, he'd likely be replaced by Blake Smith (6'6", 175, 1.6 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 100% FG (1/1), 0.0 3FG%)
Northwestern has gotten to 20-6 overall and 11-6 in the Big Ten -- good for 3rd place, currently -- on the back of a strong offense (Northwestern has the third-most efficient offense in the league in Big Ten games) and a credible enough defense (ninth in defensive efficiency in the league in Big Ten games). By comparison, Iowa ranks fourth in the league in offensive efficiency and 13th in defensive efficiency in Big Ten games.
The two biggest strengths for the Wildcats have been shooting the ball and preventing turnovers. Northwestern ranks fifth in the league in eFG% in Big Ten games (52.9%), but their success there is a result of precise outside shooting -- the Wildcats have shot 41.9% from deep in Big Ten games this season, best in the conference. That's offset much softer shooting numbers inside the arc (47.4% on 2-point field goal attempts, 11th in the league).
Northwestern's other main offensive strength is protecting the ball. The Wildcats turn the ball over on just 12.7% possessions in league games, the best mark in the Big Ten. Iowa has turned the ball over on just 14.1% of possessions in league games, the 3rd-best mark in the Big Ten. These are two teams that are very good at taking care of the ball; whichever team does the best job of avoiding turnovers on Saturday figures to have an edge in securing the victory.
Offensive rebounding isn't a priority for Northwestern -- the Wildcats have collected their own misses on just 25% of offensive possessions in Big Ten play, which ranks 12th in the league. The Wildcats also don't get to the free throw line that much; they rank just ninth in the league in free throw rate in Big Ten games.
On defense, Northwestern's strengths have been forcing turnovers and keeping opponents off the offensive glass. The Wildcats have forced turnovers on 17.9% of opponent possessions in Big Ten games, which ranks 4th best in the league. Unsurprisingly, they've also ranked 4th in steal rate in Big Ten games, with steals on 9.8% of opponent possessions. Northwestern also ranks 5th in the league in preventing opponents from getting offensive rebounds; foes have grabbed 28.3% of available offensive boards against Wildcats in Big Ten games.
What Northwestern does not do well on defense is contest shots. The Wildcats rank 14th in the league in opponent effective FG%; teams have posted a 53.8% effective field goal rate against Northwestern in league games this season. Opponents have been good at converting 2-point attempts (52.9%) and efforts from long range (36.9%). Welsh-Ryan Arena hasn't always been the friendliest gym for Iowa's offense, but this year's Northwestern team might struggle to stop Iowa's shooters more than most.
The star for Northwestern -- especially with the other backcourt injuries at the moment -- is senior guard and team leader Boo Buie. Buie leads the team in scoring (18.6 ppg) and assists (5.2 apg). Buie gets to the free throw line often (his 139 attempts is 7th most in the Big Ten) and converts effectively when he gets there (his 84.7% rate at the line is 6th best in the league). Buie, like several Northwestern players, has been elite from deep too -- he's taken a team-high 161 3-point attempts this season and made 66 of them, a 41% conversation rate.
Buie is one of three Wildcats shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc this season -- but he might also be the only one of the three-point musketeers available on Saturday. Ty Berry has shot 43% (55-of-127) from long range this season, but he won't be available to the Wildcats. Ryan Langborg has made 41.7% (60-of-144) of his deep tries this year, but as noted above, his status for today's game is questionable.
Brooks Barnhizer is the top 3-point shooter for Northwestern after that trio; he's made 34.8% (31-of-89) of his long range efforts this year. Barnhizer has been an effective complement to Buie all season; he's the team's second-leading scorer at 14.3 ppg and the leading rebounder at 7.2 rpg. His prowess on the boards is an area Iowa will have to be prepared to counter -- he's finished in double figures in rebounds in four of the last five games.
In the absence of Berry, sophomore Nick Martinelli has grabbed his spot in the starting lineup and taken up a much larger role in the offense. Martinelli had 13 points and 13 rebounds in Northwestern's win over Indiana two weeks ago and is coming off a career-high 27-point effort against Maryland. Martinelli isn't much of a 3-point (just 30.6% from deep on 36 attempts this season), but he went 9-of-12 inside the arc and 9-of-10 at the line against the Terps.
Matthew Nicholson and Luke Hunger have been Northwestern's primary bigs this season, though neither occupies a large role in the Wildcat offense. Nicholson has the lowest usage rate among Northwestern's starters and has averaged just 5.5 ppg and 4.4 rpg this year. Hunger, his main backup, has averaged 3.8 ppg and 1.6 rpg this season.
The keys to beating Northwestern on Saturday look fairly straightforward for Iowa, at least on paper -- guard the three-point line, don't put the Wildcats on the free throw line, and don't turn the ball over. While it sometimes seems like every Big Ten game turns into the 3-point shooting contest at the All-Star Game for Iowa's opponents, the Hawkeyes actually rank sixth in the league in defending 3-pointers this season. Opponents have made 34.6% of their long range shots against Iowa in Big Ten games this season, which ranks 6th in the league.
Northwestern ranks just 9th in league games in free throw rate and sixth in league games at converting free throw rates (75.8%), but the Wildcats do have several very good free throw shooters. Free throws helped carry Northwestern past Indiana (22-of-28 versus 12-of-21 for the Hoosiers) and Maryland (28-of-31 versus 17-of-24 for the Terps). That free throw shooting display against Maryland made up for a dismal 2-of-13 effort from 3-point range.
In terms of turnovers, you have the Big Ten's 4th best defense at forcing them (Northwestern) up against the Big Ten's 3rd best offense at avoiding them (Iowa). Iowa has fared well against the Big Ten's other top turnover-forcing defenses, though -- Rutgers, Penn State, and Michigan State rank 1-2-3 in that category this season and Iowa's gone 3-1 against them this year.
Payton Sandfort has been on a tear of late -- in addition to logging the first-ever triple-double in the history of Iowa men's basketball against Penn State, he's also scored 18+ in five of the last six games. But he'll also need help -- will it be from Tony Perkins? Owen Freeman? Ben Krikke? Josh Dix? At least two of those four will likely need to have strong games for Iowa to get out of Evanston with a win. If a few of those players are able to step up, though, and Sandfort continues his recent tear, Iowa ought to have a shot to get its first win in Evanston since 2021.
