WHO: Northwestern Wildcats (15-13, 6-11 Big Ten)
WHEN: 8:00 PM CT (Friday, February 28, 2025)
WHERE: Welsh Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)
TV: FS1 (Connor Onion, LaPhonso Ellis)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Northwestern -4.5 (total of 150.5)
KENPOM: Northwestern -5 (70% chance of winning)
Iowa and Northwestern last met at the very beginning of the Big Ten season, back in December. You probably remember how that game ended. If not, here's a little reminder:
Since then, not much has gone right for Iowa -- or Northwestern. Injuries have ravaged both teams since then and sent them spiraling down the Big Ten standings. In fact, Northwestern and Iowa enter Friday's game with identical records: 15-13 overall, 6-11 against Big Ten opposition.
At this point neither team can aspire to much more than claiming one of the final spots in the Big Ten Tournament. (In the new 18-team Big Ten, only the top 15 teams in the conference will qualify for the Big Ten Tournament.) Currently, Iowa and Northwestern are part of a 4-team tie for 13th in the league (along with USC and Minnesota).
The winner of Friday's game won't be assured anything, but will have a leg up in the battle for one of the final spots in the Big Ten Tournament. The loser won't be officially eliminated from anything, but will face a steep path to qualification.
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 8.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 5.4 apg, 44.5 FG%, 38.4 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 14.1 ppg; 3.1 rpg; 2.7 apg; 51.6 FG%; 42.7 3FG%)
F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.4 ppg; 6.1 rpg; 3.0 apg; 40.3 FG%; 34.0 3FG%)
F Seydou Traore (6'7", 220 lbs; 6.1 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.3 apg, 43.2 FG%, 24.1 3FG%)
F Ladji Dembele (6'8", 255 lbs; 4.3 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 0.5 apg; 45.7 FG%, 43.3 3FG%)
PROJECTED NORTHWESTERN STARTING LINEUP
G Jordan Clayton (6'2", 190 lbs; 3.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 30.4 FG%, 27.3 3FG%)
G Ty Berry (6'3", 190 lbs; 10.2 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.1 apg, 40.0 FG%, 38.7 3FG%)
F Justin Mullins (6'6", 200 lbs; 4.1 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.3 apg, 47.8 FG%, 28.6 3FG%)
F Nick Martinelli (6'7", 220 lbs; 20.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.6 apg, 47.2 FG%, 37.3 3FG%)
C Matthew Nicholson (7'0", 280 lbs; 5.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.3 apg, 62.0 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)
PREVIEW
If anyone team has been hit harder by injuries than Iowa in the Big Ten, it's probably Northwestern. The Wildcats have lost both Brooks Barnhizer and Jalen Leach to season-ending injuries. Barnhizer was second on the team in scoring (17.1 ppg) and led the Wildcats in rebounding (8.8 rpg) and assists (4.2 apg). Leach was third on the team in scoring (14.3 ppg) and the Wildcats' best three-point shooter (39.4%).
Still, Northwestern has gone 3-4 since losing Barnhizer and 2-3 since losing Leach, including back-to-back road wins over Ohio State and Minnesota entering this game. Suffice to say, even without two key players, the Wildcats appear to enter tonight's game on better footing than the Hawkeyes.
"They're dramatically different," Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery said of the current Northwestern squad. "They don't have Leach and Barnhizer. So the other guys have really done a good job of stepping up -- [KJ] Windham, [Jordan] Clayton. Ty Berry has always been a really good player in our league [but he] has really taken his game to another level."
Indeed, Berry has averaged 15.3 ppg since entering the starting lineup in Barnhizer's absence, including a pair of 23-point efforts against Nebraska and Oregon a few weeks ago. He's been especially potent from beyond the arc since then, going 20-of-51 (39.2%) from long range over the last seven games.
Junior forward Nick Martinelli was already playing very well before the injuries to Barnhizer and Leach, but he's continued to produce at an extremely high level. Over the last seven games, Martinelli is averaging 23.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.7 apg for the Wildcats. He's clearly the primary option for Northwestern's offense and slowing him down should be priority number one for the Iowa defense.
As McCaffery noted, freshman guard KJ Windham is another guard who's made significant contributions since Barnhizer and Leach went out. Windham had 15 points in Northwestern's win over Ohio State and 20 in the loss to Oregon (on 4-of-7 shooting from deep). He's also finished with zero points in two of the last five games, so there's definite feast-or-famine potential with him.
Big man Matthew Nicholson is another important contributor for the Wildcats; he had 10 points and four rebounds in the win over Ohio State. That said, he's also been held under 10 points in five of his last six games, so he hasn't a great deal of consistency on the offensive end. He had just one point and six rebounds in Iowa's win over Northwestern in December, but could be in line for a bigger outing with no Owen Freeman on the floor to counter him.
More than anything Northwestern does, though, the biggest key on Friday night may be whether Iowa can find a way to play 40 good minutes of basketball on the road. That's been an almost impossible task for the Hawkeyes this season, Iowa is 1-7 in road games with an average margin of defeat of 18.6 points in those seven losses. The Hawkeyes have played good halves on the road, but rarely a full game -- even the lone road win (at Rutgers) was more of a function of one really good half (51 points in the second half) overcoming another poor half.
So can Iowa find a way to play 40 minutes of quality basketball in Evanston? If they can, then the Hawkeyes can retain ambitions of heading to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Tournament. If they can't, then a frustrating season will be even closer to coming to a close.