Published Jan 27, 2025
PREVIEW: Iowa MBB at Ohio State (2025)
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: Ohio State Buckeyes (11-8, 3-5 Big Ten)

WHEN: 7:00 PM CT (Monday, January 27, 2025)

WHERE: Value City Arena (Columbus, OH)

TV: FS1 (Jeff Levering and Stephen Bardo)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)

MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile

ONLINE: foxsports.com/live

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @CBBonFOX | @IowaonBTN

LINE: Ohio State -7.5 (total of 155.5)

KENPOM: Ohio State-8 (OSU 77% chance of winning)

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After a pair of games at home, Iowa returns to the road to take on an Ohio State team that's run hot and cold this season. The Buckeyes went 8-3 in non-conference action this year, beating Texas and Kentucky on neutral sites, but losing to Pitt and Auburn.

League play has been rocky as well, as the Buckeyes are just 3-5 in Big Ten play (and a half-game behind the Hawkeyes in the standings). Ohio State is coming off its best win of the season, a 73-70 win over Purdue that snapped a three-game losing streak. The Buckeyes should also be well-rested, having not played since last Tuesday.

PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP             

G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 9.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 6.2 apg; 45.5 FG%; 39.7 3FG%)

G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 13.9 ppg; 3.2 rpg; 3.0 apg; 54.3 FG%; 46.7 3FG%)

G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195; 10.2 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.2 apg, 53.5 FG%, 40.7 3FG%)

F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.2 ppg; 5.8 rpg; 3.0 apg; 40.9 FG%; 34.5 3FG%)

C Owen Freeman (6'10", 245 lbs; 16.9 ppg; 6.7 rpg; 1.3 apg; 65.0 FG%; 35.7 3FG%)

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PROJECTED OHIO STATE STARTING LINEUP          

G Bruce Thornton (6'2", 215 lbs; 17.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.3 apg; 52.3 FG%, 41.8 3FG%)

G John Mobley (6'1", 175 lbs; 12.3 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.8 apg; 41.3 FG%, 43.0 3FG%)

F Micah Parrish (6'6", 205 lbs; 11.2 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.7 apg; 45.6 FG%, 38.5 3FG%)

F Devin Royal (6'6", 220 lbs; 13.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.3 apg; 53.0 FG%, 20.0 3FG%)

C Sean Stewart (6'9", 220 lbs; 5.0 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 0.7 apg; 52.9 FG%, 50.0 3FG%)

PREVIEW           

Despite that 11-8 overall record, Ohio State is still well-liked by the advanced metrics -- the Buckeyes are 30th in the most recent KenPom rankings and 29th in the latest NET ratings. Ohio State rates well in both offensive (42nd) and defensive efficiency (20th).

On defense, the Buckeyes' biggest strength has been contesting shots and not allowing easy buckets. Ohio State has allowed opponents to post a 45.6 effective FG%, which ranks 22nd nationally. The Buckeyes have been especially good at defending the three; teams have made just 29.1% (18th) of their long-range efforts this year. They've been very strong inside the arc as well, allowing opponents to convert only 46.9% of their 2-point shots.

On offense, Ohio State's biggest strength has been shot-making -- the Buckeyes are 36th in effective FG% (55.2%). That's been fueled by strong shooting inside (54.5% on 2-point shots, 73rd) and outside (37.6% on 3-point tries, 32nd). Ohio State has also been good at at avoiding turnovers (16.4% of possessions, 107th), although that's almost entirely a function of not giving up steals (just 6.0% of possessions, best in the nation). The Buckeyes have had a lot of non-steal turnovers -- 10.4% of possessions, which ranks 349th nationally.

"[Bruce] Thornton is a really special player," Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery said ahead of the game. "I've been impressed with him from the minute he came into this league. He's the true definition of a gamer. [He has a] really good feel, really intelligent guy. You surround him with good players, it makes him even that much more difficult to deal with. They have a really talented group. But it starts with him, he's the key to it all."

As McCaffery noted, junior guard Bruce Thornton is the focal point of the Ohio State offense. A quick, physical guard with the ability to get downhill and penetrate and break down defenses, he leads the Buckeyes in scoring (17.1 ppg) and assists (4.3 apg). He's also one of the team's best outside shooters, converting 33-of-79 (41.8%) of his efforts from deep. Drew Thelwell and Josh Dix will likely be tasked with slowing down Thornton and their ability to do so will likely determine whether Iowa will have a shot at the upset or not.

Freshman John Mobley and senior Micah Parrish, a San Diego State transfer, are two other dangerous options for the Buckeyes on the perimeter/wings. Mobley is averaging 12.3 ppg, and is actually shooting better on 3-point tries (43-of-103, 41.7%) than 2-point efforts (31-of-76, 40.8%). Parrish has averaged 11.2 ppg and 4.6 rpg while being a major weapon from long range (30-of-78, 38.5%) as well.


Devin Royal has also been a key player for the Buckeyes; the sophomore forward ranks second on the team in scoring 13.9 ppg and leads the squad in rebounding at 7.3 rpg. He's not much of an outside threat (just 6-of-30, 20%), but he's lethal around the rim (81-of-134, 60.4%).

Down low, Duke transfer Sean Stewart has been getting the starts (18 games), but he's been splitting time with 7'1" sophomore Aaron Bradshaw as well. Both players are averaging around 18 minutes per game, with Stewart averaging 6.0 ppg and 6.1 rpg, while Bradshaw has contributed 7.1 ppg and 3.1 rpg. It wouldn't be a surprise to see them lean on Bradshaw more against Iowa to try and counter Owen Freeman in the post.