WHO: Penn State Nittany Lions (11-11, 5-6 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Thursday, February 8, 2024)
WHERE: Bryce Jordan Center (University Park, PA)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -1.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -1 (Iowa 83, Penn State 82; Iowa 54% chance of winning)
Penn State has not been the easiest team to figure out this season. They're not particularly good -- the 11-11 overall record and 92nd ranking in the KenPom rankings attests to that. But they're also 5-6 in Big Ten play (same as Iowa), winners of two in a row (both on the road), and 8-3 at home. That home record includes a win over Wisconsin and a narrow loss to Northwestern -- as well as a pair of 9-point losses to Bucknell and Minnesota. (Like I said, hard to figure out.)
This is a year of transition -- former head coach Micah Shrewsberry left for Notre Dame in the offseason and his replacement, VCU's Mike Rhoads, used the transfer portal to completely remake the team. Rhoads has kept Penn State from completely cratering in his first season and they've been competitive enough to trade punches with some of the Big Ten's best at times.
Iowa has won two of its previous three road games (and had a late lead in that third road game, at Indiana) and enters this game off a much-needed win over Ohio State last Friday night. The Hawkeyes should also be well-rested for this encounter, with almost a full week between games.
PROJECTED PENN STATE STARTING FIVE
G Ace Baldwin (6'1", 190 lbs, 13.6 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 5.2 apg, 2.8 spg, 39.5 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)
G D'Marco Dunn (6'5", 195 lbs, 7.1 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 0.7 apg, 42.1 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)
F Nick Kern (6'6', 200 lbs, 7.6 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 1.4 apg, 52.6 FG%, 15.4 3FG%)
F Zach Hicks (6'8", 200 lbs, 6.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.0 apg, 32.9 FG%, 30.6 3FG%)
C Qudus Wahab (6'11", 245 lbs, 9.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 0.5 rpg, 64.2 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)
When Mike Rhoads arrived at Penn State in the offseason, he hit the transfer portal hard to fill out the roster. In addition to bringing Ace Baldwin and Nick Kern with him from VCU, Rhoads brought in starting big man Qudus Wahab from Georgetown and rotation pieces D'Marco Dunn and Puff Johnson from North Carolina. He also added Zach Hicks from Temple, Lee O'Boyle from Lafayette, and RayQuawndis Mitchell from UMKC. Penn State's starting five in this game could feature five players who weren't in State College a year ago.
The only notable holdover from last year's Penn State team was guard Kanye Clary, who stayed with the program after Micah Shrewsberry left for Penn State. Clary has exploded this season -- he's leading PSU in scoring with 18.4 ppg (6th in the Big Ten), along with 3.2 rpg and 2.8 apg. Unfortunately for Penn State, he's also injured and listed as "day-to-day" for tonight's game.
So far Penn State has been able to overcome Clary's absence, though -- he also missed the previous two games, a 15-point road win over Rutgers and a 14-point road win over Indiana. Ace Baldwin has taken over more of the scoring load without Clary; he led PSU with 15 points in the win over Rutgers and with 22 points in the win over Indiana. D'Marco Dunn replaced Clary in the starting lineup and had 14 points against Rutgers and 10 against Indiana.
Baldwin is the only other PSU player scoring in double figures this season (13.1 ppg), though five other players are averaging between 6-10 ppg. Qudus Wahab is PSU's main interior threat, averaging 9.5 ppg, though his threat is generally limited to the painted area -- he's converting 64.2% of his 2-point attempts this season and has not even attempted a 3-pointer. PSU is not a good 3-point shooting team overall and if Clary (shooing 38% from deep) is unavailable, then lightly-used Jameel Brown (who averages around nine minutes per game) is the only other PSU shooter averaging better than 33% from deep (38.5%).
Penn State ranks 6th in the league in scoring at 76 ppg, though that's more of a function of the tempo they play at (70.2 possessions per game, 60th nationally) than their proficiency on offense. Penn State ranks 82nd nationally in offensive efficiency and 10th in the Big Ten in offensive efficiency.
And offense is their stronger side of the ball -- the Nittany Lions rank 119th nationally and 11th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. Only Ohio State, Iowa, and Michigan rank lower in the Big Ten.
Penn State's biggest strength is around turnovers -- on defense, PSU has been very good at forcing them -- 22.1% of opponent possessions end in turnovers, which ranks 17th nationally, including a 12.7% steal rate (22nd nationally). Penn State's defense also ranks 41st nationally in non-steal turnovers. On offense, PSU has only turned the ball over on 15.1% of possessions, which ranks 55th nationally. Only 7.9% of their possessions have ended in steals, 51st nationally.
Penn State has been stronger shooting the ball around the rim -- the Nittany Lions have converted 52.1% of 2-point attempts (110th nationally), versus only 31.5% of 3-point attempts (277th nationally). That's the reverse of their defensive strengths -- opponents are making just 30.9% of their 3-point attempts against Penn State (41st nationally), but 53.3% of their 2-point tries (297th). This could be a game to feed Owen Freeman in the post and for Tony Perkins and Co. to attack the rim. (Penn State also ranks just 257th in defensive block rate).
This is not just a winnable road game for Iowa, it's arguably the most winnable road game left on the schedule for the Hawkeyes. Iowa's road trips after this are at Maryland, Michigan State, Illinois, and Northwestern, which are not the most hospitable away environments. KenPom gives Iowa no better than a 41% chance in any of those road games, compared to a 54% chance in tonight's game.
Getting that win is going to take a focused effort, as well as some good shooting on offense and a commitment to play defense and rebound that's sometimes been lacking on the road this season. We've certainly seen Iowa play well enough on the road this season to win a game like this; we've also seem them play poorly enough on the road to lose this game by double-digits. Which Iowa team shows up for 40 minutes tonight will determine whether Iowa's able to get back to .500 in the Big Ten standings, or if the Hawkeyes will sink a little bit further in the league.
