WHO: USC Trojans (10-6, 2-3 Big Ten)
WHEN: 9:30 PM CT (Tuesday, January 14, 2025)
WHERE: Galen Center (Los Angeles, CA)
TV: FS1 (Guy Haberman, Casey Jacobsen)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @CBBonFOX | @IowaonBTN
LINE: USC -2.5 (total of 162.5)
KENPOM: Iowa -1 (Iowa 53% chance of winning)
What a difference a week makes -- for both Iowa and USC. Iowa entered last week off a demoralizing, thoroughly one-sided 116-85 drubbing at Wisconsin; the Hawkeyes responded with two of their best games of the season, topping Nebraska in overtime 97-87 after a big second half surge and dismantling Indiana 85-60 on the weekend.
The Trojans didn't have quite as good a week as the Hawkeyes -- USC lost 82-69 at Indiana in mid-week -- but they picked up one of the most surprising road wins of the Big Ten season so far on Saturday, dropping Illinois 82-72 in Champaign. The Trojans return home for a stretch of four of the next five games at home with some extra confidence after that strong win over the Illini.
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 9.8 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 6.1 apg; 45.0 FG%; 39.6 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 14.6 ppg; 3.5 rpg; 2.9 apg; 56.1 FG%; 47.9 3FG%)
G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195; 10.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.2 apg, 56.7 FG%, 40.0 3FG%)
F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.9 ppg; 5.8 rpg; 3.3 apg; 41.3 FG%; 35.2 3FG%)
C Owen Freeman (6'10", 245 lbs; 16.6 ppg; 6.7 rpg; 1.4 apg; 63.1 FG%; 33.3 3FG%)
PROJECTED USC STARTING LINEUP
G Desmond Claude (6'6", 205; 15.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.9 apg, 51.2 FG%, 29.2 3FG%)
G Wesley Yates (6'4", 200; 10.0 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.3 apg, 46.2 FG%, 33.3 3FG$%)
F Chibuzo Agbo (6'7", 225; 12.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.6 apg, 38.8 FG%, 38.8 3FG%)
F Saint Thomas (6'7", 220; 9.7 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 3.9 apg, 42.8 FG%, 29.2 3FG%)
C Josh Cohen (6'10", 220; 8.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.4 apg, 64.6 FG%, 16.7 3FG%)
PREVIEW
The Trojans have had a rocky start to their first season in the Big Ten, going 2-3 in their first five games in the league. The Trojans' season stats reflect their somewhat-middling 10-6 overall record; USC ranks 87th nationally in offensive efficiency and 63rd in defensive efficiency. They've been better of late, though, reflected in that win over Illinois over the weekend.
"They've been really impressive recently," Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery said. "Obviously, going to Illinois and winning -- that was an incredibly impressive performance on a number of different levels, not the least of which was out-rebounding a team that was #1 in the country in rebounding."
On the defensive side of the ball, the Trojans' biggest strength has been forcing turnovers -- they've generated turnovers on 19.3% of opponent possessions, which ranks 86th nationally. Most of those turnovers haven't been steals -- just 9.5% of opponent possessions (196th) have led to USC steals, but they have generated non-steal turnovers on 9.7% of opponent possessions (23rd).
USC has also been solid but not outstanding at contesting shots; opponents have posted an effective FG% of 48.9% (111th), including 50.4% (157th) on 2-point attempts and 31.1% on 3-point tries (70th). The Trojans have also been decent at keeping opponents off the offensive glass, allowing teams to collect just 28.8% of available offensive rebounds (126th).
On offense, USC has been good at getting to the free throw line (58th in free throw rate), and they've been a decent shooting team. The Trojans have an effective FG% of 52.8% this season, led by 54.2% shooting on 2-point attempts. USC has been less effective from long range, making just 33.3% (180th) of 3-point tries.
"[USC has] a lot of really good players," McCaffery said. "Eric [Musselman]'s one of the most established coaches in our profession, was a head coach at the NBA level, at the highest levels of college. When you take over a new job now, you've got to get a bunch of different guys and get them to play together. It was understandable that it would take him a little bit of time and I think he's done a masterful job of that."
The Trojans' top player this season -- and leading scorer -- has been junior guard Desmond Claude, who leads the team in scoring (15.9 ppg) and assists (3.9 apg). The Xavier transfer has scored 13+ points in his last nine games and is coming off his best game of the season, with 31 points in the upset win over Illini.
Notably, Claude scored 31 without making a single three-pointer -- he shot 12-of-18 inside the arc (and 0-of-2 from deep) and went 7-of-7 at the free throw line. That scoring approach is in keeping with Claude's m.o. for the entire season -- he's only attempted 24 three-pointers this season (making 29.2% of those attempts) versus 140 2-point attempts.
Chibuzo Agbo, a Boise State transfer, has been USC's second-leading scorer at 12.4 ppg this year and the Trojans' top outside shooter. Agbo's made 38 of 98 triples (38.8%) this season versus just 21 of 54 shots (38.9%) from inside the arc. Wesley Yates III is the third USC starter averaging double figures in scoring at 10.0 ppg, on 46.2% shooting from the field and 33.3% shooting from three-point range.
The Trojans have used a 1-2 punch down low, with Josh Cohen, a UMass transfer, getting the start and Rashaun Agee, a Bowling Green transfer, substituting in as well. Cohen has averaged 8.7 ppg and 2.6 rpg in 15.6 minutes per game, while Agee has contributed 4.9 ppg and 2.7 rpg in 12.8 minutes a game.
Saint Thomas, a Northern Colorado transfer, has been the final starter and a bit of a jack-of-all-trades for the Trojans, adding 9.7 ppg and a team-best 6.0 rpg along with 3.9 apg. Thomas has shot 42.8% from the field and 29.2% from 3-point range.
