Preview: Iowa MBB vs Auburn (NCAA Tournament)
WHO: 9-seed Auburn Tigers (20-12, 10-8 SEC)
WHEN: 5:50 PM CT (Thursday, March 16, 2023)
WHERE: Legacy Arena (Birmingham, AL)
TV: TNT (Jim Nantz, Bill Raftery, and Tracy Wolfson)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin and Bobby Hansen) | XM 201 or SXM 964
MOBILE: March Madness Live
ONLINE: March Madness Live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Auburn -1.0
KENPOM: Auburn -1 (54% chance of winning)
PROJECTED STARTING FIVE
Iowa
G Tony Perkins (12.5 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.4 bpg, 44.4 FG%, 33.8 3FG%)
G Ahron Ulis (6.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 2.2 apg, 0.5 spg, 0.1 bpg, 40.1 FG%, 32.8 3FG%)
F Connor McCaffery (6.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.0 bpg, 37.8 FG%, 33.0 3FG%)
F Kris Murray (20.4 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 2.0 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 bpg, 48.4 FG%, 33.9 3FG%)
F Filip Rebraca (14.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.1 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.0 bpg, 57.1 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)
Auburn
G Wendell Green (13.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 4.2 apg, 1.7 spg, 0.1 bpg, 36.3 FG%, 29.5 3FG%)
G KD Johnson (8.8 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.3 bpg, 38.3 FG%, 32.7 3FG%)
F Allen Flanigan (10.1 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.3 bpg, 44.7 FG%, 35.0 3FG%)
F Jaylin Williams (11.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.8 bpg, 46.8 FG%, 35.8 3FG%)
C Johni Broome (14.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.9 spg, 2.3 bpg, 52.9% FG, 27.6 3FG%)
PREVIEW
Auburn expected to be back in the NCAA Tournament -- but not in the 8/9 game. The Tigers were ranked as high as #11 in the AP Poll this season and spent a total of 15 weeks ranked. That was all before the bottom dropped out on their season, though. After a 16-3 start overall (including a 6-1 mark in SEC games), Auburn went just 4-9 to finish the season.
That said, Auburn isn't too far off from a much better record on the season and a different narrative for the season. Six of those nine losses were by five points or fewer, and four were one-possession losses. If a few different bounces go their way or a few different shots go in, the outlook could look different for this team.
Shooting is not a strong suit of this Auburn team, though. Despite an offensive efficiency rating that's in the Top 50 in the nation, the Tigers were just 223rd nationally in effective FG% (49.6%). They were one of the nation's worst 3-point shooting teams (31.4%, 315th) and also fairly poor at the free throw line (70.4%, 244th). The Tigers also had a tendency to turn the ball over a lot (18.1% turnover rate, 172nd), especially via steals (10.4% steal rate, 310th).
The Tigers were decent at converting 2-point attempts (51%, 145th), but their offensive strengths this season have been on the offensive glass and getting to the free throw line. Auburn posted a 33.3% offensive rebounding rate (44th), so the Tigers are very good at collecting their misses and getting second chance shot opportunities.
The Tigers also ranked 67th in free throw rate and average around 21 trips to the line per game (making about 15 of those attempts per game, on average). Of course, one of Iowa's defensive strengths is not fouling (Iowa ranks 12th nationally in defensive free throw rate); if the Hawkeyes can win that battle in this game, they can prevent Auburn from getting easy points at the free throw line.
Auburn has been rocky at times offensively this season, but defense is where the Tigers have been at their best. Auburn ranks 28th in defensive efficiency on the season, with most of that success a result of contesting shots. Auburn ranks 12th nationally in effective FG% on defense, allowing opponents to make just 45.6% of their shots. The Tigers have had strong rim protection, leading to Top 10 numbers in block rate (13.8%). 6'10" sophomore center Johni Broome has been swatting shots at an elite level, averaging over two blocks per game.
The Tigers have been very good at defending 2-point shots (46.9%, 48th), but absolutely elite at preventing 3-point makes (28.8%, 5th). That said, Auburn ranks just 78th in defensive 3-point rate, so teams are still managing to attempt 3-point shots at a decent clip against the Tigers -- they're just not going in. There's a bit of good luck involved in that, but at this point in the season you also have to tip your hat to the Auburn defense -- they've been excellent at preventing opponents from getting hot from 3 this season.
Auburn has also been good at forcing turnovers (101st in turnover rate), especially steals (11.6% steal rate, 37th). Curiously, two of Auburn's biggest strengths on offense -- offensive rebounding and free throw rate -- are two of its biggest weaknesses on defense. The Tigers allow opponents to grab almost 32% of their misses (317th) and rank just 330th in defensive free throw rate. Opponents scored almost a quarter (23%) of their points at the free throw line this season -- potentially good news for an Iowa team that's (usually) good at the line.
Broome, a transfer from Morehead State, has been a force down low for Auburn, leading the team in scoring (14.0 ppg) and posting nine double-doubles on the season. He's a strong rebounder (8.4 per game) and, as noted earlier, is a terrific shot blocker and rim protector. His matchup with Filip Rebraca could be a key individual battle in the game.
5'11" point guard Wendell Green, who transferred from Eastern Kentucky a season ago, is Auburn's second-leading scorer (13.8 ppg), but he's a very streaky shooter. Green averages just 41% from 2-point range and 29.5% from 3-point range, but he's gone off for 20+ points in seven games this season. He's at his best when he can attack the rim and either finish or get to the free throw line (83.5%). He's small, but very quick; Tony Perkins and Ahron Ulis figure to be tasked with stopping him in defense most of the time and they need to force him to shoot jump shots as much as possible.
KD Johnson, Auburn's other starting guard, is also pretty streaky -- he's scored in single digits in four of his last six games, but went off for 20+ in the other two games (though Auburn lost both games) -- isn't a great 3-point shooter either (32.7%). In truth, the Tigers don't have anyone you would categorize as a particularly dangerous 3-point shooter. Their best long range shooters are forward Jaylin Williams and Allen Flanigan -- and they're both shooting around 35% from deep on the season. No one on the Tigers roster is likely to be winning any 3-point shooting contests this season.
KEY FACTORS
Start Fast and Keep the Crowd Out of the Game. Thanks to a quirk of scheduling, Auburn gets to play this opening round game just two hours from their campus. Suffice to say, there will be a lot of Auburn fans in attendance for this game and this should end up feeling like a quasi-Auburn home game for the Hawkeyes.
Iowa needs to do its best to keep those Auburn fans disengaged, which means getting off to a fast start -- seeing shots go in early would no doubt make the Iowa players feel a lot better, too, after some rough shooting over the last two games. Iowa also needs to do what it can to prevent any big runs from Auburn that can energize the crowd -- get a bucket, get a stop, or even take a timeout to try and slow down the Tigers' momentum.
The 3-Point Battle. On one side, you have an Iowa offense that's been very streaky from 3 this season, but quite capable of burying an opponent when those long-distance shots are falling, against an Auburn defense that's been one of the nation's best at defending 3-point attempts. On the other side, you have an Auburn offense that's been generally bad at making 3s against an Iowa defense that's been equally bat at defending 3s. If either team is able to get an advantage behind the arc, it could easily definitely swing the game.
A Third Option Has to Show Up. It's possible that Auburn could nullify, or at least slow down, Iowa's most potent offensive combination, the one-two punch of Kris Murray and Filip Rebraca (around 35 ppg and 16 rpg, combined), given the Tigers' defensive acumen and their size and athleticism in the front court. If that happens, it will be even more important that other players for Iowa step up, but even if Murray and Rebraca can produce at or near their usual rate, Iowa's going to need production out of other guys as well.
Tony Perkins and Payton Sandfort are the most likely options to be that third option. Iowa is 11-2 when Sandfort scores 10 or more points in a game. Sandfort is also Iowa's best offensive rebounder outside of Murray and Rebraca and in a game where hitting the offensive glass could be important, he could be a key contributor.
Iowa is just 13-7 when Perkins hits double figures in scoring this season -- but the Hawkeyes are 6-0 when Perkins scores 18 or more points. When Tony has been really good this season, Iowa's been all but unbeatable. Perkins is capable of getting hot from behind the arc, but he's at his best when he can get into the paint and either finish at the rim, hit a floater or mid-range jumper, or get to the free throw line. Iowa needs to see an aggressive and engaged Perk on the offensive end in this game.
Guard Play. There's a cliche that guard play determines how far teams go in March, but cliches are cliches because there's truth in them -- and subpar guard play has been a big factor in Iowa's recent NCAA Tournament exits. Last season, Iowa guards combined for 20 points on 6/23 shooting against Richmond; the Spiders' Jacob Gilyard had 24 points on 8/15 shooting by himself. Two seasons ago, Iowa guards had 11 points on on 4/16 shooting in a blowout loss to Oregon; the Ducks' starting backcourt had 42 points on 16/22 shooting.
Perkins, Ulis, Sandfort, McCaffery, et al. have to at least play Auburn's guards to a draw in this game. If they get outplayed (and outscored) by Green, Johnson, and the rest of Auburn's back court contributors, Iowa's almost certainly going to be making another early exit from the NCAA Tournament.
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