WHO: Florida A&M Rattlers (2-5)
WHEN: 3:30 PM CT (Saturday, December 16, 2023)
WHERE: Wells Fargo Arena (Des Moines, IA)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -21.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -18 (Iowa 85, Iowa 67; 95% chance of Iowa winning)

On paper, Iowa and Florida A&M are teams streaking in different directions -- Iowa enters Saturday afternoon's game on a three-game losing streak, while the Rattlers enter on a two-game winning streak. Those respective streaks aren't likely to factor into the outcome of this game very much, though.

For one, Iowa's three losses came against teams ranked 4th (Purdue), 17th (Iowa State), and 41st (Michigan) in the current KenPom rankings. Florida A&M's two wins came against Presbyterian (296th) and LeMoyne Owen, a Division II school. Prior to their recent mini-turnaround in form, the Rattlers had lost their first five games of the season by an average margin of 23.8 points per game.

The Rattlers (322nd in KenPom) have far more in common with the five non-conference opponents Iowa has already beaten this season than the three power conference non-conference teams and two Big Ten foes that handed the Hawkeyes five losses this season.

G K'Jei Parker (6'1", 190, 10.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.3 spg, 45.5 FG%, 29.4 3FG%)
G Jordan Chatman (6'5", 208, 2.6 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 0.9 apg, 33.3 FG%, 37.5 3FG%)
F Hantz Louis-Jeune (6'6", 180, 9.9 pp, 3.9 rpg, 1.9 apg, 51.9 FG%, 47.1 3FG%)
F Keith Lamar (6'6", 205, 14.3 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.3 spg, 45.5 FG%, 29.4 3FG%)
C Shannon Grant (6'10", 285, 9.6 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 51.7 FG%)

The main thing to know about Florida A&M? The Rattlers have one of the worst offenses in college basketball this season. Florida A&M averages 69.7 ppg, 280th in the NCAA, but they're near rock bottom in efficiency metrics. The Rattlers are 348th in offensive efficiency, mainly because they're a terrible shooting team -- 356th in effective field goal percentage (41.6%), 307th in 3-pointers (29.0 3FG%), and 355th in 2-pointers (41.1 2FG%).

The Rattlers are dead last in 3-point rate (around 20% of their field goals) and get just 18% of their points from 3-pointers (354th). Instead, they get most of its points via 2-point shots (65.8%, 2nd), even though they are -- again -- not very efficient at making 2-point shots. The one bright spot on offense for Florida A&M is free throw shooting -- the Rattlers have made 74.6% of their attempts at the stripe this year, 71st best nationally. Of course, they also don't make many trips to the free throw line -- they rank 359th in free throw rate.

Florida A&M also doesn't rebound its misses well (20.9% offensive rebounding rate, 349th nationally). The Rattlers are decent at not turning the ball over -- 147th in turnover rate (17.3%), 149th in rate of steals allowed (9.2%), and 159th in rate of non-steal turnovers allowed (8.1%).

Florida A&M combines a rock-bottom offense with a defense that also ranks near the bottom nationally in several categories -- which perhaps explains why the Rattlers lost their first five games of the season by almost 24 points a game. Florida A&M is 233rd in defensive efficiency, but teams have shot well against them (55.1 eFG%, 323rd), rebounded their own misses well (37.6%, 350th), and gotten to the free throw line often (the Rattlers rank 357th in defensive free throw rate).

The Rattlers have allowed opponents to shoot well from 3-point range (37.1%, 321st) and inside the arc (54.6%, 299th). They've also given up a lot of three-pointers -- they rank 348th in three-point rate on defense. Iowa's shooters should have ample opportunities to get shots up against the Rattler defense.

Florida A&M's primary offensive weapon this season has been 6'6" forward Keith Lamar, averaging 14.3 ppg and 6.1 rpg this season. He's not much of a 3-point threat (23%), though he is tied for the team lead with 13 triples attempted so far this season. (By comparison, Iowa has six players who have attempted 13 or more three-pointers this season.) He's not the most efficient shooter inside the arc either (44.7 2FG%), but he gets enough attempts to score at a decent clip.

The Rattlers' actual leading scorer this season is guard Love Bettis, averaging 15.3 ppg this year, but he's only played in four games this season, all off the bench, while dealing with an injury. He's played in four of Florida A&M's last five games, though, and was on the floor for 30+ minutes in the last two games, so his availability appears to be trending up. Bettis has been the Rattlers' best three-point shooter (5-of-8) and best free throw shooter (11-of-12), while also being solid on 2-point attempts (11-of-24).

Guard K'Jei Parker is the only other player averaging double figures in scoring this year (10.1), though G/F Hantz Louis-Jeune is right behind him (9.9 ppg). Parker has made only 35% of his 2-point tries and 23% of his 3-point attempts, but is 9-of-10 at the free throw line. Louis-Jeune has shot 45% on 2-point tries and 44% on 3-point attempts.

A win on Saturday isn't likely to tell us much about how this Iowa season is going to turn out. The answer to that question isn't going to come until the Hawkeyes has more games against solid (or better) opponents and shows if they can beat teams like that. If they can't, this will be a very long and painful season. If they can, then the possibility of salvaging something from this season will remain in play.

On the other hand, a loss to Florida A&M would be a glaring indicator that the problems with this Iowa team run much deeper than just "playing good teams." Teams as offensively challenged as Florida A&M aren't usually the non-conference teams that put a scare into Iowa -- but it was just last year that the Hawkeyes lost to Eastern Illinois, who had the 350th ranked offense. And after the way they've performed in the last three games, the Hawkeyes shouldn't be looking past anyone at this point.

The main things to look for in this game: can Iowa shake its trend off slow starts and can the Hawkeyes find a rhythm on offense -- especially behind the arc? An energetic start and an early lead should be a much-needed confidence boost for this team. Florida A&M doesn't look like a team that's well-equipped to stage a comeback if they get into a deep hole early, so a strong start should set Iowa up well for the rest of the game.