Preview: Iowa MBB vs Kansas State (NIT Round One)
WHO: Kansas State (19-14, 8-10 Big XII)
WHEN: 8:00 PM CT (Tuesday, March 19, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: ESPN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile espn.com/w
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live espn.com/
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -5.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -5 (Iowa 82, Kansas State 77; Iowa 66% chance of winning)
It's fair to say that 2023-24 was a step back for head coach Jerome Tang and Kansas State. After going 26-10 and advancing to the Elite 8 (a run that included wins over NCAA Tournament blue bloods like Kentucky and Michigan State), the Wildcats have come back to earth this season, going just 19-14 overall and 8-10 in league play.
Kansas State went 10-3 in non-conference action this season, although the Wildcats' resume lacked notable wins outside of Villanova and Providence. That non-conference record also included an improbable three straight wins in overtime in late November and early December. In fact, Iowa would be wise to finish its business with KSU in regulation; the Wildcats played a stunning seven overtime games this season -- and won them all.
The Wildcats' hopes of returning the NCAA Tournament largely went out the window with a stretch of seven losses in late January and early February. They did rebound to win three of their final five games, including the regular season finale at home against Iowa State. The Cyclones avenged that loss by knocking KSU out of the Big XII Tournament a week later, though.
PROJECTED KANSAS STATE STARTING FIVE
G Tylor Perry (5'11", 180 lbs, 15.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 4.4 apg, 36.5 FG%, 34.2 3FG%)
G Dai Dai Ames (6'1", 185 lbs, 4.8 ppg, 1.1 rpg, 1.9 apg, 33.1 FG%, 29.2 3FG%)
G Cam Carter (6'3", 195 lbs, 14.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.6 apg, 39.2 FG%, 31.4 3FG%)
F Arthur Kaluma (6'7", 225 lbs, 14.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 2.0 apg, 42.8 FG%, 34.8 3FG%)
C Jerrell Colbert (6'10", 235 lbs, 2.6 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 47.5 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)
K-State's Elite 8 run last year was built on a strong defense (27th in defensive efficiency) with a very solid offense as well (37th in offensive efficiency). There hasn't been any slippage on the defensive end for the Wildcats this season (22nd in the defensive efficiency), but the offense has taken a huge step back, falling to 138th in offensive efficiency.
K-State has two main problems on offense: the Wildcats turn the ball over a ton and can't shoot the ball. K-State ranks 349th in turnover rate, with giveaways on 21.3% of their possessions. That includes steals on 11.9% of their possessions (352nd) and non-steal turnovers on 9.4% of their possessions (329th). That propensity to give up the rock could be very good news for an Iowa team that thrives in transition.
The Wildcats rank 212th nationally in effective FG% (50.0%), with most of their struggles coming from beyond the arc. The Wildcats shoot quite a few threes (81st in three-point rate), but they don't make many of them, converting just 32.0% (276th) from deep this season. Again, that could be good news for an Iowa team that's struggled to defend the three-point line in several games this season.
K-State is good at collecting its own misses, grabbing 32.5% of available offensive rebounds (73rd nationally), so this is another game in which Iowa will need to put forth a strong rebounding effort -- something we haven't always seen this season. K-State is also good at getting to the free throw line (40th in free throw rate), though Iowa's own ability to defend without fouling may mitigate that advantage for KSU.
"[Kansas State] plays hard, they play defense, they're obviously battle-tested in that conference," Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery said prior to the game.
On defense, K-State isn't great at preventing opponents from hitting the offensive glass (248th) or forcing turnovers (258th), but the Wildcats have been excellent at contesting shots. Opponents have shot just 46.5% against KSU this year, which ranks 19th. They've been just as good at defending 3-point attempts (30.7% conversion rate, 25th) as 2-point tries (46.7% conversion rate, 39th). Iowa has endured some very rocking shooting nights in recent games; on paper, K-State doesn't look like the most promising opponent for Iowa to end that streak against.
K-State's poor shooting tendencies are reflected in the individual shooting efforts of the players as well; only two players in the recent starting five have a field goal percentage north of .400 this season. Guard Tylor Perry, an All-Big XII honorable mention selection, led the team in scoring (15.5 ppg), but he's done a lot of his damage at the free throw line (158-of-173, 91.3%). He's made just 43% of his 2-point attempts and only 34% of his 3-point tries (despite attempting a whopping 266 treys).
Cam Carter and Arthur Kaluma are the other two Wildcats averaging double figures in scoring this season, at 14.6 and 14.7 ppg, respectively. Kaluma is a stretch four, making 48.6% (101-of-208) of his 2-point attempts and 34.5% (50-of-145) of his 3-point tries. That 34.5% shooting from deep makes him K-State's most formidable outside shooter (albeit by mere percentage points over Perry).
Carter has attempted the second-mot triples on the team (185), despite making just 31.4% of them. Sophomore center Jerrell Colbert, a transfer from LSU, has started the last 12 games for KSU, though he's played more than 15 minutes in just five of those games. Senior big Will McNair, a transfer from Mississippi State, has been coming off the bench but playing more minutes than Colbert and averaging 7.8 ppg and 5.3 rpg in the process.
Dutch forward David N'Guessan has been a key reserve for the Wildcats as well, averaging 7.7 ppg and 6.8 rpg this season, while shooting 57.6% from the field. He also started the first 21 games of the season before shifting into a reserve role.
In the NIT, motivation matters more than matchups. Winning a game in this tournament --let alone making a run at a possible championship -- often comes down to which team wants to be there the most. Which team wants to keep playing and avoid hearing the final buzzer on their season?
For Iowa, motivation is an open question. The players and coaches have said the right things about wanting to keep playing after the recent losses to Illinois and Ohio State. "We want to keep playing, we want to keep coaching, the players want to keep playing," said McCaffery in his media availability yesterday.
Yet it's hard to overlook the fact that the effort level in both of those losses (especially the Ohio State loss in the Big Ten Tournament) was somewhat less than overwhelming, despite the fact that the Hawkeyes had a powerful motivation to win each game: Iowa needed those wins to have any shot at getting into the NCAA Tournament.
That motivation is off the table now. Can Iowa summon the effort it needs in order to rebound from those losses and pick up an NIT victory? We'll find out in a few hours.