WHO: Minnesota Golden Gophers (9-9, 1-6 Big Ten)
WHEN: 8:00 PM CT (Tuesday, January 21, 2025)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN (Kevin Kugler and Shon Morris)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @CBBonFOX | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -7.5 (total of 149.5)
KENPOM: Iowa -10 (Iowa 81% chance of winning)
Iowa returns from a miserable Los Angeles road trip badly in need of a rebound game -- and the Big Ten schedule makers couldn't have delivered a friendlier option than a home game against Minnesota. The Gophers are 9-9 overall and just 1-6 in Big Ten play. Minnesota is coming off their first league win of the year, an 84-81 overtime win over Michigan thanks to an improbable Dawson Garcia half-court heave.
Aside from the Michigan game, the Gophers have had a few other close calls in league play as well, including an 89-88 2OT loss to Ohio State two weeks ago and a 77-71 loss at Maryland last week. That said, the Gophers' other four league losses have been by an average of 18.5 points per defeat.
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 9.6 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 6.2 apg; 44.1 FG%; 38.6 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 14.8 ppg; 3.3 rpg; 2.8 apg; 56.2 FG%; 48.8 3FG%)
G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195; 10.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.1 apg, 55.5 FG%, 42.2 3FG%)
F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.2 ppg; 5.4 rpg; 3.2 apg; 41.2 FG%; 35.6 3FG%)
C Owen Freeman (6'10", 245 lbs; 16.7 ppg; 6.4 rpg; 1.2 apg; 64.9 FG%; 38.5 3FG%)
Sandfort remains day-to-day in terms of availability after the shoulder injury he suffered against UCLA. If he isn't able to go, Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery indicated that Pryce Sandfort or Ladji Dembele would likely start in his place.
PROJECTED MINNESOTA STARTING LINEUP
G Lu'Cye Patterson (6'2", 202 lbs; 11.3 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.7 apg, 35.0 FG%, 27.3 3FG%)
G Mike Mitchell (6'2", 185 lbs; 12.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 2.9 apg, 40.7 FG%, 39.7 3FG%)
F Femi Odukale (6'6", 215 lbs; 5.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.3 apg, 41.3 FG%, 20.8 3FG%)
F Parker Fox (6'8", 220 lbs; 6.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 1.1 apg, 61.0 FG%, 25.0 3FG%)
C Dawson Garcia (6'11", 235 lbs; 19.1 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 2.1 apg, 48.5 FG%, 36.1 3FG%)
PREVIEW
The Gophers rank 100th in the current KenPom rankings, by far the worst of the 18 Big Ten teams. Given that ranking, it's not too surprising that Minnesota ranks 130th in offensive efficiency (17th in the Big Ten) and 98th in defensive efficiency (16th in the league). This is not a Gopher squad that's been particularly excellent at any one thing.
On offense, Minnesota has been best at avoiding turnovers; the Gophers have only turned the ball over on 15.9% of possessions in league games, 4th best among Big Ten teams. They've been decent at collecting their own misses; they've grabbed 29.6% of their misses, which ranks 9th in the league.
In terms of shooting, Minnesota has been poor at getting to the free throw line (17th in free throw rate) and making free throws when they get there (63.7% on converting free throws). The Gophers have only made 50.2% of 2-point attempts in Big Ten action (13th), though they have converted 34.0% of shots from beyond the arc (9th), a potentially concerning number for an Iowa team that ranks last in defending the three-point line in league games (43.0%).
On defense, the Gophers' strength has been blocking shots -- they've been able to block 12.7% of opponent shots (3rd best in the league), led by Parker Fox with 1.4 blocks per game. Outside of a few blocks, though, Minnesota has struggled to contest shots -- they rank 16 in opponent effective FG% (55.6%), including 53.4% on 2-point shots (10th) and 39.5% on 3-point attempts (16th). The Gophers also haven't been able to force many turnovers (14.9% of opponent possessions, 14th), keep opponents off the glass (33.3%, 16th), or avoid sending teams to the free throw line (16th in free throw rate).
"They've had had some really good games," said McCaffery. "[They] probably should have won the Ohio State game, they played really well that game. Even some of the losses they played really well for a half. They're big, physical and the guards are playing well. So they've got a lot of weapons. They've got some veteran guys playing really well. They did a good job in the portal of adding some experience."
The Gophers do have a ton of experience -- they're likely to start a lineup with five seniors, led by Dawson Garcia, a 6'11" big leading the team in scoring (19.1 ppg) and rebounding (7.6 rpg). Garcia is also averaging 2.1 blocks + steals per game and shooting 48.5% from the floor. He's also a reasonable threat from deep, making threes at a 36.1% clip.
Two of Minnesota's other top starters arrived from the transfer portal in 6'2" guard Lu'Cye Patterson and 6'6" Femi Odukale. Patterson, a Charlotte transfer, is averaging 11.3 ppg and a team-high 3.7 apg, though he's been a largely poor shooter this season -- he's made only 41.3% of his 2-point attempts and 27.3% of his 3-point tries. Odukale, on his fourth team in four years (after stints at New Mexico State, Seton Hall, and Pitt), has done a little bit of everything -- 5.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg, and 3.3 apg. Like Patterson, he's struggled with shooting, converting just 47.5% of his 2-point tries and 20.8% of his 3-point attempts.
Senior Mike Mitchell is the final Gopher averaging double figures in scoring at 12.1 ppg, as well as 2.5 rpg and 2.9 apg. Mitchell hasn't shot all that well inside the arc (43.6%), but he's been Minnesota's most dangerous outside shooter (39.2% on 74 attempts, second-most on the team). Parker Fox is likely to be the fifth starter and has averaged 6.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, and 1.1 apg so far.
McCaffery has also taken note of freshman guard Isaac Asuma. "[He's] a really good freshman, taken his game to another level. Not surprising - you know, we watched him a lot in high school."
Asuma is averaging 6.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, and 2.3 apg in 25+ minutes off the bench. He's made 48.9% of his 2-point tries and been a solid 37.5% shooter from deep as well. He had 18 points in the Ohio State loss and 15 in the Maryland loss, so he has definite sparkplug potential.