Published Jan 7, 2025
PREVIEW: Iowa MBB vs Nebraska (2025)
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: Nebraska Cornhuskers (12-2, 2-1 Big Ten)

WHEN: 7:00 PM CT (Tuesday, January 7, 2025)

WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)

TV: Peacock (Paul Burmeister and Robbie Hummel)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)

MOBILE: peacocktv.com

ONLINE: peacocktv.com

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @NBCSports | @IowaonBTN

LINE: Iowa -4.5 (total of 160.5)

KENPOM: Iowa -1 (Iowa 52% chance of winning)

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Iowa and Nebraska enter Tuesday night's game on very different paths. The Hawkeyes were obliterated 116-85 at Wisconsin last Friday night, while the Cornhuskers picked up their best win of the season by dropping then-#15 UCLA 66-58 on Saturday. That win moved the Huskers to 12-2 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten.

Nebraska's only defeats this season have been at Michigan State and to a solid Saint Mary's team on a neutral site early in the year. The Huskers' non-conference strength of schedule wasn't great -- 236th nationally -- though it was certainly tougher overall than Iowa's non-con slate (353rd nationally).

For Iowa, if a game in early January can be said to be a must-win game, this might qualify. The Hawkeyes fell to 10-4 overall and 1-2 in the Big Ten after the loss to the Badgers and a tricky-looking road trip to USC and UCLA looms next week (after a home game against Indiana on Saturday). The Hawkeyes can ill afford several early losses or going deeply underwater in the Big Ten standings now if they want to have a shot at playing meaningful basketball in March.

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PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP      

G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 9.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 6.0 apg; 49.3 FG%; 45.5 3FG%)

G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 13.3 ppg; 3.6 rpg; 2.8 apg; 53.4 FG%; 39.6 3FG%)

G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195; 8.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.2 apg, 55.3 FG%, 38.2 3FG%)

F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.5 ppg; 5.8 rpg; 3.4 apg; 40.7 FG%; 33.7 3FG%)

C Owen Freeman (6'10", 245 lbs; 17.1 ppg; 6.5 rpg; 1.5 apg; 66.1 FG%; 40.0 3FG%)

The Iowa roster continues to look about as healthy as it's looked this entire season -- all starters and main rotation players should be available for tonight's game.

PROJECTED NEBRASKA STARTING LINEUP      

G Rollie Worster (6'5", 210 lbs; 8.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 44.1 FG%, 25.0 3FG%)

G Brice Williams (6'7", 214 lbs; 18.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.4 apg, 49.1 FG%, 40.4 3FG%)

G Juwan Gary (6'6", 226 lbs; 11.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 1.0 apg, 44.2 FG%, 35.4 3FG%)

F Berke Buyuktuncel (6'10", 244 lbs; 7.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 47.4 FG%, 29.0 3FG%)

C Braxton Meah (7'1", 264 lbs; 3.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 0.7 apg, 71.4 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)

PREVIEW   

One thing that stands out about this Nebraska team is its full embrace of the transfer portal. Only one player in Nebraska's top ten in minutes per game came to Lincoln as a recruit out of high school -- Sam Hoiberg, son of head coach Fred Hoiberg. The other nine players all started their college careers elsewhere.

Not all arrived this offseason -- starting guard Juwan Gary arrived two years ago (via Alabama) and star wing Brice Williams came to Nebraska before the 2023-24 season from Charlotte -- but the transfer portal is definitely the primary means of roster construction for this Husker squad. Of course, that's also not a new phenomenon for Hoiberg, either -- he frequently welcome transfer players when he coached at Iowa State over a decade ago as well. He's only doubled down on that transfer-heavy approach in the current portal era.

And the results from that approach have been pretty positive -- the Huskers went 23-11 last season and made the NCAA Tournament as an 8-seed and sit at 12-2 this year and are an 8-seed in ESPN's most recent Bracketology update. Nebraska brought in six players from the portal this offseason and three of those six are in the regular starting lineup.

The strength of this Nebraska team has unquestionably been its defense -- the Huskers rank 10th nationally in defensive efficiency and have been holding opponents to 64.6 ppg, 35th nationally and 2nd best in the Big Ten. Nebraska's achieved those lofty numbers by being good at everything on the defensive end.

The Huskers contest shots well -- opponents have posted an effective FG% of just 45.4% (27th) against them, including 29.2% from 3-point range (34th) and 46.8% from inside the arc (56th). They also forced a healthy amount of turnovers -- 20.4% of opponent possessions (60th), including steals on 11.5% (68th) of opponent possessions. Nebraska has been solid on the glass, allowing opponents to grab just 27.2% of their own misses (75th) and the Huskers also don't foul a lot, ranking 80th in opponent free throw rate.


On offense, Nebraska ranks 75th in offensive efficiency. The Huskers have been good at getting to the free throw line (32nd in free throw rate) and reasonably good at shooting the ball -- 52.8% in effective FG% (102nd), mainly by converting a decent amount of 2-point shots (54.1%, 96th). The Huskers are shooting 33.9% from deep a a team (151st) and don't prioritize getting offensive rebounds at all (28.0%, 240th). Nebraska also turns the ball over a fair amount -- 17.3% of possessions (160), including non-steal turnovers on 9.4% of possessions (320th).

"They run really good stuff," Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery said ahead of Tuesday night's game. "We've gotta have more ball pressure. They go and move the ball well, they've got some really good offensive players that we have to pay attention to. They have a lot of weapons so they're not an easy team to defend."

"Brice Williams is playing about as well as anyone that I've seen this year, anywhere. Veteran guy. He and Gary in particular have been tremendous," McCaffery said.

Williams has been excellent for Nebraska this season -- he leads the team with 18.8 ppg, which also ranks 4th in the Big Ten. He's making 53.3% of his 2-point attempts, but he's been lethal at the free throw line (86-of-95, 90.5%) and sharp behind the three-point line (21-of-52, 40.4%). After the way John Blackwell carved up the Iowa defense on Friday night, Williams could be licking his lips at the prospect of facing the Hawkeyes.

Juwan Gary is tied for second on the team with 11.9 ppg, while adding 3.9 rpg as well. He's shooting 50% on his 2-point attempts and 35.4% from deep. Wisconsin transfer Connor Essegian (6'4", 190) has been mainly used as a sixth man (three starts in 14 games this season), but he's been a key source of offense off the bench, with 11.9 ppg on a team-best 41.2% from long range.

Utah transfer Rollie Worster has provided a capable veteran presence at point guard; he was a multi-year starter for the Utes but had his season ended early due to injury last year. Since arriving in Lincoln, Worster is averaging 8.4 ppg, 4.2 rpg, and a team-high 2.8 apg while shooting 50.7% from 2-point range and 25% from 3-point territory. "Worster is a tremendous point guard. Another veteran guy," added McCaffery.

Bigs Berke Buyuktuncel (a 6'10" transfer from UCLA) and Braxton Meah (a 7'1" transfer from Washington) round out the Nebraska starting lineup and provide a lot of imposing size for the Huskers in the middle. Buyuktuncel averages 7.6 ppg and 6.8 rpg and a team-high 0.8 blocks per game. While Meah has started 13 of 14 games this season, he's only averaging 15.8 minutes per game and scoring 3.3 ppg and grabbing 3.8 rpg in those minutes; as a 71.4% shooter from the floor, though, he's been an almost automatic bucket when he does take a shot.

Andrew Morgan, a 6'10" big from North Dakota State, rounds out the Nebraska front court and has been another effective transfer addition for the Huskers, with 8.1 ppg and 4.9 rpg in 17.2 minutes of action per game. He and Buyuktuncel also have some floor-stretching capability as well, as they've launched a combined 38 threes this season (though they've only converted a combined 28.9% of those triples).

Finally, there will be one face in the Nebraska lineup who should be very familiar to Iowa fans -- senior guard Ahron Ulis. Ulis transferred to Nebraska before the 2023-24 season but ended up missing the entire season due to the protracted (and controversial) gambling investigation by the state of Iowa. Able to play this season, Ulis is averaging 3.3 ppg and 1.9 rpg in 14.6 minutes off the bench this season.