WHO: #2 Purdue Boilermakers (16-2, 5-2 Big Ten)
WHEN: 1:00 PM CT (Saturday, January 20, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: FS1
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Purdue -6.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Purdue -7 (Purdue 88, Iowa 81; Purdue 74% chance of winning)

The last time #2 Purdue and Iowa squared off on the basketball court, the Boilermakers were fresh off a 92-88 overtime loss to Northwestern. The game was in West Lafayette, a recent house of horrors for Iowa basketball. The result was predictable: Purdue jumped out to a big lead and pounded Iowa for 40 minutes before wrapping up an 87-68 victory.

That Iowa victory kicked off a seven-game winning streak for Purdue, before they suffered another road upset 11 days ago, at Nebraska. The Cornhuskers were red hot from outside and buried the Boilermakers under 61% shooting from deep.

Purdue bounced back from that loss with two more wins, including an 87-66 road throttling of in-state rival Indiana on Tuesday. Purdue remains, by any measure, a Big Ten title favorite and one of the very best teams in the country this season.

G Braden Smith (6'0", 175, 12.0 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 7.1 apg, 1.7 spg, 44.7 FG%, 43.5 3FG%)
G Lance Jones (6'1", 200, 11.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.4 apg, 43.8 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)
G Fletcher Loyer (6'4", 180, 11.4 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 1.8 apg, 41.7 FG%, 43.8 3FG%)
F Mason Gillis (6'6", 225, 6.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, 52.1 FG%, 50.0 3FG%)
C Zach Edey (7'4", 300, 22.9 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.2 bpg, 62.7 FG%, 75.6% FT)

In the first Iowa-Purdue game this season, the Boilermakers got a monster game from National Player of the Year favorite Zach Edey (25 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks), but what really enabled them to turn the game into a one-sided rout was the contributions they got from the rest of the lineup. Edey was one of five Purdue players to score in double figures in that game, with Lance Jones adding 17 points, Mason Gillis and Fletcher Loyer each adding 12 apiece, and Trey Kaufman-Renn chipping in 10 points off the bench. Purdue was only 8-of-25 from 3-point range, but three players (Jones, Gillis, and Loyer) shot 50% or better from outside.

It's hard to see Iowa having any better luck containing Edey in the rematch than they had in the initial encounter this season. Iowa's best post defenders this season are either very young (Owen Freeman and Ladji Dembele) or very foul-prone (Even Brauns). Ben Krikke's scoring ability has translated well to the Big Ten, but he's a below-average defender overall and no match for Edey down low.

What Iowa can do is try to limit the damage from the other Boilermakers. Edey is going to get his, but if Iowa can keep the rest of the Purdue team from also playing well, then they could have a shot at springing the upset. That means contesting shots and preventing open looks and easy buckets for Purdue's perimeter players.

It would also help if the cold outside shooting that's afflicted Iowa opponents during the Hawkeyes' current 3-game winning streak would continue for one more game. Rutgers, Nebraska, and Minnesota combined to shoot 15-of-74 (20%) from outside. Iowa's defense has been better, but opponents missing that many shots is also evidence of some good fortune. Nebraska went 4-of-26 from deep and Minnesota went 5-of-29 from outside; that's just outrageously poor shooting luck.

On the flip side, Iowa probably needs a strong three-point shooting effort to pull the upset here as well. Northwestern shot 10-of-20 from outside in downing Purdue last month, while the Cornhuskers went 14-of-23 in their upset win a few weeks ago. Iowa was cold from deep against Minnesota on Monday (just 3-of-13), but made 7-of-14 triples against Rutgers and was absolutely incendiary against Nebraska, making 15-of-35 3-point attempts.

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Purdue has been the biggest, most talented, and most balanced team in the Big Ten all season to this point. The Boilermakers' status as Big Ten title favorites and national title contenders is well-deserved. That said, Iowa has been playing its best basketball of the season during the Hawkeyes' three-game winning streak over the past two weeks, which is reason for at least a little optimism against the Boilermakers.

A win here would be a huge boost to Iowa's NCAA Tournament aspirations. But this is also largely a house money game for Iowa -- no one expects much from the Hawkeyes here and a loss won't damage Iowa's season in any meaningful way. Might as well push all the chips in and see what happens.