Preview: Iowa MBB vs Northwestern

WHO: Northwestern Wildcats (19-7, 10-5)
WHEN: 5:37 PM CT
WHERE: Welsh-Ryan Arena (Evanston, IL)
TV: BTN (Brandon Gaudin and Stephen Bardo)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin and Bobby Hansen) | XM 391 or SXM 971
MOBILE: www.foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -1.5
KENPOM: Northwestern -2 (55% chance of winning)

Iowa
G Tony Perkins (11.8 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.4 spg, 0.4 bpg, 42.3 FG%, 32.7 3FG%)
G Ahron Ulis (6.6 ppg, 1.7 rpg, 2.4 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.2 bpg, 40.5 FG%, 32.1 3FG%)
F Connor McCaffery (7.1 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.0 bpg, 41.1 FG%, 36.7 3FG%)
F Kris Murray (21.0 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 bpg, 50.7 FG%, 36.2 3FG%)
F Filip Rebraca (14.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.1 apg, 0.5 spg, 1.2 bpg, 57.3 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)

Northwestern
G Boo Buie (16.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.2 bpg, 40.1 FG%, 28.8 3FG%)
G Chase Audige (15.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.9 apg, 2.4 spg, 0.7 bpg, 38.3 FG%, 33.7 3FG%)
G Ty Berry (8.5 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.2 apg, 1.5 spg, 0.2 bpg, 35.1 FG%, 29.5 3FG%)
F Robbie Beran (8.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 0.8 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.8 bpg, 37.4 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)
C Matthew Nicholson (6.1 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.2 bpg, 56.5% FG, 0.0%)

The last time these two teams met, Iowa prevailed over Northwestern 86-70. Northwestern followed that loss with another double-digit defeat, getting thrashed 68-51 by Michigan in Evanston. At 15-7 overall and 6-5, it would have been easy for the wheels to come off Northwestern's season at that point. Instead, the Wildcats are riding a four-game winning streak into Sunday's rematch with Iowa.

The first two wins of the streak were narrow road victories over Wisconsin and Ohio State. But their most recent wins have been two of their most impressive of the season -- Northwestern closed the game with a 17-3 run to upset then-#1 Purdue in Evanston, then followed that up by hanging on for a dramatic last-second win over Indiana after opening up a 19-point halftime lead. That four-game winning streak has seen Northwestern rise to solo second place in the Big Ten standings.

The first game between Iowa and Northwestern ended up a blowout, but the final score was a bit misleading. Northwestern led for almost the entire first half and held a narrow lead for the first few minutes of the second half as well. Iowa regained the lead for good with a Payton Sandfort pull-up jumper at the halfway point of the second half. Iowa's offense exploded after that, outscoring the Wildcats 29-14 to turn the game into a laugher.

A significant part of that late Hawkeye run was Sandfort going absolutely molten-hot, scoring 14 points on 4/5 shooting (3/4 from behind the arc) and adding a pair of rebounds and an assist to boot. Sandfort has been far more effective at home in Big Ten play than in road games, though; he's averaging 12.4 ppg in league home games, with double figure scoring in five of eight games, versus 6.0 ppg in league road games, with double figure scoring just once (a 22-point outburst against Rutgers). Iowa is 6-0 in Big Ten games when Sandfort scores in double figures and just 3-6 in games when he's held to single digits.

Filip Rebraca was also excellent in Iowa's first win over Northwestern; he finished with 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists, but 12 points, 8 rebounds, and all 4 assists came in the second half as Iowa took control of the game. That performance was Rebraca at his best, displaying his ability to score in the post, rebound effectively, and even serve as a facilitator and distributor for Iowa's offense. He's been slowed a little by foul trouble in some recent games, but another big game from Rebraca would go a long way toward helping Iowa sweep the regular season series against Northwestern.

(And if the basketball gods want to smile on him again, even better.)

One factor that stands out as notable during most of Northwestern's recent winning streak: turnovers. Northwestern forced 15 turnovers against Ohio State, 16 against Purdue, and 13 against Indiana. The Wisconsin win was an outlier in that regard; Northwestern only forced 9 turnovers from the Badgers.

Generating turnovers is one thing that Northwestern has done especially well in Big Ten games -- the Wildcats lead the league in turnover percentage on defense at 20.2%. They forced 13 turnovers in the first meeting with Iowa, though Iowa's red-hot shooting helped mitigate the damage from those giveaways. If Iowa can't duplicate that shooting effort, protecting the ball will be even more important.

Northwestern's overall defensive metrics this season have been mediocre (or worse) in Big Ten play; the Wildcats rank 9th in defensive efficiency, 11th in effective FG% defense, 11th in three-point defense, 10th in two-point defense, and last in preventing opponents from getting offensive rebounds. Unsurprisingly, they've been much better on the defensive end during their current winning streak.

They held Wisconsin to 0.91 points per possession, 37% on 2-point shots, and 39% on 3-point tries. In addition to forcing 15 turnovers against the Buckeyes, Northwestern held them to a 1/14 effort from 3-point range. Northwestern held Purdue to just 21 points in the second half and just 0.89 points per possession and 23% 3-point shooting for the game. They used a similar formula for success against Indiana, forcing 13 turnovers and holding the Hoosiers to 27% shooting from deep.

Those defensive stats are notable because Iowa's offense has enjoyed some pretty extreme home-and-away splits this season. The Hawkeyes have averaged better than 89.0 ppg and 49% shooting from the field in 15 home games this season; they've averaged just 69.9 ppg and 41% shooting in 11 away games. The latter numbers are a big reason why Iowa is just 2-5 in Big Ten road games this season. Without a more potent offensive showing come Sunday, the Hawkeyes could make that 2-6.

Guard Play. Boo Buie and Chase Audige have been the strength of this Northwestern team all season; Northwestern's senior backcourt is averaging almost 32 ppg combined, as well as almost 7 rpg and over 6 apg. They're the key cogs in Northwestern's turnover generation engine on defense; Audige ranks second in the Big Ten in steals, and the duo combines for over three steals per game. Audige and Buie lived up to the hype in the first Iowa-Northwestern game, combining for 35 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 steals.

But Iowa's guards were able to more than match Buie and Audige in that game. Connor McCaffery had 11 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists, while Tony Perkins had 12 points... and of course Sandfort had 20 points, 4 rebounds, and 5 assists. That home-and-away split for Iowa's offense has been especially pronounced for most of Iowa's guards:

Outside of Ulis, who's scored largely the same wherever Iowa plays, Iowa's guards have been much more proficient at home than on the road. Tony Perkins has topped 20 points three times in home games; he's hit double figures in scoring just once on the road. Likewise, Connor McCaffery has scored in double figures in five home games, but zero road games.

Iowa will need at least one of those guards to step up at Welsh-Ryan in order to come away with a victory — and lay claim to second place of the Big Ten with just four games left to play.