WHO: Northwestern Wildcats (6-2, 0-0 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:02 PM CT (Tuesday, December 3, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: Peacock (Paul Burmeister, Stephen Bardo)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: peacocktv.com
ONLINE: peacocktv.com
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @NBCSports | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -5.5 (total of 149.5)
KENPOM: Iowa -5 (Iowa 70% chance of winning)
The Big Ten portion of Iowa's 2024-25 schedule -- or at least an early preview version of it -- gets underway tonight with a visit from Northwestern to Carver-Hawkeye Arena. On paper, this looks like one of the least-grueling Big Ten openers for Iowa in several years.
2023: at Purdue (KenPom 3)
2022: Wisconsin (KP 61)
2021: at Purdue (KP 14)
2020: Purdue (KP 25)
2019: at Michigan (KP 16)
2018: Wisconsin (KP 16)
...and so on.
That said, this Northwestern team isn't a pushover by any means; while program icon Boo Buie and stalwart Ryan Langborg are gone from last year's squad, Northwestern is loaded with experience -- their starting five features four seniors and a junior. The 'Cats are 6-2 on the season, only suffering losses to Dayton (away) and Butler (neutral).
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 5.8 ppg, 1.4 rpg, 5.4 apg; 40.0 FG%; 62.5 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 12.3 ppg; 2.3 rpg; 4.0 apg; 51.5 FG%; 44.4 3FG%)
F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 17.8 ppg; 7.0 rpg; 4.2 apg; 45.6 FG%; 35.0 3FG%)
F Ladji Dembele (6'8", 255 lbs; 5.8 ppg, 5.0 rpg; 0.8 apg; 44.4 FG%; 30.0 3FG%)
C Owen Freeman (6'10", 245 lbs; 17.5 ppg; 8.3 rpg; 1.3 apg; 59.6 FG%; 33.3 3FG%)
The injury news for the Iowa roster looks a little more promising after a week off -- Payton Sandfort's wrist is doing better and Seydou Traore is a "game-time" decision for tonight's game. Cooper Koch appears to be the only Iowa player fully unavailable for this game.
PROJECTED NORTHWESTERN STARTING LINEUP
G Jalen Leach (6'4", 200 lbs; 14.8 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 2.0 apg; 44.7 FG%; 40.0 3FG%)
G Ty Berry (6'3", 190 lbs; 6.1 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.6 apg; 27.8 FG%; 31.4 3FG%)
F Brooks Barnhizer (6'4", 230 lbs; 20.0 ppg; 8.0 rpg; 4.0 apg; 45.8 FG%; 40.0 3FG%)
F Nick Martinelli (6'7", 220 lbs; 20.3 ppg; 6.9 rpg; 1.5 apg; 52.6 FG%; 60.0 3FG%)
C Matthew Nicholson (7'0", 280 lbs; 5.0 ppg; 4.5 rpg; 1.6 apg; 63.6 FG%; 0.0 3FG%)
PREVIEW
As noted, Northwestern is 6-2, though the best of those six wins is probably their most recent, a 66-61 neutral-site win over UNLV. The Runnin' Rebels are ranked 107th in KenPom. Not all of those Northwestern wins have been impressive, either -- the Wildcats needed overtime to hold off Eastern Illinois (KenPom 330) and narrowly edged Montana State (KP 150) by three.
As has been fairly common under Chris Collins, Northwestern is again employing a very grind-it-down approach; the Wildcats rank 329th in tempo on the season. They especially like to slow it down on defense, where opponent possessions are 18.5 seconds on average (334th in the nation).
That methodical approach has worked well with the Wildcats' stingy defense, though. Northwestern ranks 33rd in defensive efficiency this season and they haven't struggled at any aspect of defense thus far. The Wildcats turn opponents over at a good clip (20.9% of possessions, 67th nationally), prevent offensive rebounds well (27.3% offensive rebound rate for opponents, 90th), and contest shots at a good rate (opponents have an effective FG% of 46.9%, 73rd).
Northwestern has been good at contesting three-point shots (30.1%, 91st) and two-point tries (47.8%, 99th) and they haven't allowed opponents to get to the free throw line all that often, either (162nd in defensive free throw rate). They've been forcing steals on 11.8% (69th) of opponent possessions, with six players currently averaging at least one steal per game. While they contest shots well, they don't block a lot of shots; the Wildcats are only 196th in block rate and the only real block threat is center Matthew Nicholson (averaging 1.8 blocks per game).
The Wildcats have been decently efficient on offense this season (103rd), despite some middling shooting numbers. Northwestern has an effective FG% of just 49.2T% (204th), fueled by mediocre percentages from deep (32.6% on 3-point shots, 193rd) and inside the arc (49.4% on 2-point attempts, 214th). It's worth noting that the three-point shot just isn't a big part of the Wildcats' offense -- they're 352nd nationally in three-point rate and only 22.7% (342nd) of their total points come from beyond the arc.
The strengths of the Northwestern offense? The Wildcats don't turn the ball over (only 15% of possessions, 57th), they hit the offensive glass well (33.0% offensive rebound rate, 114th), and they get to the free throw line a decent amount (84th in free throw rate), where they've been making 73.3% of their shots this season.
Forward Brooks Barnhizer missed the first four games of the season, but he's returned and started in each of their last four games. Barnhizer has scored 20+ ppg in three of those games and is coming off a 4-of-7 effort shooting the ball from 3-point range against UNLV. He and Nick Martinelli are the two most potent offensive weapons on Northwestern by far.
Martinelli carried the offensive load in Barnhizer's absence and still leads the team with 20.3 ppg. He's scored 20+ in five of Northwestern's eight games this year (including 32 in the loss to Dayton), though he had just 19 points combined in their neutral-site games against Butler and UNLV last week. He and Barnhizer are also two of Northwestern's more effective 3-point shooters (60% and 40%, respectively), though they don't attempt too many (fewer than two per game for Martinelli).
Fairfield transfer Jalen Leach has helped fill the Boo Buie-shaped void in the back court this season; he's averaged 14.8 ppg and 2.0 apg this season. Leach has been solid from beyond the arc (40% on almost four attempts per game) and excellent at getting to the free throw line (over five attempts per game) and even better at converting from the stripe (86.4%). Returning guard Ty Berry has been ice cold on offense this season -- 6.1 ppg on 27.8% shooting from the floor (including just 31% from deep).
Big man Matthew Nicholson is the fifth regular starter for Northwestern, splitting time with fellow big Luke Hunger (6'10", 260). Combined, the duo 9.6 ppg and 8.0 rpg while shooting 54% from the floor. Their size could pose some challenges for Owen Freeman on offense.