WHO: Ohio State Buckeyes (13-8, 3-7 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Friday, February 2, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: FS1
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -5.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -5 (Iowa 82, Ohio State 77; Iowa 67% chance of winning)
Iowa clawed back from a large deficit at Indiana on Tuesday, but fell short. They head home to face an Ohio State team that came up short for most of the month of January.
The Buckeyes were 11-2 overall and 1-1 in the Big Ten as the calendar swung to 2024; entering February, the Buckeyes sit at 13-8 overall and 3-7 in the Big Ten (12th) after a dismal 2-6 effort in January. Ohio State's only wins in January were over Rutgers (13th in the Big Ten) and Penn State (tied for 10th) and they even handed Michigan the Wolverines' only win in January.
Of course, Iowa is just a game better in league play than Ohio State (4-6) and the Hawkeyes have had several frustrating performances of their own lately. Iowa is just 2-3 at home in Big Ten action as well, so even the friendly confines of Carver-Hawkeye Arena haven't been quite as friendly as normal this season.
PROJECTED OHIO STATE STARTING FIVE
G Bruce Thornton (6'2", 215 lbs, 15.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 4.3 apg, 40.9 FG%, 31.9 3FG%)
G Roddy Gayle (6'4", 210 lbs, 14.1 ppg, 4.7 rph, 3.2 apg, 45.4 FG%, 27.7 3FG%)
F Evan Mahaffery (6'6", 200 lbs, 5.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.7 apg, 47.7 FG%, 10.0 3FG%)
F Jamison Battle (6'7", 220 lbs, 14.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.2 apg, 46.5 FG%, 44.4 3FG%)
C Felix Okpara (6'11", 235 lbs, 6.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 0.5 apg, 60.0 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)
The biggest factor in Ohio State's January swoon? Defense -- or the lack thereof. The Buckeyes rank 120th in defensive efficiency this season (worst in the Big Ten) and if anything the OSU defense has only gotten worse lately -- the Buckeyes have conceded 80+ in each of their last three games (all losses). The biggest problem with the OSU defense? It doesn't force many turnovers -- the Buckeyes rank 292nd in turnover rate and 297th in steal rate.
Ohio State has also been getting torched from behind the 3-point line (opponents have shot 35.8% from deep this season, which ranks 302nd nationally for defenses). They've been better at defending 2-point attempts (46.7%, 56th nationally), in part because they block a decent number of shots (12.0%, 56th). They've also been good at not fouling opponents, with a foul rate that ranks 32nd nationally.
In fact, Iowa and Ohio State are mirror image teams in a lot of ways; both are built around strong offenses and weak defenses. Iowa's offense is better (18th in offensive efficiency vs 42nd) and the defense is very slightly better (117th in defensive efficiency vs 120th). Neither team turns the ball over a lot (OSU ranks 68th in turnover rate on offense, while Iowa ranks 5th).
One key difference between Iowa and OSU? Pace. Iowa is, as usual, one of the quickest teams in the nation (14th nationally in tempo). Ohio State is one of the slowest, ranking 301st in tempo. The Buckeyes have really dragged out possessions on offense, averaging 18.4 seconds on that side of the ball, which ranks 295th. (Iowa's offensive possessions average 15.2 seconds.)
Ohio State's leading scorer is Bruce Thornton, a sophomore guard averaging 15.7 ppg and a team-high 4.3 assists per game as well. Thornton was sharp the last time the Buckeyes played Iowa; he had 17 points and six assists in their win over the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Tournament last season.
Roddy Gayle is one of two other OSU players scoring in double figures this season; he's been hitting for 14.1 ppg and 4.7 rpg this season. Gayle faced Iowa three times last season, but didn't have any big games -- he scored nine points in each of OSU's wins over Iowa and had six in the Buckeye loss in Iowa City.
Minnesota transfer Jamison Battle is the other OSU player scoring in double figures this season, with 14.1 ppg, as well as 5.4 rpg. He's 0-3 lifetime against Iowa, although he did score 20 points in a losing effort for the Gophers against Iowa two seasons ago. Battle is also the Buckeyes' best outside threat; he leads the team in three-pointers made (60) and attempted (135).
Finally, OSU big man Felix Okpara leads the team in rebounding with 6.9 rpg, to go along with 6.2 ppg. Okpara has scored in double figures in just three games this season.
Iowa and Ohio State enter this game with a fair amount of desperation clinging to both teams. Iowa has lost three of its last four, while the Buckeyes have lost six of seven. NCAA Tournament aspirations for either team are faint right now and might be non-existent with a loss in this game.
Just climbing out of the Big Ten cellar (and a potential Wednesday play-in game at the Big Ten Tournament) might be the top priorities for the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes at the moment. Tony Perkins and Payton Sandfort have been red-hot in Iowa's last two games and repeat performances from Iowa's veteran leaders would be helpful tonight, but they also need to get more help. Ben Krikke could use a big bounce-back game and Iowa could use Josh Dix or Patrick McCaffery finding some rhythm behind the arc as well.