WHO: Ohio State Buckeyes (19-12, 9-11 Big Ten)
WHEN: 5:30 PM CT (Thursday, March 14, 2024)
WHERE: Target Center (Minneapolis, MN)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Ohio State -2.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Ohio State -1 (Ohio State 80, Iowa 79; OSU 51% chance of winning)

Survive and advance. That truism applies to both Iowa's path through the Big Ten Tournament and its hopes to make it back to the NCAA Tournament. Scoreboard-watching matters a little for Iowa, to see what other teams are helping (or hurting) their bubble standing. But nothing that happens elsewhere is going to matter unless Iowa first wins today (and then also tomorrow against 2-seed Illinois).

Iowa gets Ohio State for the second-straight year in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. The vibes were more favorable for Iowa last season -- the Hawkeyes entered the tourney as the 5-seed and having won four of their last seven games; the Buckeyes entered as the 13-seed and having lost 10 of their previous 12 games. But OSU knocked off Wisconsin in the opening round and then upset Iowa, 73-69.

The Buckeyes look even more formidable this season, especially based on recent form. Ohio State is 5-1 under interim head coach Jake Diebler, including a win over #2 Purdue in his first game in charge and wins in four straight entering the Big Ten Tournament. That run includes 20+ wins over Big Ten bottom-feeders Michigan and Rutgers, but it also includes wins over Michigan State and Nebraska.

G Bruce Thornton (6'2", 215 lbs, 16.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 42.3 FG%, 31.2 3FG%)
G Roddy Gayle (6'4", 210 lbs, 13.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.1 apg, 45.2 FG%, 28.1 3FG%)
F Evan Mahaffery (6'6", 200 lbs, 4.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 46.6 FG%, 12.5 3FG%)
F Jamison Battle (6'7", 220 lbs, 14.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, 47.1 FG%, 44.0 3FG%)
C Felix Okpara (6'11", 235 lbs, 6.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 0.5 apg, 59.8 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)

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"They were losing, but they weren't getting drilled. They were losing close games, and now they're winning games, sometimes by a decent amount," Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery said of Ohio State earlier in the week. "I think you looked at that roster at the beginning of the season and felt like they were going to be one of the best teams in our league."

As Fran also noted, Ohio State hasn't changed too much under interim head coach Jake Diebler. "The staff stayed together, and they haven't changed a whole lot in terms of what they're doing offensively and defensively," McCaffery said. They're doing a lot of the same things offensively and defensively -- they're just working better now.

On offense, Ohio State is led by a three-headed attack, with Bruce Thornton, Roddy Gayle, and Jamison Battle all averaging between 14-16 ppg. They're all very good scorers and capable of scoring in multiple ways. Battle is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league (44% from deep), but he had 32 against Nebraska in a game in which he was just 4-of-12 from long range. But he made 5-of-6 shots inside the arc and went 10-of-10 at the free throw line.

In fact, keeping Ohio State off the free throw line could be a key factor in the game -- or at least keeping Thornton, Gayle, and Battle off the line. Thornton and Gayle are high-volume free throw shooters (Gayle has attempted 129 this year, while Thornton has taken 139 free throws this year) and very efficient at the stripe -- both have shot 85% or better on free throws this season. Battle visits the free throw line much less frequently (just 59 trips all year), but he's basically automatic when he gets there (94.9%).

Ohio State's main strengths on offense have been free throws, avoiding turnovers, and attacking the offensive glass. OSU ranks 85th nationally in turnover rate (just 15.7%) and 100th in offensive rebound rate (collecting 31.3% of their misses). They've been a decent shooting team this season (51.2% on 2-point attempts, 34% on on 3-point shots), but not great. Still, more then average or worse outside shooting team has lit up the Hawkeyes from deep this season, so perimeter defense will be a key for Iowa.

Iowa edged Ohio State 79-77 in the only prior meeting between the teams this season, back in January. Tony Perkins led Iowa with 20 points in that game and Payton Sandfort and Josh Dix each chipped in 15 points in the Iowa win. Iowa didn't do much from deep against the Buckeyes (just 3-of-10) but they made the most of their chances inside the arc (shooting 59% on 2-point attempts) and were effective at the free throw line (18-of-22), especially late in the game. Perkins and Patrick McCaffery combined to go 16-of-17 at the free throw line.

Ohio State has generally defended 2-point attempts this year better (46.4%, 35th) than 3-point tries (34.8%, 347th), so repeating the gameplan from the January win may be easier said than done for the Hawkeyes. Iowa's probably going to need to do more damage from deep in this game -- and they Hawkeyes will definitely need more from their trio of senior leaders than the nine points (on 1-of-13 shooting) and seven rebounds (zero offensive) they got from Perkins, McCaffery, and Ben Krikke against Illinois on Sunday.

Iowa also can't afford a slow start like they had against the Illini. The Hawkeyes dug a massive hole early in the game on Sunday and were never able to claw their way free as a result. Going down big early against an Ohio State team brimming with confidence is likely to lead to a similar result -- and that will send back to the NIT for the first time in seven years.