WHO: Ohio State Buckeyes (17-14, 9-11 Big Ten)
WHEN: approximately 5:30 PM CT (Wednesday, March 12, 2025)
WHERE: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis, IN)
TV: Peacock (Paul Burmeister, Robbie Hummel, Nicole Auerbach)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: peacocktv.com
ONLINE: peacocktv.com
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Ohio State -5.5 (total of 154.5)
KENPOM: Ohio State -5 (66% chance of winning)
It's Big Ten Tournament week and the overriding feeling this year is déjà vu. For the third straight season, Iowa's opening game in the tournament is against Ohio State. In 2023, 5-seed Iowa was upset by 13-seed Ohio State, 73-69. Last year, 7-seed Iowa was upset by 10-seed Ohio State, 90-78. This year, the seed situation is reversed -- Ohio State is the favorite as the 10-seed, while Iowa is the underdog as the 15-seed. Will that result in a flip in the result of the game as well?
Ohio State ended the year in streaky form, going 3-5 in their final eight games of the season. But "streaky" was also Ohio State's identity all season long -- the Buckeyes have not won or lost more than three games in a row all year. This is simply an up and down team that has struggled with consistency all year.
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195 lbs; 9.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.9 apg, 50.8 FG%, 43.4 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 14.1 ppg; 3.3 rpg; 2.8 apg; 50.2 FG%; 42.5 3FG%)
F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.3 ppg; 6.3 rpg; 2.9 apg; 40.0 FG%; 32.6 3FG%)
F Seydou Traore (6'7", 220 lbs; 6.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 1.3 apg, 43.9 FG%, 28.1 3FG%)
F Ladji Dembele (6'8", 255 lbs; 4.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 0.5 apg; 44.9 FG%, 38.2 3FG%)
Iowa is expected to have everyone available, outside of Owen Freeman and Cooper Koch.
PROJECTED OHIO STATE STARTING LINEUP
G Bruce Thornton (6'2", 215 lbs; 17.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.5 apg; 49.7 FG%, 42.8 3FG%)
G John Mobley (6'1", 175 lbs; 13.2 ppg, 1.5 rpg, 2.3 apg; 39.5 FG%, 39.1 3FG%)
F Micah Parrish (6'6", 205 lbs; 13.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.5 apg; 44.0 FG%, 36.3 3FG%)
F Devin Royal (6'6", 220 lbs; 13.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.1 apg; 52.2 FG%, 29.1 3FG%)
C Sean Stewart (6'9", 220 lbs; 5.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.6 apg; 54.3 FG%, 50.0 3FG%)
PREVIEW
The only previous meeting between Iowa and Ohio State came in Columbus at the end of January; the Buckeyes prevailed 82-65 in that game. Iowa kept it close for a half and trailed just 30-26 at halftime. Like many games this year, though, things went very sideways for the Hawkeyes in the second half. Ohio State exploded into a 16-3 run early in the second half to take total control of the game; they cruised to 52 points in the second half and an easy 82-65 victory.
Drew Thelwell led Iowa with 20 points, including a 3-of-4 display from beyond the arc. Owen Freeman, playing his final game of the year, added 14 points and eight rebounds. Payton Sandfort had 13 points, but shot just 5-of-16 from the floor. Seydou Traore was the lone bright spot off the bench, with 13 points thanks largely to 7-of-10 shooting at the free throw line. Josh Dix had a particularly lousy game, scoring zero points on 0-for-7 shooting.
Earlier this week, Fran McCaffery spoke about what Iowa needed to do better in this rematch with Ohio State to avoid a similar result. "We had a stretch where we had good shots and they didn't go in. We shot it pretty well most of the rest of the game. When you do that, you gotta get stops," said McCaffery.
"It's hard sometimes, because if you miss 4-5 possessions in a row, they might run it on you and get some easy baskets or some open 3s. That's when it got away from us a little bit," he added. "We didn't shore up our defense when our offense was not making shots. We've got to make sure we consistently move the ball, get good shots, [and] get our defense back.
Ohio State was solid on offense (31st in offensive efficiency) and defense (49th in defensive efficiency), though not great in either category -- the Buckeyes were ninth in Big Ten-only games in offensive efficiency and 10th in league games in defensive efficiency. OSU wasn't a particularly good shooting team (50.9% effective FG%, 12th in the Big Ten) or a good offensive rebounding squad (29.5% offensive rebound rate, 11th in the Big Ten). The Buckeyes have been better at shooting three-pointers (34.9%, 7th in the league) than making shots inside the arc (50.1%, 14th in the Big Ten).
On defense, Ohio State's biggest strength has been contesting shots -- the Buckeyes are allowing teams to shoot 51.2% in effective FG%, sixth-best in the Big Ten. Teams have made 53.3% of their 2-point attempts against Ohio State (10th-best in the Big Ten) and just 31.5% (4th in the Big Ten) of their 3-point tries. Ohio State has also been good at forcing turnovers (16.7% of opponent possessions, 7th in the Big Ten), though they have been very poor at keeping opponents off the offensive glass (31.7% offensive rebound rate, 15th in the league) and keeping opponents off the free throw line (18th in the Big Ten in free throw rate).
The Buckeyes rely heavily on their starting five, but those starters have been very productive, with four players averaging double figures, led by Bruce Thornton with 17.5 ppg. Thornton has also been a dangerous three-point shooter, making 42.6% of his attempts from beyond the arc. Behind Thornton, Devin Royal, Micah Parrish, and John Mobley Jr. have all averaged 13+ ppg this year.
Royal is the worst three-point shooter of the bunch (29.1%), but he's been solid inside the arc and around the rim (58.2% on 2-point attempts). He's also been Ohio State's leading rebounder at 6.9 rpg. Parrish and Mobley have each averaged 13.2 ppg this year, while also being OSU's highest-volume three-point shooters; Parrish has attempted 157 shots (36.3%), while Mobley has launched 192 threes (39.1%). Parrish led OSU in scoring (18 pts) in their win over Iowa earlier this year, while Mobley dished eight assists in that game.
Big man Sean Stewart is the only Buckeye scorer not averaging double figures in scoring this season (5.8 ppg), mainly because he's split time this year with fellow big Aaron Bradshaw (6.3 ppg, 2.6 rpg).
