WHO: Penn State Nittany Lions (13-6, 3-5 Big Ten)

WHEN: 8:07 PM CT (Friday, January 24, 2025)

WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)

TV: FS1 (Chris Vosters and Nick Bahe)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)

MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile

ONLINE: foxsports.com/live

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @CBBonFOX | @IowaonBTN

LINE: Iowa -3.5 (total of 166.5)

KENPOM: Iowa -2 (Iowa 57% chance of winning)

Bounce-back game, take two? Iowa's attempt to rebound after a miserable Los Angeles road trip last week fell flat as the Hawkeyes were dumped 72-67 at home by previously last-place Minnesota. Another opportunity to end the losing skid is upon the Hawkeyes, though, with Penn State (13-6 overall and 3-5 in the Big Ten) visiting Carver-Hawkeye Arena tonight.

The Nittany Lions galloped through non-conference play with a 10-1 mark, but have experienced more stumbles in Big Ten play, especially away from home. Penn State is 3-1 in league home games, including an 81-70 victory over Purdue in early December, but 0-4 in games played away from Happy Valley (including a 77-71 loss to Indiana at the Palestra in Philadelphia).

That said, two of PSU's three road losses were against Michigan State (currently leading the league at 7-0) and Illinois (currently sixth in the league at 5-4, but 4-1 in league before some recent hiccups). Penn State also gave Michigan State a battle in East Lansing a week ago, losing just 90-85. In other words, the Hawkeyes are going to need to play much better than they've been playing for the last two weeks to get a win tonight.

G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 9.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 6.3 apg; 45.3 FG%; 39.0 3FG%)

G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 14.1 ppg; 3.2 rpg; 2.7 apg; 55.2 FG%; 48.2 3FG%)

G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195; 9.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, 53.0 FG%, 38.8 3FG%)

F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.5 ppg; 5.7 rpg; 3.0 apg; 40.9 FG%; 34.3 3FG%)

C Owen Freeman (6'10", 245 lbs; 16.9 ppg; 6.5 rpg; 1.2 apg; 65.4 FG%; 35.7 3FG%)

Cooper Koch remains unavailable, but Iowa should have a full lineup otherwise.

G Ace Baldwin (6'1", 190 lbs; 14.7 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 8.1 apg, 37.7 FG%, 29.7 3FG%)

G Freddie Dilione V (6'5", 195 lbs; 10.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.8 apg, 45.0 FG%, 33.3 3FG%)

F Nick Kern (6'6", 205 lbs; 12.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2.2 apg, 61.5 FG%, 37.5 3FG%)

F Zach Hicks (6'8", 205 lbs; 12.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.2 apg, 48.0 FG%, 42.9 3FG%)

C Yanic Konan Niderhauser (7'0", 250 lbs; 12.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 0.7 apg, 62.2 FG%, 11.1 3FG%)

This game pits two of the league's top offenses against one another -- at least on paper. Iowa has been the highest-scoring team in the league this year (87.3 ppg), while Penn State ranks fourth in the conference in scoring (84.2 ppg). Neither team has been quite as prolific in league play, with Iowa slipping to fourth in the league (82.0 ppg) and Penn State dropping to ninth (76.2 ppg).

This still projects to be a shootout between two good offenses that prefer to play at a fast tempo, though; Penn State ranks 41st in offensive efficiency (Iowa: 19th) and 30th in adjusted tempo (Iowa: 22nd). There's a reason the gambling sites set such a high total (166.5 points) for this game, after all.

Penn State has been good at most things on offense, but their biggest strengths have been getting to the free throw line (57th in free throw rate) and converting shots (47th in effective FG% at 54.8%). The Nittany Lions have been especially deadly inside the arc and near the rim; they've made 56.2% (38th) of their 2-point attempts this year (alongside 34.8% shooting from long range, 112th). That's a concerning number for an Iowa defense that is currently 328th in the country in defending 2-point shots (55.8%).

Unlike Iowa, which pairs a (usually) high-powered offense with a (usually) poor defense, Penn State has been generally decent on the defensive end. PSU ranks 71st in defensive efficiency, though that does put them just 13th in the Big Ten. (For comparison, Iowa is a very distant 18th in the league in defensive efficiency; Penn State is closer to Wisconsin, the fifth-ranked team in defensive efficiency than it is to Iowa in 18th.)

Penn State has been bad at preventing opponents at getting offensive rebounds (18th in the league, allowing teams to get 35.6% of their misses) and bad at contesting shots (13th in effective FG%, allowing opponents to post an effective FG% of 54.4%, including 56.9% on 2-point shots). PSU's biggest strength on defense has been forcing turnovers -- the Nittany Lions are second in the league in that department and have forced giveaways on 20.7% of opponent possessions, including steals on 11.9% of opponent possessions. Turnover prevention is one thing Iowa remains excellent at on offense; the Hawkeyes have given the ball up on just 14.1% of possessions, best in the Big Ten.

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Penn State's offense has been potent this year because of its balance. Six PSU players are averaging 20+ minutes this season -- and all are scoring in double figures.

"I think they're balanced offensively because they have a lot of really good players," said Iowa head coach Fran McCaffery earlier this week. "They play a style that's conducive to the specific skill sets that those guys have. They play fast, they go with it, but they're also an unselfish group. They're gonna press and run and move it. It starts with Ace [Baldwin, Jr.], but there's a lot of guys that can make plays off the bounce."

Indeed, Baldwin is leading the team in scoring (14.7 ppg) and assists (8.1 apg). His eye-catching assist number ranks second in the Big Ten this year as well; Baldwin has been elite at distributing the ball in PSU's offense and finding open players for easy buckets. Wing Nick Kern has been Penn State's second leading scorer, at 12.6 ppg, though that's just percentage points ahead of big man Yanic Kronan Niderhauser (12. 4 ppg) and forward Zach Hicks (12.1 ppg).

Hicks has been PSU's most reliable threat from outside, making 42.9% of his three-point attempts on a team-high 112 attempts. Baldwin (29.7%, 22-of-74) and Freddie Dilione V (33.3%, 21-of-63) have been the next-most frequent shooters from deep for Penn State, though they haven't been particularly accurate. That said, Iowa's defense has proven to be very good for what ails three-point shooters this season.

The scoring strength of Penn State is in the paint; the Nittany Lions have four players shooting over 62% on 2-point attempts, including Hicks (62.5%), Kronan Niderhauser (65.5%), Kern (62.9%), and rotation player Puff Johnson (68.5%). That ability to score near the rim should be significant concern for an Iowa defense that's resembled a layup line at its worst moments over the last two weeks. The interior defense is going to need to be much more stout in this game or the Hawkeyes are liable to get pummeled in the paint.