Published Jan 5, 2024
Preview: Iowa MBB vs Rutgers
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-5, 0-2 Big Ten)
WHEN: 11:00 AM CT (Saturday, January 6, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -7
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -6 (Iowa 78, Rutgers 72; Iowa 72% chance of winning)

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Iowa and Rutgers enter Saturday's game sharing an unwelcome distinction: the Big Ten's only teams without a win in conference play. Iowa has gone 0-3 in league play so far this year, while Rutgers is off to an 0-2 start in conference action thus far. The good news? Someone will have a 1 in the win column by Saturday evening.

One other similarity between Iowa and Rutgers so far this season? The best win both teams have is against Seton Hall. Iowa beat the Pirates 85-72 on a neutral site, while Rutgers got a 70-63 win over Seton Hall on the road.

None of Rutgers' other seven wins ranks any higher than 183rd in the KenPom rankings. Most recently, Rutgers had an extremely narrow 59-58 win over Stonehill (KenPom #351) last Saturday and suffered a 76-72 loss at Ohio State on Wednesday.

PROJECTED RUTGERS STARTING FIVE

G Derek Simpson (6'3", 165, 10.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.5 spg, 34.8 FG%, 31.0 3FG%)
G Noah Fernandes (5'11", 180, 8.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, 1.2 spg, 35.9 FG%, 27.9 3FG%)
F Mawot Mog (6'7", 216, 7.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.6 apg, 32.6 FG%, 23.1 3FG%)
F Aundre Hyatt (6'6", 235, 12.1 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 39.2 FG%, 35.6 3FG%)
C Clifford Omoruyi (6'11", 240, 11.1 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 0.6 apg, 52.4 FG%, 0.0 3FG%)

Rutgers has not good at putting the ball in the basket this season. The Scarlet Knights are averaging 67.8 ppg this season, which ranks 319th nationally. The efficiency numbers aren't any better: 323rd in effective FG% (44.8%), 304th in 2FG% (45.6%), 322nd in 3FG% (28.9%). They aren't even very good at the free throw line: 65.7% (318th).

The Scarlet Knights do a few things well on offense, though: they only turn the ball over on 15.8% of offensive possessions (74th nationally) and they grab 30.6% of their offensive rebound opportunities (135th nationally). The offensive rebounds are important since Rutgers doesn't shoot the ball well; they need a high volume of shots in order to score points.

Given that, it's no surprise that Rutgers' leading scorers are both in the frontcourt. Forward Aundre Hyatt leads the team with 12.1 ppg despite only shooting 39.2% from the field. Hyatt is also a very willing 3-point shooter (his 73 attempts is 20 more than any other RU player has this season) and probably Rutgers' most dangerous shooter from deep -- his 35.6% from beyond the arc is the best mark on the Rutgers team by far.

Clifford Omoruyi is the other big threat for the Scarlet Knights, figuratively and literally -- Omoruyi is 6'11" and 240 and a very physical presence in the post. Omoruyi is nearly averaging a double-double this season with 11.1 ppg and 8.9 rpg. Omoruyi is mainly just a threat around the rim, shooting 55% on 2-point attempts this season. He'll be a load for Iowa's bigs to defend.

Sophomore Derek Simpson has missed a handful of games this season (though he's started the last two) but he's still the third and final double digit scorer for Rutgers this season, averaging 10.0 ppg. Noah Fernandes and Gavin Griffiths have been among the Scarlet Knights' most prolific at attempting three-point shots this year, but neither has had much success converting those attempts into makes -- both men are shooting under 30% from deep this season.

Mawot Mog missed the first eight games of the season for Rutgers, but has been back in the starting lineup for the last five games, and he provides a lot of length and athleticism on the perimeter for the Scarlet Knights. His shooting touch has been cold to start the season (37% on 2-point attempts, 23% on 3-point tries), but his presence is a welcome one for Rutgers.

The strength of Rutgers, of course, is on the defensive end, which has been their calling card under head coach Steve Pikiell. Rutgers is allowing just 62.5 ppg this season, 16th best nationally. The Scarlet Knights rank 13th nationally in defensive efficiency as well. The Scarlet Knights do several things well on defense, but it starts with contesting shots and forcing turnovers.

Rutgers is allowing opponents to shoot an effective FG% of 44%, which is 12th best nationally. The Scarlet Knights are allowing opponents to shoot 42.7% on 2-point attempts (12th nationally) and getting blocks on 16.8% of opponent possessions (8th nationally). This could be a game where Iowa will need to have success hitting jump shots to get the win.

The Scarlet Knights are also forcing turnovers on 22.9% of opponent possessions, 11th best nationally. That turnover battle figures to be a key one in this game, as the Hawkeyes have been excellent at protecting the ball on offense (turnovers on only 13.3% of possessions, 7th best nationally).

Rutgers hasn't been very good at preventing opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds, though -- opponents have hauled in 33.5% of their misses, which ranks 313th nationally. Owen Freeman and his 14.2% offensive rebound rate (46th best nationally) could be a key factor for Iowa in this game.

Saturday's game starts a stretch in which Iowa plays four of five games at the friendly confines of Carver-Hawkeye Arena. If Iowa is going to turn things around this season, it's going to have to start with some home wins over the next 2.5 weeks. Losing at home to Rutgers and dropping to 0-4 in league play would put Iowa in a deep hole for the remainder of the season and further damage confidence ahead of those other home games.

Rutgers will play hard, especially on the defensive end, so Iowa needs to be prepared to match that intensity. That's going to show up in running the floor hard, being active on defense, and attacking the boards. If Iowa does that -- and avoids an ice-cold shooting performance on their own end of the court -- they should be in decent shape to get their first Big Ten win of the season. If that doesn't happen, though, a long season could start feeling even longer.