WHO: Wisconsin Badgers (10-3, 0-2 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Friday, January 3, 2025)
WHERE: Kohl Center (Madison, WI)
TV: FS1 (Connor Onion and LaPhonso Ellis)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @CBBonFOX | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Wisconsin -6.5 (total of 161.5)
KENPOM: Wisconsin -4 (Wisconsin 66% chance of winning)
After a 1-1 introduction to Big Ten play last month (beating Northwestern on Josh Dix's buzzer-beater and losing to Michigan after a spirited comeback attempt fell short), the proper conference season gets underway for Iowa tonight. No more non-conference distractions -- it's Big Ten opponents from here until March.
First up? A border battle with Wisconsin, who enters this game with an identical 10-3 record. The Badgers started the season 8-0, including notable wins over Arizona, UCF, and Pitt. They lost three in a row a month ago, including both of their early season Big Ten games, falling to Michigan and Illinois (and sandwiching a road loss at Marquette between those defeats).
The Badgers rebounded with wins over Butler and Detroit Mercy after that brief losing skid, but the Badgers have also been out of action since December 22, enjoying an almost two-week layoff before tonight's game. Having opened conference play 0-2 and with road games to Rutgers, USC, and UCLA coming up, Wisconsin will be very eager to avoid an 0-3 start to league action.
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 9.4 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 6.0 apg; 49.3 FG%; 45.5 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 13.3 ppg; 3.6 rpg; 2.8 apg; 53.4 FG%; 39.6 3FG%)
G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195; 8.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 3.2 apg, 55.3 FG%, 38.2 3FG%)
F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.5 ppg; 5.8 rpg; 3.4 apg; 40.7 FG%; 33.7 3FG%)
C Owen Freeman (6'10", 245 lbs; 17.1 ppg; 6.5 rpg; 1.5 apg; 66.1 FG%; 40.0 3FG%)
PROJECTED WISCONSIN STARTING LINEUP
G Max Klesmit (6'4", 204; 11.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, 32.5 FG%, 28.4 3FG%)
G John Blackwell (6'4", 203; 14.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 2.2 apg; 48.1 FG%, 28.9 3FG%)
F John Tonje (6'5", 218; 19.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.0 apg, 45.5 FG%, 37.1 3FG%)
F Nolan Winter (6'11", 235; 11.2 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.0 apg, 60.4 FG%, 34.4 3FG%)
C Steven Crowl (7'0", 248; 8.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.5 apg, 48.9 FG%, 23.8 3FG%)
PREVIEW
The 2024-25 Wisconsin Badgers aren't quite like the Badger teams of yore, at least in one notable regard: they're playing at a faster tempo than any Wisconsin team in almost 20 years. This Badger team checks in at 181st in the tempo rankings, which is the fastest Wisconsin has been in the Greg Gard era and the fastest for any Wisconsin team since 2005-06.
Granted, they're still the fifth-slowest team in the Big Ten and no one's going to mistake them for Illinois or Iowa (17th and 23rd, respectively, in the tempo rankings), but still -- this is not the same poky Wisconsin team you've seen in the past.
The strength of this Badger team is its offense; the Badgers rank 16th in offensive efficiency (third-best in the Big Ten, behind Purdue and Illinois), thanks to an offense that avoids turnovers, shoots reasonably well, and is excellent at getting to the free throw line. Wisconsin turns the ball over on just 13.8% of possessions (15th nationally) and concedes steals on only 6.3% (2nd) of possessions.
The Badgers have been a decent shooting team -- 52.3% in effective FG% (126th), with most of their success coming from inside the arc. Wisconsin has made 55.2% (74th) of 2-point attempts this season, but they've been much cooler from outside -- only 32.5% (216th) from 3-point range. The Badgers rank 71st in free throw rate, but they've been lights out when they get to the stripe, making 85.1% of free throw attempts, best in the nation. Keeping the Badgers off the foul line on Friday night will be imperative for Iowa.
On defense, Wisconsin doesn't force many turnovers (15.5% of opponent possessions, 296th nationally), but the Badgers have been good at contesting shots, denying offensive rebounds, and keeping teams off the free throw line. Opponents have an effective FG% of just 47.3% against Wisconsin (67th) and the Badgers have been adept at contesting both 2-point shots (48.5%, 101st) and 3-point tries (30.2%, 60th). Opponents have rebounded only 27.9% of their missed shots (106th) this season as well.
After losing standout forward Tyler Wahl to graduation and fellow forward AJ Storr to the transfer portal, the Badgers hit the portal themselves and landed John Tonje, a skilled forward from Missouri (by way of Colorado State) who has been a difference-maker for Wisconsin this season. Tonje leads the team in scoring (19.2 ppg), ranks third in rebounds (5.0 rpg), and has been the team's best outside shooter (23-of-62, 37.1%). Tonje also gets to the free throw line a lot (100 attempts already this season) and hardly misses when he gets there (94%). He's been everything the Badgers could ask for out of the portal.
He joined a Badger team that returned an experienced backcourt in Max Klesmit and John Blackwell. Blackwell (14.2 ppg) and Klesmit (11.2 ppg) are two of the other three Wisconsin players averaging double figures in scoring, though neither has been able to find a consistent outside shot yet (both shooting around 28% from long range). Like Tonje, they're very good at the free throw line (86.7% for Klesmit, 80.4% for Blackwell).
Up front Wisconsin has been starting a pair of twin towers this season in Nolan Winter (6'11") and Steven Crowl (7'0"). Winter (6.0 rpg) and Crowl (5.2 rpg) and they've combined to average 20 ppg this season. Both bigs also have some floor-stretching capabilities -- they've each attempted 20+ 3-pointers this season -- though Winter is the more dangerous of the two from deep; his 34.4% 3-point clip (11-of-32) is actually second-best on the team.
Carter Gilmore and Xavier Amos (both 6'7") have been getting a fair amount of minutes in the forward rotation as well, but any lineup with both Winters and Crowl will pose some definite matchup headaches for the Hawkeyes, who may need to utilize Riley Mulvey and Even Brauns for longer stretches during this game if Iowa's other forwards have difficulty against Wisconsin bigs.