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Published Jan 15, 2023
Preview: Iowa vs Maryland
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Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: Maryland Terrapins (11-5, 2-3 Big Ten)
WHEN: 3:30 PM CT
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN (Dave Revsine and Brian Butch)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin and Bobby Hansen) | Sirius/XM 383
MOBILE: www.foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -5.5
KENPOM: Iowa -3 (62% chance of winning)

PROJECTED STARTING FIVE

Iowa
G Tony Perkins (10.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.4 bpg, 38.0 FG%, 28.9 3FG%)
G Ahron Ulis (5.3 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.2 bpg, 34.1 FG%, 28.2 3FG%)
F Connor McCaffery (7.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.0 bpg, 43.8 FG%, 36.8 3FG%)
F Kris Murray (21.4 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.7 spg, 1.2 bpg, 51.5 FG%, 37.5 3FG%)
F Filip Rebraca (14.4 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 0.6 spg, 1.5 bpg, 57.6 FG%, 40.0 3FG%)

Maryland
G Jahmir Young (14.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.8 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.6 bpg, 42.0 FG%, 29.5 3FG%)
G Donald Carey (7.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.4 spg, 0.0 bpg, 34.8 FG%, 29.0 3FG%)
F Hakim Hart (11.9 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.3 bpg, 52.0 FG%, 35.8 3FG%)
F Donta Scott (12.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.1 bpg, 41.4 FG%, 28.8 3FG%)
C Julian Reese (10.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.9 bpg, 66.3% FG, 0 3FG%)

PREVIEW

The Terrapins went 15-17 last year, their first losing season in almost 30 years. Former coach Mark Turgeon resigned and was replaced by assistant Danny Manning, who guided the Terps to a 10-14 record the rest of the season. They lost twice to Iowa, including a memorable 110-87 shellacking in College Park last February. Manning wasn't retained after the season and was replaced by Kevin Willard, who had spent the last 12 seasons at Seton Hall, where he had guided the Pirates to five NCAA Tournament appearances in his final seven seasons (though just one NCAA Tournament win in that stretch). Willard got off to an 8-0 start in his debut season at Maryland, including a win in his Big Ten opener against Illinois. That was followed by a close road loss to Wisconsin and a narrow neutral court loss to Tennessee, before the three-game losing streak culminated with a 27-point home loss against UCLA. Since returning to Big Ten play, the Terps have gone 1-2, getting trounced by Michigan and Rutgers but recording a very solid win over Ohio State last Sunday.

The strength of this Maryland team so far has been its defense, particularly in contesting shots and denying good looks to opponents. Opponents are posting an effective field goal percentage of just 44.9% against the Terps, which ranks 19th best nationally. Opponents are making only 29.9% of their 3-point tries and 45.0% of their 2-point attempts, both of which rank in the top 35 nationally in terms of defensive stats. Maryland doesn't force a lot of steals (only 7.9% of opponent possessions end in a steal), but they do get a respectable number of blocks (10.1%, 118th nationally) and are very good at forcing non-steal turnovers (10.7%, 52nd).

On offense, the Terrapins are good at making shots inside the arc (54% on 2-point attempts, 46th nationally) and very bad at making shots behind the arc (31.4% on 3-point attempts, 286th nationally). Obviously, we've seen plenty of otherwise-poor shooting players (or teams) come into a game against Iowa and suddenly find their shooting touch, but the stats definitely suggest that forcing Maryland to attempt more jump shots might be a winning strategy. And, indeed, in all five of Maryland's losses this season, the offense fizzling out has been a key factor. Maryland hasn't topped 60 points (or 41% from the field) in any of those five defeats.

Maryland has one of the more experienced teams in Division I, routinely starting four seniors and a sophomore, though those starters don't necessarily have a lot of experience playing together. The Terps starting backcourt last season, Fatts Russell and Eric Ayala, departed after the season and Willard has replaced them with experienced faces from the transfer portal, Jahmir Young (6'1", 185) and Donald Carey (6'5", 187). Young, a Charlotte transfer, leads the team in scoring (14.9 ppg) and assists (2.8 apg), but hasn't been a particularly good shooter (42% FG, 29.5% 3FG). Carey, on his fourth team in five seasons, has been an even worse shooter (34.8% FG, 29% 3FG).

The Terps' frontcourt features three players (Donta Scott, Hakim Hart, and Julian Reese) who are all 6'8" or 6'9" and averaging double-digits in scoring and 5+ rebounds per game. Reese has been Maryland's best shooter (66% FG), mainly because he takes his shots near the basket. Hart has been Maryland's best outside shooter among players attempting at least 50 3s this season, converting 35.8% from deep on the year.

KEY FACTORS

A fast start would go a long way to helping Iowa get a victory over Maryland on Sunday. The Terps have fallen behind by double-digits in the first ten minutes of all five of their losses this season (including deficits of 19-7, 21-4, and 15-4 against UCLA, Michigan, and Rutgers, respectively). They clawed their way back into the games against Tennessee and Wisconsin before losing narrowly, but early deficits still proved costly. If Iowa can make some shots early and build a lead, it would put a lot of pressure on a Maryland offense that isn't built to score a lot of points in a hurry.

One thing to watch today -- does Fran McCaffery tinker with Iowa's starting lineup or rotations? Iowa got excellent minutes (and valuable production) off the bench from Josh Dix and Payton Sandfort in Iowa's win over Michigan on Thursday -- could one of them replace Ahron Ulis or Tony Perkins, both struggling of late, in the starting lineup? Or are they more valuable in providing a spark off the bench?

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