Preview: Iowa vs No. 4 Purdue MBB
WHO: #4 Purdue Boilermakers (7-1, 0-1 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Monday, December 4, 2023)
WHERE: Mackey Arena (West Lafayette, IN)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Purdue -12.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Purdue -13 (Purdue 88% chance of winning; Purdue 92, Iowa 79)
A week ago, it looked like Iowa would be facing a #1-ranked team in this game. Then Purdue went and lost to Northwestern on Friday night in Evanston, 92-88 in OT. That loss dropped Purdue a few spots in the Top 25 rankings, but they remain a legitimate national title contender this season.
Purdue already has wins over Xavier, Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette this season; it was those back-to-back-to-back wins over the Zags, Vols, and Golden Eagles that allowed Purdue to ascend to the #1 ranking in the first place. This would be a battle-tested team just based on those results, let alone the fact that it also returns 3/5 starters from a team that went 29-6 last season.
PROJECTED PURDUE STARTING FIVE
G Braden Smith (6'0", 175, 12.9 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 7.0 apg, 1.8 spg, 50 FG%,45.8 3FG%)
G Lance Jones (6'1", 200, 10.3 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.1 apg, 39.4 FG%, 34.1 3FG%)
G Fletcher Loyer (6'4", 180, 10.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.1 apg, 39.1 FG%, 37.1 3FG%)
F Mason Gillis (6'6", 225, 4.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.1 apg, 45.8 FG%, 50.0 3FG%)
C Zach Edey (7'4", 300, 23.5 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 2.9 bpg, 60.8 FG%, 72.9% FT)
Even without factoring in the issue of facing an angry Purdue team looking to bounce back from Friday's loss, this looked like an incredibly daunting game for Iowa to try and win. For one, it's in West Lafayette, which has been as notable a house of horrors for Iowa basketball under Fran McCaffery as any venue in the league.
Iowa is 1-9 in games in West Lafayette under McCaffery and the results have only gotten more lopsided since Iowa's only win there in the 2015-16 season. Since that game (a 70-63 Iowa win), the Hawkeyes have lost five in a row to the Boilermakers in West Lafayette. The average score of those games? Purdue 89, Iowa 70. The only loss that's been any closer than 14 points was a 77-70 defeat in 2021 in which Iowa mounted a furious (but fruitless) comeback late.
This year's Purdue team looks a lot like last year's dominant team, with a few notable differences. They're still elite on offense (4th in offensive efficiency) and defense (9th in defensive efficiency), but they're actually playing at a (much) faster tempo this season. Purdue was 324th in tempo last season, but the Boilermakers are up to 60th in tempo this season and averaging 8 more possessions per game. In fact, they're playing at the second-fastest tempo in the Big Ten this year, behind only (of course) Iowa (9th).
Purdue is also making 3s at a much better clip this season. The Boilermakers made 32.2% of their 3-point attempts last year, which ranked 276th last season. So far this season, they're shooting 40.9% from behind the arc, 9th best nationally. They aren't attempting more 3s than they were a year ago -- they're actually attempting slightly fewer as a percentage of their field goal attempts -- but they're more effective when they do launch from deep.
The alpha and omega of Purdue hoops, of course, is Zach Edey, their 7'4", 300 lb behemoth at center and the prohibitive favorite to be National Player of the Year. Edey is having a monster start to the season, averaging 24 points and 11 rebounds on 73% shooting in just 29 minutes per game. He hasn't been padding his stats against cupcakes, either -- his lowest-scoring games this season have been in Purdue's wins over Samford, Morehead State, and Texas Southern, while he's had at least 23 points in all of Purdue's games against quality competition.
Interestingly, while Purdue has had a lot of success against Iowa in recent seasons, Edey himself has not done well against Iowa, at least in terms of scoring.
22-23: Purdue W (87-73): 14 points (4/7 FG, 6/6 FT), 14 rebounds, 4 assists, 5 blocks
21-22: Iowa W (75-66): 12 points (4/8 FG, 4/5 FT), 14 rebounds
21-22: Purdue W (83-73): 6 points (2/4 FG, 2/2 FT), 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal
21-22: Purdue W (77-70): 6 points (2/4 FG, 2/3 FT), 7 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal
Edey's been able to find ways to be effective and impactful -- 14 rebounds, 5 blocks, and 4 assists in Purdue's win last year certainly speaks to that.
Still, this year's Iowa team looks like it will be hard-pressed to contain Edey. Ben Krikke is Iowa's primary big this season, but he lacks size (6'9", 245) and isn't a strong overall defender. Patrick McCaffery and Payton Sandfort have seen time at the forward positions this season, but neither is well-suited to slowing down Edey.
The most intriguing options may be off the bench in Ladji Dembele (6'8", 250) and Owen Freeman (6'10", 230). Freeman, in particular, has the most size on the Iowa roster to counter Edey, but he doesn't have the strength or experience to contain Edey.
Of course, Purdue hasn't needed Edey to have monster games to beat Iowa in the past, which speaks to the depth of their teams and the quality of their overall offensive attack. Last season, Purdue swept Iowa aside with five players in double figures (including Edey), with Braden Smith leading the way with 24 points. Purdue went 10-of-27 from 3-point range, including a 4-of-5 effort from Smith.
Smith is back this season and he's leading the team in 3-point percentage as well as averaging 7.0 assists per game (and ranking 40th nationally in assist rate). Slowing down Smith may be even more important than slowing down Edey, especially since the latter is likely to get his no matter what Iowa tries on defense.
Fletcher Loyer and Lance Jones have attempted the most 3s for Purdue this season (41 and 35, respectively), making them at 37.1 and 34.1% clips, respectively. They're very capable of getting hot and torching Iowa from outside.
Can Iowa take any lessons from what Northwestern did to upset Purdue on Friday night? Maybe. The Wildcats out-shot Purdue from 3-point range (10-of-20 vs 5-of-19) and they did a much better job of protecting the ball (3 turnovers vs 17 for the Boilermakers). Purdue hasn't been good at forcing turnovers on defense this season (they rank 341st nationally), and Iowa has been excellent at avoiding turnovers on offense this season (5th best nationally).
Iowa is shooting 35.6% from 3-point range (95th), but has shooters who are capable of getting hot, like the Sandfort brothers, McCaffery, Tony Perkins, Josh Dix, and Brock Harding. Iowa will need at least a few of them to be clicking from behind the arc to have a shot at pulling the upset.
As for Edey, he got his -- and then some -- against the Wildcats, with 35 points, 14 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Northwestern won because their backcourt outplayed Purdue's backcourt -- Boo Buie had 31 points, 9 assists, 3 rebounds, and zero turnovers, while Ryan Langborg and Ty Berry combined for 41 points on 7-of-10 shooting from 3-point range. If Iowa is going to upset Purdue, it will probably take similarly big efforts from Perkins, Payton Sandfort, and a third perimeter player (perhaps Dix or Dasonte Bowen).
This is a game where little is expected of Iowa, so they should have the freedom of playing with little to no pressure. Time to see what they can do against one of the Big Ten's best this season.