PREVIEW: Iowa vs North Carolina (NCAA Tournament)
WHO: North Carolina Tar Heels (35-22 overall; 14-14 ACC; regional 3-seed)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Friday, June 2, 2023)
WHERE: Bob Warn Field (Terre Haute, IN)
TV: ACC Network (Sam Ravech and Danan Hughes)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (John Leo and John Evans) | YouTube
MOBILE: www.espn.com/app
ONLINE: ESPN+
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @UIBaseball | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -1.5 (O/U: 11.5)
NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS
Iowa opens up regional play against North Carolina at 6 PM CT on Friday, June 2. The Tar Heels (or Diamond Heels, as they prefer to call themselves) went .500 (14-14) in an ACC conference that put 8* teams into the Field of 64. UNC was 19-7 against non-ACC teams this season and 32-7 against unranked teams.
*Only the SEC, with 10, has more teams in the tournament.
As you'd probably expect, Iowa and North Carolina don't have much history against one another; UNC won the first-ever meeting between the clubs, a 5-3 win in the 1990 NCAA Regionals. Iowa picked up a 5-4 win in the rematch 30 years later at the Cambria Classic non-conference event in Minneapolis, MN.
Nor do Iowa and North Carolina have many common opponents this season. Just one, in fact -- Penn State. Iowa split two games against the Nittany Lions in April, taking a 9-6 win in the series opener but losing 8-3 in the second game of the series. North Carolina beat Penn State 15-5 in early March.
PROBABLE PITCHING MATCHUP
UNC: Jake Knapp (5-3, 4.79 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, .251 opp BA, 60 K, 33 BB)
IOWA: Marcus Morgan (4-2, 3.88 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, .177 opp BA, 67 K, 47 BB)
Knapp has been UNC's top starting pitcher this season; he leads the Heels in wins and ERA and has allowed the fewest hits among their three primary starters.
Morgan is set to get the start for Iowa tonight; he also started in Iowa's first game of the Big Ten Tournament against Michigan and pitched the first few innings in last Sunday's Big Ten Championship Game against Maryland. Morgan ranks 5th nationally in fewest hits allowed per inning (5.37), and opposing hitters haven't been able to do much against him this season when he's been sharp.
The key for Morgan will be his control -- he has a 1.4:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and he's also thrown 12 wild pitches and hit 12 batters on the season. If his control is once again erratic, he could run into some problems against a UNC lineup that features some heavy hitters.
Iowa was able to avoid overusing any pitchers during the Big Ten Tournament last week and they've also had four days of rest since that event, so almost every arm in the Iowa lineup should be available today if necessary — though Brody Brecht and Ty Langenberg, Iowa's other starters, will assuredly be saved for Iowa's other games in the Regional.
HITTERS TO KNOW
The top hitter to know for UNC is Mac Horvath, the only player in Division I this season with at least 20 home runs (22), 20 doubles (20), and 20 steals (24). Horvath also leads the team in RBIs (62) and slugging percentage (.704) and ranks second in OBP (.419). He's a guy who can definitely do some damage at the plate, or on the base paths.
Four other Heels are hitting .300 or better this season, led by Tomas Frick, who leads the team at .326 and has a slugging percentage of .587 and an OBP of .414. He leads the team in doubles (21), and is second (behind Horvath) in home runs (12) and RBI (60).
Hunter Stokely (.323 / .505 / .414, 14 doubles, 6 HR), Casey Cook (.322 / .412 / .434, 11 doubles, 2 HR), and Jackson Van De Brake (.314, / .498 / .441, 14 doubles, 8 HR) are UNC's other top hitters.
A position player of note that Iowa won't have to worry about: freshman All-American Vance Honeycutt. Honeycutt is a top prospect in the 2024 MLB Draft and was the ACC Defensive Player of the Year this season, but he's expected to miss the NCAA Regional with a lower back injury.
Finally, as a team the Heels are very patient hitters. They've drawn 321 walks this season, which ranks 21st nationally. They've also been hit by pitches 81 times this season (60th nationally). Iowa's staff will need to control the strike zone without letting the Diamond Heel hitters sit on pitches to hit.
On the Iowa side of things, it should be the same lineup that tore through the opposition at the Big Ten Tournament (until the title game, at least). Keaton Anthony, Iowa's top hitter on the season (.389 / .701 / .505, 22 doubles, 9 HR) is still being held out due to the ongoing investigation into gambling allegations.
Iowa has five other hitters hitting .300 or better this season, led by Brennen Dorighi and Sam Petersen. Dorighi (.340 / .617 / .459) is leading Iowa in hits (71), runs scored (62), RBIs (61), home runs (13), and is second only to Anthony in doubles (19). Petersen (.331 / .623 / .454) is second on the team in home runs (11) and also has 9 doubles and has been on a tear to end the season.
Brayden Frazier (.321 / .500 / .411) has also been hitting the ball well down the stretch and 10 of his 34 hits this season have been doubles. Michael Seegers (.314 / .443 / .422, 7 doubles, 4 HR) and Raider Tello (.305 / .430 / .403, 14 HR, 4 HR) have been Iowa's other top hitters this season. But don't sleep on Kyle Huckstorf, either -- he's hitting .288 / .495 / .392 with 13 doubles, 6 HR, and a team-high 5 triples. He's also been one of Iowa's hottest hitters over the last few weeks, with more than a few clutch hits.