WHO: Troy Trojans (0-2)

WHEN: 3:05 PM CT (Saturday, September 14, 2024)

WHERE: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)

TV: FS1 (Eric Collins, Spencer Tillman)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Pat Angerer, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 138/196

MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile

ONLINE: foxsports.com/live

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @HawkeyeFootball | @CFBONFOX | @IowaonBTN

WEATHER: partly cloudy, temps around 80, minimal wind

LINE: Iowa -21.5 (total of 38.5)

After last weekend's disappointing come-from-ahead 20-19 loss to Iowa State, the Hawkeyes have to pick themselves up for one final non-conference game, a home clash with Troy. Iowa has never played Troy before; in fact, the Trojans will be just the fourth Sun Belt team that the Hawkeyes have ever faced.

The Trojans, 0-2 this year, would have been a more formidable opponent last season, when they went 11-3 and won the Sun Belt conference championship game. Still, the Trojans mostly showed themselves to be a best-of-the-rest-type squad rather than a team that could contend with strong Power 4 teams -- Troy went 0-2 against P4 opponents last season, getting thrashed 42-13 at Kansas State and losing 17-10 to Duke in the Birmingham Bowl.

Last year's success catapulted former Troy head coach Jon Sumrall to Tulane; his replacement is Gerad Parker, the former Notre Dame offensive coordinator best known to Big Ten fans as Purdue's interim head coach in 2016 (he went 0-6). Not only are the Trojans breaking in a new coach, though, they're doing so with an almost entirely new roster.

The Trojans have 61 newcomers this season, including 31 transfers. Troy has just 12 seniors on its roster (tied with Illinois for the fewest in the nation) and has already played 12 freshmen. 16 players have made their first career FBS starts for the Trojans on offense and defense already this season.

Troy ranks 80th in rushing offense (146.0 ypg), 100th in scoring offense (21.5 ppg), and 104th in passing offense (175.0 ypg) and total offense (321 ypg). Those numbers are a notable step down for an offense that averaged over 400 yards per game and almost 30 ppg last season. Suffice to say, the Trojans have been struggling to find their footing on the offensive side of the ball.

Junior QB Goose Crowder was the main backup last year, though he played sparingly (9-of-13 for 94 yards and one touchdown pass). He's taken over as the starter in 2024, going 25-for-37 (67.6%) for 237 yards and one touchdown pass. He's also picked up 45 yards and a touchdown on 12 rushing attempts so far.

Crowder's top targets this season have been junior WR Devonte Ross, who has 10 catches for 129 yards and a touchdown, and junior WR Peyton Higgins, who has 11 grabs for 91 yards. Both Ross and Higgins were on the Trojans last year, with Ross finishing with 40 receptions for 428 yards and three scores.

The Trojans have been slightly more successful running the ball, with junior Damien Taylor going from understudy in 2023 (67 carries, 346 yards, 1 TD) to leading rusher in 2024 (18 carries, 136 yards, 1 TD). East Carolina transfer Gerald Green is the official starter at RB, and leads the team with 21 carries, for 60 yards (2.86 yards per carry) and a touchdown.

The Trojans have given up just two sacks this season, but they've been less successful at avoiding negative plays overall -- they've allowed 14 tackles for loss so far, which ranks 107th nationally. Troy has also had trouble turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns; through two games, the Trojans have four touchdowns on seven red zone trips, a 57% conversion rate that ranks 81st nationally.

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As much as Troy has struggled on offense, the Trojans have been even worse on defense through two games. Troy ranks 94th in total defense (382.5 ypg), 103rd in pass efficiency defense (144.3 efficiency rating allowed, 115th in scoring defense (33.0 ppg), and 119th in rush defense (212.5 ypg).

Opponents have completed 71.7% of their passes against the Trojans, with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. They've had even more joy running the ball, though, averaging over 200 yards and three touchdowns per game. Opponents have picked up 6.75 yards per rush this season, the third-most allowed in the nation.

Obviously there can be a lot of noise in stats this early in the season, but the struggles defending the run have been present in both of Troy's losses -- Nevada ran for 214 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the opener, while Memphis racked up 211 yards and four touchdowns last week.

The Trojans returned just two of their top 11 tacklers from last season, linebackers Jordan Stringer (68 tackles) and Terry Thomas (41 tackles). LB Brendan Jackson, a Gardner-Webb transfer, leads Troy with 16 tackles this season.

The defensive line, which has yet to record a sack this year and has just 2.5 tackles for loss, features a slew of junior college transfers (end Raymond Cutts, tackles Kam Curry and Jamel Fils-Amine), as well as Cincinnati transfer Jah-Mal Williams at end. Those new faces have not had much success rushing the passer or stopping the run so far.

The secondary is another area of the defense full of name tags, as the only returning player is safety Justin Powe (second on the team with 14 tackles). At cornerback, Troy has Damaje Yancey, a redshirt freshman, and LJ Green, a transfer from Southern Utah. In addition to Powe at safety, the Trojans also have Ian Conerly-Goodly, a transfer from Southeastern Louisiana, and "spear" (think Iowa's CASH position) Devin Lafayette, a Northern Illinois transfer. Troy has yet to record an interception and has just six pass break-ups on the year, led by Yancey and Jackson with two apiece.

The kicking game is one area of the roster where Troy actually does have continuity, with both placekicker Scott Taylor Renfroe and punter Robert Cole returning from last season. Renfroe has made all three of his field goal attempts in 2024, after converting 19-of-24 tries (79%) last season. Cole has punted the ball eight times for 338 yards through two games, a 42.3 yards per punt average that's comparable to what he did last year: 52 punts for 2198 yards, a 42.3 yards per kick average.

The last time Iowa lost to Iowa State (in 2022), the Hawkeyes bounced back the next week with a 27-0 win over Nevada. Could something similar be in store this season? The 0-2 Trojans look well-suited to provide a bounce-back opportunity for an Iowa team that melted down in the second half last week.

Troy looks particularly well-suited to be an accommodating presence for the Hawkeye offense. Iowa had only one decent offensive drive in the second half last week and needs a get-right performance badly. Enter: Troy, a team ranked near the bottom of the nation in most defensive categories so far this season and relying heavily on freshmen, JUCO players, and transfers.

This feels like a game where the Iowa offensive line will be able to establish dominance at the line of scrimmage and open up lanes for the running backs. The running game has been the best part of Iowa's offense so far this year, while run defense has been the weakest part of Troy's defense. On paper, that's a matchup that should tilt heavily toward Iowa.

How much would a good performance by the Iowa offense mean against a defense that's struggled as much as Troy's has this season? Maybe not a lot, but if Iowa's offense can't take advantage of the favorable matchups it's likely to get, that would be an ominous sign for the rest of the season. It's also a unit that needs a confidence boost after last week's collapse.

The prediction here is that Iowa runs for 250+ yards, led by Kaleb Johnson with another 100-yard day. A concerted effort to get Luke Lachey more involved will pay off with at least four receptions and his first touchdown grab of the season. The defense will hold Troy under 150 yards, but the second unit will concede a late touchdown.

Iowa 34, Troy 7