Published Nov 15, 2024
PREVIEW: Iowa vs Washington State
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: Washington State Cougars (3-0)

WHEN: 7:30 PM CT (Friday, November 15, 2024)

WHERE: Vibrant Arena at The MARK (Moline, IL)

TV: BTN (Kevin Kugler, Jess Settles)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)

MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile

ONLINE: foxsports.com/live

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @CBBonFOX | @IowaonBTN

LINE: Iowa -5.5 (total of 170.5)

KENPOM: Iowa -8 (Iowa 77% chance of winning)

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PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP

G Brock Harding (6'0", 165 lbs; 5.3 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 6.0 apg; 38.5 FG%; 60.0 3FG%)

G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 15.7 ppg; 2.7 rpg; 4.3 apg; 54.8 FG%; 44.4 3FG%)

F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.3 ppg; 7.7 rpg; 5.3 apg; 45.9 FG%; 43.5 3FG%)

F Ladji Dembele (6'8", 255 lbs; 6.7 ppg, 6.3 rpg; 0.7 apg; 50.0 FG%; 33.3 3FG%)

C Owen Freeman (6'10", 245 lbs; 15.0 ppg; 8.5 rpg; 1.5 apg; 57.1 FG%; 50.0 3FG%)

Obviously, this Iowa lineup is far from locked -- Freeman didn't start against South Dakota on Tuesday and Dembele's ability to hold onto the starting spot at the 4 is far from a guarantee. For that matter, Harding's hold on the starting PG position is not a sure thing, given how well Morehead State transfer Drew Thelwell has played off the bench this year.

As far as Freeman is concerned, he indicating he was doing better after dealing with an illness earlier in the week. "Better. Just was under the weather -- feel better now. Needed a couple days," Freeman said in his media availability earlier this week.

Given that Friday night's game is in Moline, where Freeman and Harding starred in high school, it would be a surprise if they didn't start this game (presuming good health). This game was scheduled in Moline because of Freeman and Harding's ties there, after all.

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PROJECTED WASHINGTON STATE STARTING LINEUP

G Nate Calmese (6'2"; 164 lbs; 17.7 ppg; 2.0 rpg; 4.7 apg; 51.4 FG%; 33.3 3FG%)

G Cedric Coward (6'6"; 206 lbs; 15.0 ppg; 7.7 rpg; 3.3 apg; 57.1 FG%; 46.2 3FG%)

F LeJuan Watts (6'6"; 233 lbs; 13.0 ppg; 9.7 rpg; 3.0 apg; 53.8 FG%; 20.0 3FG%)

F Dane Erikstrup (6'11"; 226 lbs; 14.0 ppg; 4.3 rpg; 1.0 apg; 39.4 FG%; 34.8 3FG%)

C Ethan Price (6'10"; 230 lbs; 13.7 ppg; 7.0 rpg; 2.0 apg; 60.0 FG%; 50.0 3FG%)

PREVIEW

Both Iowa and Washington State take shiny 3-0 undefeated records into Friday night's game in the Quad Cities; obviously someone is going to come out of the game with their first loss of the season. It's also a team that should feature two very high-powered offenses with similar styles.

"They score the ball a lot, they've got a lot of shooters, two 6-10+ guys that have shot 20-plus 3s on the season," Brock Harding said in his media availability yesterday. "Five guys that really spread it out, they can rebound, they can get out in transition and run. I think it will be an up-tempo game."

The stats back up Harding's assessment. The Cougars haven't been held under 90 points in a game this season; their 93.7 ppg average ranks 21st nationally. By comparison, Iowa is averaging 91.3 ppg this season, 30th nationally. WSU also ranks 52nd in adjusted tempo; Iowa ranks 46th. As usual, Iowa ranks high in offensive efficiency (14th nationally), but Washington State fares well in that category too (63rd).

Washington State hasn't faced particularly notable competition yet -- though their strength of schedule has been more formidable than what Iowa has faced to date. Per KenPom, South Dakota is the toughest team Iowa has faced, at 246th in the KenPom rankings. (Southern sits at 281, and Texas A&M Commerce at 354.) Washington State has a win over a top-100 team in Bradley (98), as well as wins over Portland State (199) and Idaho (293).

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Washington State's biggest strength on offense has been rebounding -- the Cougars have been pounding the offensive glass and grabbing 41.8% of available offensive boards (15th nationally). The Cougars have posted a 58.4 eFG% (40th), including a 61.1% rate (43) on 2-point tries and a 37.1% rate (84) on 3-point attempts.

As a team, they're not afraid to launch threes -- five different players have attempted at least 12 shots from beyond the arc so far. Surprisingly, two of the most effective 3-point shooters on the team have been their two biggest starters. 6'11" Erikstrup leads the team with 8 made triples, while his 6'10" front court partner Price has drained 6 three-pointers.

Like Harding said, this is a team that can spread it out and it's a team with bigs that can stretch the floor and shoot, which will test Iowa's defense. Getting Freeman back for this game will provide Iowa with some more much-needed size to counter WSU's own size.

Washington State also spends a lot of time at the free throw line. They rank 52nd nationally in free throw rate and 23.5% of their total points come via the charity stripe (87th). They'll be up against an Iowa defense that doesn't foul much, though -- the Hawkeyes rank just 10th in opponent free throw rate. (Opponents are also shooting just 42.9% at the free throw line against Iowa this season, remarkably.)

Finally, while Washington State has used a very balanced scoring attack -- six guys who have played in all three games this season are averaging double figures in scoring (the five projected starters, plus Isaiah Watts, a guard averaging 13.0 ppg this season), they are not a deep team. The Cougars rank 300th in bench minutes and those top six players are averaging at least 25 minutes per game. If Iowa can get them in foul trouble and get to the players on the bench, the deeper Hawkeyes could have an advantage.

Overall, this is the first real measuring stick game for the Hawkeyes. They rolled through a trio of creampuffs to start the season, but Washington State looks good enough to give us a slightly better sense of the quality of this Iowa team, at least at this early point of the season.