WHO: Wisconsin Badgers (4-1, 2-0 Big Ten)
WHEN: 3:05 PM CT (Saturday, October 14, 2023)
WHERE: Camp Randall (Madison, WI)
TV: FOX (Jason Benetti, Brock Huard, Allison Williams)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Ed Podolak, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 198/96
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @HawkeyeFootball | @CFBONFOX | @IowaonBTN
WEATHER: low 50s, cloudy, 70% chance of rain in the morning
LINE: Wisconsin -9.5 (down to Wisconsin -9.0 as of Saturday morning)

It seems weird to say that the biggest game of the year is happening midway through the season -- but that's exactly the case for Iowa this week. Iowa faces Wisconsin in Madison, WI on Saturday and the stakes for the game are enormous. Halfway through the season, Iowa and Wisconsin look like the two best teams in the West division and the winner of this game will have a decisive edge in the race to win the final Big Ten West championship.

Iowa enters this game at 5-1 overall and 2-1 in Big Ten play, while Wisconsin enters the game at 4-1 overall and 2-0 in Big Ten play. A loss would put Iowa two games back of the Badgers in the division race, although without the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Hawkeyes would need Wisconsin to lose three of its final six games in order for Iowa to win the West. On the other side, Wisconsin would be in a similar position if Iowa pulls the upset on Saturday.

If Iowa loses to Wisconsin, the final five games of the season will be played without many stakes -- just the hope to win 10 games and improve bowl positioning. With divisions going away after this season -- and USC, UCLA, Washington, and Oregon joining the league -- this season might be Iowa's last, best hope to return to the Big Ten Championship Game for a while.

The buzz around Wisconsin entering the season was about the new-look Badger offense with Luke Fickell bringing Phil Longo from SMU and implementing an air raid passing attack in the home of the Big Ten's most potent ground-and-pound rushing game. The transition to an air raid attack hasn't happened overnight, though -- and Wisconsin hasn't abandoned the ground game, either.

In fact, Wisconsin has the Big Ten's best rushing attack -- the Badgers are leading the league in yards per game (203.6 ypg), yards per carry (5.19 ypc), and touchdowns (15). Wisconsin is running the ball 55% of the time on offense this season and the Badgers have been remarkably balanced in terms of offensive production -- 1049 yards through the air and 1018 yards on the ground.

The Badger rushing attack took a hit with the loss of Chez Mellusi (51 carries, 306 yards, 4 touchdowns) to a broken leg against Purdue, but even without Mellusi Wisconsin was still able to run for 212 yards (their second-best total this season) against Rutgers last week.

Braelon Allen remains the top threat in the Wisconsin running game and second in the big Ten in yards per game, with 472 yards and 7 touchdowns on 73 carries (6.5 ypc). A year ago, Iowa bottled up Allen and held him to 45 yards on 18 carries; they might need a similar defensive effort this season.

Like Longo, new QB Tanner Mordecai came to Madison from SMU and he's been fairly solid so far this season, completing 102/159 (64%) of his passes for 1022 yards (6.4 ypa), with three touchdowns and three interceptions. Two of Mordecai's three picks came in the season opener against Buffalo, but has only thrown one interception in his last four games. Mordecai is also a threat with his legs -- he's had 10+ carries in three of five games this year and ran for 152 yards (including sack yardage) so far this season.

Sophomore WR Will Pauling leads the team in receptions (22) and yards (243), though he hasn't found the end zone yet. Chimere Dike has been Wisconsin's top big play threat with 228 yards on 11 receptions (20.7 yards per catch). Bryson Green (10 catches, 118 yards) and Skyler Bell (14 receptions, 113 yards) are Wisconsin's other notable receivers.

While the Badgers have produced some excellent tight ends in the past, tight end production has been quiet so far this season. Tucker Ashcraft has five receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown, while Hayden Rucci has five receptions for 67 yards.

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Wisconsin has had some of the Big Ten's best defenses in recent years -- but this year's incarnation isn't at that same level. The Badgers rank 7th in the league in scoring defense (18.4 ppg), 9th in total defense (354.6 ypg), and 8th in yards per play allowed (5.09 ypp).

The Badgers rank 13th in pass defense (247.2 ypg), though the Badgers are 8th in completion percentage allowed (58.9%) and 6th in QB rating allowed (113.8). The pass defense has improved of late, though -- after allowing their first three opponents to complete at least 63% of their passes (and allowed Georgia Southern to throw for almost 400 yards), the Badgers have held their last two opponents (Purdue and Rutgers) to under 55% completion percentages and around 200 passing yards per game.

Wisconsin has also forced eight interceptions against seven touchdowns, though five of those eight interceptions came in one game (against Georgia Southern). The Badgers also had a pair of interceptions against Purdue three weeks ago.

Overall, Wisconsin has a +2 turnover margin on the season, with 10 turnovers forced against 8 turnovers conceded. Nine of those 10 turnovers came in the two games, against Georgia Southern game (five interceptions, one fumble recovery) and Purdue (two interceptions, one fumble recovery).

The Badgers are also 5th in the league in run defense (107.4 ypg) and 9th in yards per carry allowed (3.68 ypc). The Badgers have held three of five opponents to 81 yards rushing or less; only Purdue (31 carries, 198 yards, 2 touchdowns) has really had notable success against Wisconsin on the ground.

Finally, Wisconsin ranks 8th in the league in sacks with 13.0 so far this season. Much like the turnovers, though, most of those sacks came against Georgia Southern -- six of those 13 sacks came against the Eagles.

Wisconsin has gone to a safety-heavy approach in new defensive coordinator Mike Tressel's 3-3-5 defense, and safety Hunter Wohler has been the star of that defense. Wohler leads the team in tackles with 50 -- 25 more than the player with the next-most tackles (LB Jake Chaney, 25). Wohler also has three passes broken up, three tackles for loss, and two interceptions.

CB Ricardo Hallman has also been a standout for the Wisconsin defense, with a Big Ten-leading four interceptions this season (two against Purdue), as well as three passes broken up. He may not be the cornerback that Deacon Hill will want to challenge on Saturday.

DE James Thompson Jr. leads the team in sacks (3.0) and tackles for loss (4.5). OLB C.J. Goetz ranks second on the team in sacks (2.5), while OLB Darryl Peterson has also been disruptive, with 4.5 tackles for loss himself.

The most interesting special teams battle in this game figures to involve Iowa's punt return game against Wisconsin's punt return coverage. The Badgers are 6th in the Big Ten in punting with freshman punter Atticus Bertrams averaging 42.6 yards per punt on 20 kicks this season. While the distance on those punts hasn't been stellar (though 9 of 20 have been placed inside the 20-yard line), the Badgers have allowed just one punt return for a total of two yards.

On the other hand, Iowa leads the Big Ten in punt returns, with 215 yards on 17 returns this season (12.7 yards per return), highlighted by Cooper DeJean's 70-yard touchdown return against Michigan State. Finding yards in unexpected places (like defense or special teams) looks like a necessity for Iowa in this game, so finding a way to be successful on punt returns could be vital.

Sophomore kicker Nathanial Vakos has gone 8/9 on field goal attempts this season, with his only miss coming from 50+ yards. In a game where points could be at a premium, scoring points via field goals could be important. Drew Stevens has also been solid for Iowa this season on field goal tries (10/13), though he is coming off a 2/4 effort against Purdue last week.

It's not really clear how Iowa might win this game straight-up -- this isn't a great Wisconsin team, but the Badgers have been effective (and well-balanced) on offense and generally solid on defense. Their biggest weakness on paper -- pass defense -- does not like an area that Iowa is well-suited to exploit, given the Hawkeyes' season-long struggles in the passing game.

Wisconsin is also solid in preventing big plays -- 6th in the Big Ten in allowing plays of 20+ yards (17) and 5th in the league in allowing plays of 30+ yards (6). Iowa has been increasingly reliant on hitting chunk plays to move the ball this season; if Wisconsin is able to prevent those, Iowa is likely to have a very difficult time moving the ball on a consistent basis.

The path to an Iowa win here involves making the game ugly: the game needs to be defensive, low-scoring, and hard-hitting. And Iowa needs to create turnovers and/or make big plays in special teams to either create short fields and easier scoring opportunities for the offense (or just scoring plays, period, for the defense or special teams).

Unfortunately, too many things seem stacked against the Hawkeyes here. Deacon Hill has struggled with this throws in his first two extended appearances this season -- and that was in front of friendly Kinnick Stadium crowds. Now he's making his first road start in one of the Big Ten's most hostile road venues -- and against an opponent that probably knows his tendencies a bit better than most of Iowa's opponents this season, given that Hill was in Madison prior to transferring to Iowa.

This feels like a game where the opposing defense loads up the box to smother the Iowa running game, and the passing game isn't able to make many plays on second-and-long or third-and-long. That results in a lot of short possessions, a lot of punts, and (eventually) a very tired defense.

Wisconsin 20, Iowa 10