WHO: #14 Michigan Wolverines (13-2, 3-1 Big Ten)
WHEN: 3:30 PM CT, Saturday, January 7, 2023
WHERE: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, MI)
TV: FOX
ONLINE: www.foxsports.com/live
MOBILE: www.foxsports.com/mobile
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirus/XM 109 or 196

Four games into conference play, there are few if any “must-win” games. Last year was a great example. On February 14 Iowa lost at home to Maryland, and no one thought Iowa stood any chance of winning the Big Ten. In the next two weeks, Iowa did just that, defeating Top 10 Indiana twice in three days and defeating Top 10 Michigan in the final game of the regular season.

But last year’s Iowa team also gave itself no margin for error in those final two weeks. Had the Hawkeyes lost any of their final 4 games, they might’ve fallen all the way to fifth in the final conference standings.

Iowa currently sits tied for second in the Big Ten standings at 3-1. #6 Indiana, #12 Maryland, #14 Michigan, and #26 Illinois are also 3-1, and #3 Ohio State leads the conference at 4-0.

Unfortunately for Iowa, this year’s schedule is particularly brutal. The Hawks still have games remaining at Maryland, Indiana, and Ohio State. They also face Maryland and Indiana at home.

If the Hawks lose at Michigan on Saturday, they can probably only afford one or two more conference losses if they want to repeat as Big Ten champions. They would have to go 4-1 or 3-2 at worst against teams that are as good or better than Michigan and wouldn’t be able to drop any other games against unranked teams. That’s not impossible, but not incredibly likely, either.

Saturday’s game at Michigan might not be must-win, but the Hawks will leave themselves little room for error the rest of the season if they want to repeat as regular season conference champions.

The Wolverines are led this year by three players: post Emily Kizer and guards Laila Phelia and Leigha Brown.

Kizer leads the team in scoring, averaging 17.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg, and 3.1 apg. She can shoot from three (41.2% this year), but only attempts one three per game. Instead, she does most of her damage in the paint. Kizer’s career has been similar to that of Iowa’s Hannah Stewart from a few years ago. She didn’t start a game in her first three seasons at Michigan and didn’t play a lot of minutes. Then during her senior season, she was inserted into the starting lineup, but like Stewart, she largely played second fiddle to the best post in her school’s history. The difference between Stewart and Kizer is that Kizer got to return for a super senior season due to COVID, and now she is Michigan’s star post.

Phelia is Michigan’s most athletic wing option, and far more athletic than any of Iowa’s guards/wings. Last year as a freshman, she had two major flaws offensively: she couldn’t shoot well from three and she struggled to finish around the basket. So far, she appears to have fixed both issues. Her two-point shooting percentage has jumped from 40.3% to 48.3%, and her three-point shooting percentage has jumped from 27.8% to 41.2%. If there is one player that is going to burn Iowa on Saturday, my money is on Phelia.

Brown does a bit of everything for Michigan, averaging 15.3 ppg, 5.4 rpg, and 5.9 apg. Her big flaw this year is three-point shooting. For most of her career, she’s averaged in the low or mid 30s, but this year sits at just 20.7%.

Defensively for Iowa, this game will be won or lost with perimeter defense. Iowa has struggled in several games this year (Kansas State, North Carolina State, and Illinois) with stopping dribble penetration. Phelia is more athletic than most or all of the guards Iowa has faced this year. If Iowa struggles to stop penetration again, Michigan will score at the basket early and often on Saturday.

Offensively, Iowa needs more support from Kate Martin and Gabbie Marshall. Martin has had some huge games for Iowa, but has virtually disappeared in many others. Marshall plays an important role on Iowa’s defense, but her offense has regressed to the point where you can’t expect much if anything from her. Iowa needs her to return to the shooting specialist she’s been for most of her career.