Preview: Iowa WBB vs. 3-Seed LSU
WHO: 3-seed LSU Tigers (31-5 overall, 13-3 SEC)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Monday, April 1)
WHERE: MVP Arena (Albany, New York)
TV: ESPN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: https://www.espn.com/watch/
MOBILE: https://www.espn.com/watch/
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN
One nugget from Wright Thompson's excellent deep dive into Caitlin Clark was that LSU's strategy in last year's national championship game was to let Clark get her shots and limit her supporting cast. The Tigers realized that when Monika Czinano or Iowa's other starters got rolling, so did the Hawkeyes. In Iowa's losses, Clark had to carry too much of the scoring load.
The strategy worked last year, and it's largely been true this year, too. When Clark can facilitate and the other starters are hitting, Iowa rolls like it did over Colorado on Saturday. When Clark has to do too much, Iowa struggles, just like it did against West Virginia.
There's one notable exception to that trend. In the Final Four last year, South Carolina also tried to limit Clark's supporting cast. The Gamecocks were largely successful in doing so; Czinano scored 18 points, but no other Hawkeye player scored more than seven. The difference in the game was that Clark went supernova, scoring 41 points and having the answer every time South Carolina tried to seize momentum back.
This LSU team is significantly different than last year's title-winning team. Only three rotation players return from that team, and only two -- Angel Reese and Flau'jae Johnson -- played significant roles last year. LSU head coach Kim Mulkey is also back, and it's unlikely that her strategy will change much. Expect LSU to do all it can to limit Clark's ability to facilitate and make her outscore them.
How Clark manages that, and how Iowa handles LSU's rebounding and driving when the Hawks are on defense, will make or break this game.
All stats from this preview are from HerHoopStats.
Top Players
Angel Reese needs no introduction. She has been one of the most dominant players in the country, averaging 18.7 ppg, 13.2 rpg, and 1.9 spg. One relative weakness of Reese's game is her shooting, as she has shot only 48.6% on two-point attempts this season, and has only made one three-pointer all season. Reese also sometimes gets into foul trouble; she fouled out of the UCLA game on Saturday. Still, this will be Hannah Stuelke's toughest matchup of the season.
Another player who needs no introduction is Hailey Van Lith. The former Louisville guard transferred to LSU to be part of this super team, and might well be regretting that decision. For the year, she hasaveraged just 11.7 ppg, 3.7 apg, 2.5 rpg, while shooting 40.3% on two-pointers and 34.8% from three-point range. She's struggled significantly in the NCAA Tournament thus far, scoring only 18 points in three games while shooting just 20% from the field. In many recent games Van Lith has been the fifth scoring option or even benched for long periods.
Flau'jae Johnson does need a bit of an introduction. She was a starter on last year's national championship team, but wasn't yet a team leader. This year, she has been much better, and in recent games she's arguably been LSU's best player. Johnson had 24 points and 12 rebounds in LSU's win over UCLA. For the year, she's averaging 14.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.1 spg, and 1.0 bpg. She has made 53.2% of her two-point field goal attempts, and 39.5% of her three-point tries. At her best, Johnson can slash to the basket and shoot the three well, while also being a very good defender.
Aneesah Morrow is LSU's other big transfer -- from DePaul -- and she can be just as dominant as Reese. She's average 16.5 ppg, 9.9 rpg, and 2.6 spg this season, while shooting 50.1% on two-point attempts. Morrow has only made 13 three-pointers all season, so that shouldn't be a huge concern for Iowa. Matching her athleticism should be, though. Kate Martin and Sydney Affolter love to battle, but they don't have Morrow's bounce. If they want to keep her off the glass, they will have to use great positioning and physicality to do it.
6'0" guard/forward Mikaylah Williams is LSU's final starter, but shouldn't be overlooked. The freshman has averaged 14.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg, and 2.9 apg this season, while shooting 53.6% on two-point attempts and 37.3% from three-point range, though she only attempts four three-pointers per game. Williams loves to shoot in the mid range and has been converting those shots at a high rate. Iowa normally gives up those shots willingly, but shouldn't do so with Williams.
Overall, LSU has an extremely talented starting five, but aren't unbeatable because the pieces don't always fit together perfectly. None of LSU's starters are a point guard, so Van Lith has served in the role, even though she's a natural 2. Reese and Morrow are both phenomenal, but also have similar enough games that they don't necessarily compliment one another. And while LSU's guards can shoot the three, they often prefer to shoot in the mid range, which can hurt the spacing of the offense.
Play Style
LSU averages 77.7 possessions per 40 minutes, which is the ninth fastest pace nationally. This game could be a back and forth track meet if both teams are playing at their best.
Offensively, LSU struggles somewhat with shooting. The Tigers have shot 49.9% on two-point attempts, which ranks 42nd nationally, while converting 32.7% of their three-point attempts, which ranks 94th. They also score only 14.8% of their points from three-pointers, which ranks 355th out of 360 teams.
What the Tigers might lack in shooting, they have more than made up for in rebounding. The Tigers have grabbed an incredible 43.4% of available offensive rebounds, which leads the nation.
The Tigers also get to the free throw line more than anyone. They have attempted -- and made -- more free throws than any other team in the country. Those advantages in free throw rate and offensive rebounding have helped the Tigers rank third nationally in scoring, averaging 85.9 points per game.
Defensively, the Tigers surrender 80.5 points per 100 possessions, which ranks eighth. LSU's defense excels at getting steals, as the Tigers' 10.8 steals per game ranks 15th nationally. The Tigers also block plenty of shots, as their 5.4 blocks per game rank 10th.
LSU isn't quite as good on the defensive glass as it is on the offensive side. The Tigers' defensive rebounding rate is 71.1%, which ranks 106th. Iowa, for comparison, grabs 74.0% of available defensive rebounds, which ranks 32nd. Iowa might be able to find opportunities on the offensive glass.
LSU's Season
LSU advanced to the Elite Eight by defeating 14-seed Rice (70-60), 11-seed Middle Tennessee State (83-56), and 2-seed UCLA (78-69).
LSU's resume is thinner than you might expect for a team that came into the year as the unquestioned #1 in every poll. The Tigers' Sweet Sixteen victory over UCLA was easily their best of the season. After that, their best win was over 4-seed Virginia Tech at home (82-64). The Tigers' next best wins were over 6-seed Tennessee (75-60) and over 7-seed Ole Miss twice (84-73 and 75-67).
Arguably the Tigers' best results of the season were losses against South Carolina. The Tigers played the undefeated Gamecocks twice, losing 76-70 at home and 79-72 in the SEC Tournament.
Last year's LSU squad went 34-2 overall, but this year's team has been more vulnerable. On top of the South Carolina losses, the Tigers have also lost to the Colorado team that Iowa just beat (92-78). LSU also lost to a First Four team in Auburn (67-62) and a non-Tournament team in Mississippi State (77-73).
X-Factors
Rebounds, fouls, and Clark. Last year, LSU beat Iowa 37-26 in the rebounding battle. This year's LSU squad is even better on the offensive glass. If Iowa wants to beat the Tigers, the Hawkeyes will have to get plenty of stops and deny LSU second chance opportunities. Crashing the glass will be just as important as the initial defensive possession.
In LSU's first two NCAA Tournament games, the Tigers shot 31 and 37 free throw attempts respectively. In the Sweet Sixteen against UCLA, they only had 18 attempts. Iowa will need LSU to be much closer to 18 attempts to have a good shot at winning this game. If the Tigers get many more free throws than that, not only will they get easy points, but they will also likely have multiple Hawkeyes in foul trouble. With Molly Davis likely still out and Hannah Stuelke Iowa's best option at the 5 in a game like this, Iowa can't afford to be in foul trouble.
Finally, Clark has been in a bit of a shooting slump recently. She hasn't shot better than 40% from behind the arc since Iowa's game at Minnesota in late February. In that span, she's gone just 28-of-93 (30.1%) from deep.
Clark has a history of playing her best when the lights are brightest. The lights on Monday night will be as bright as they've been since last year's national championship game If she is able to break out of her long-range shooting slump, that could go a long way in helping Iowa return to the Final Four.