WHO: Nebraska Cornhuskers (17-13, 7-12 Big Ten)
WHEN: 11:30 AM CT (Sunday, March 9, 2025)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA) Pinnacle Bank Arena (Lincoln, NE)
TV: FOX (Kevin Kugler, Nick Bahe)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bobby Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Nebraska -7.5 (total of 155.5)
KENPOM: Nebraska -7 (73% chance of winning)
For a game between the teams currently sitting at 12th (Nebraska) and 16th (Iowa) place in the Big Ten standings, there's a surprising amount of intrigue for Sunday's regular season finale between the Hawkeyes and the Cornhuskers. Part of that intrigue stems from the new format of the Big Ten Tournament, which only admits the top-15 teams in the conference, leaving some teams at home for the first time in the tournament's history.
Entering Sunday's game, Nebraska is in the Big Ten Tournament field -- but their spot is tenuous. The Cornhuskers are 7-12 in the league, tied with Minnesota and Rutgers, a half-game up on USC and Northwestern, and a game better than Iowa. If the Cornhuskers lose and fall into a five-way tie (with Iowa, USC, Northwestern, and Minnesota/Rutgers), the tiebreakers do not favor the Huskers, who would have gone 1-4 against that group this season.
Not only are the Huskers on the Big Ten Tournament bubble, they're also on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Though it seems hard to believe that a team flirting with a 16th place finish in the Big Ten could be anywhere near the NCAA Tournament field, the Huskers are; ESPN's most recent mock bracket has them in the "first four out" category. The Huskers have plenty of work to do -- in addition to beating Iowa to make the Big Ten Tournament field, Nebraska would likely also need to win a few games in the Big Ten Tournament -- but that all starts with beating the Hawkeyes to ensure a spot in the Big Ten Tournament.
Iowa, of course, enters today's game on the outside looking in when it comes to the Big Ten Tournament. The Hawkeyes are in 16th place, outside the 15th-place cut-off line and need a win in order to move out of that spot. A win would put them into the 7-13 jumble, but they stack up well against the other teams in that mix. With a win over Nebraska, Iowa would finish either 13th in the league (if Rutgers wins) or 15th (if Minnesota wins).
But whether or not Iowa qualifies for the Big Ten Tournament isn't even the biggest source of Hawkeye-related intrigue for Sunday's game. No, that would be the question of whether this game will be Fran McCaffery's final game in charge of Iowa? A second-straight season without the NCAA Tournament and a season that's gone badly off the rails has raised the issue of whether it's time for Iowa to move on from McCaffery after 15 years in charge. For his part, McCaffery said earlier this week that he has no intention of resigning or "moving on" from Iowa at season's end.
PROJECTED IOWA STARTING LINEUP
G Drew Thelwell (6'3", 195 lbs; 9.7 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 51.5 FG%, 44.4 3FG%)
G Josh Dix (6'6", 210 lbs; 14.1 ppg; 3.2 rpg; 2.8 apg; 50.3 FG%; 42.7 3FG%)
F Payton Sandfort (6'8", 215 lbs; 16.1 ppg; 6.2 rpg; 2.9 apg; 39.6 FG%; 33.0 3FG%)
F Seydou Traore (6'7", 220 lbs; 6.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.3 apg, 44.6 FG%, 28.1 3FG%)
F Ladji Dembele (6'8", 255 lbs; 4.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 0.5 apg; 45.2 FG%, 39.4 3FG%)
"I think he's going to be available," McCaffery said of senior guard Drew Thelwell. "It's going to be a game-time decision."
Thelwell aggravated his previously-injured ankle late in the loss to Michigan State earlier this week.
PROJECTED NEBRASKA STARTING LINEUP
G Sam Hoiberg (6'0", 180 lbs; 3.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.6 apg, 47.4 FG%, 39.5 3FG%)
G Rollie Worster (6'5", 210 lbs; 7.2 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 2.6 apg, 43.8 FG%, 20.8 3FG%)
F Juwan Gary (6'6", 226 lbs; 13.7 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 0.8 apg, 44.0 FG%, 30.5 3FG%)
F Brice Williams (6'7", 214 lbs; 20.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 2.8 apg, 47.4 FG%, 36.2 3FG%)
C Berke Buyuktuncel (6'10", 244 lbs; 6.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 1.4 apg, 40.6 FG%, 28.0 3FG%)
PREVIEW
Nebraska is one of Iowa's three rematch opponents in conference play this year, so Iowa should have more familiarity with the Cornhuskers than most of their league foes this season. In fact, Nebraska was one of Iowa's six Big Ten wins this year, as the Hawkeyes used a furious comeback to beat the Huskers 97-87 in overtime back in early January.
In that earlier meeting, Nebraska led 34-31 at halftime and opened up a 15-point lead in the second half before the Hawkeyes were able to use red-hot late shooting to tie the game and send it to overtime, where they pulled away to win by 10. Josh Dix and Payton Sandfort were lights out, combining for 61 points on 18-of-29 shooting, including a scorching-hot 13-of-20 performance from beyond the three-point line. All 30 of Sandfort's points came after halftime.
Iowa probably needs them both to recapture some of that magic in order to have a shot at sweeping the Huskers this season. Sandfort and Dix have been struggling mightily during Iowa's current three-game losing skid, though, especially Sandfort -- Iowa's senior leader is averaging just 10.3 ppg over the last three games and has gone just 2-of-15 from deep in those losses. Dix has been better -- 13.0 ppg and 6-of-16 from long range over the last three games -- but still below his season averages.
For their part, Nebraska doesn't look too different than it did back when the Hawkeyes and Huskers first met two months ago. Senior wing Brice Williams was the star back then (28 points on 10-of-20 shooting, 4-of-9 from deep) and he remains the focal point of the offense, averaging over 20 ppg this year.
"I think Brice WIlliams is playing [at a] player of the year caliber [level]," McCaffery said of the Nebraska standout. "You know they're gonna defend the way they do and they're gonna compete. They've got a lot different players that can score. They have size. They have [also] down-shifted at some point and [gone] smaller, which they can do with [Juwan] Gary and Brice [Williams]. I think [Andrew] Morgan is playing really well and they have plenty of options at the point position."
Gary is Nebraska's second-leading scorer at 13.7 ppg and the 6'10" Morgan has been an impactful -- if inconsistent -- scorer of late as well, going for 14 or more in three of Nebraska's last six games, though he was also held under five points in two of those six games as well.
Nebraska does have more size as well, in the form of 6'10" UCLA transfer Berke Buyuktuncel and 7'1" Washington transfer Braxton Meah, though they haven't made much of an impact in recent games. Buyuktuncel missed three games a few weeks ago and has been quiet in his return, averaging just 1.3 ppg and 3.7 rpg over the last three games. Meah has topped five points just once in the last nine games and grabbed more than four rebounds just twice in that same span.
The Huskers are16th in offensive efficiency in league-only stats and 13th in defensive efficiency in league-only stats; there's a reason they're so close to the bottom of the Big Ten standings. The Hawkeyes, of course, have been even worse on defense -- especially away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Iowa still has just one true road win this season (at Rutgers).
This game seems likely to come down to which team wants it more and which team can get hot on offense. Unless Iowa can shake off a year's worth of terrible play away from home, the 2024-25 Hawkeye season seems likely to come to a conclusion on Sunday afternoon.