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Published Mar 29, 2024
Preview: Iowa WBB vs. 5-Seed Colorado
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Braydon Roberts  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Staff Writer

WHO: 5-seed Colorado Buffaloes (24-9 overall, 11-7 in PAC 12)
WHEN: 2:30 p.m. (Saturday, March 30)
WHERE: MVP Arena (Albany, New York)
TV: ABC
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: https://www.espn.com/watch/
MOBILE: https://www.espn.com/watch/
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN

This is a rematch from last year's Sweet Sixteen, but for much of this year it didn't seem like it would be possible for Iowa and Colorado to face each other so early in the NCAA Tournament. In the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee's first Top 16 reveal on February 15, Colorado was ranked as a 1-seed. The Buffaloes were 20-4 at that point, with wins over 1-seed USC, 2-seed Stanford, and 3-seed LSU. They seemed more likely to compete with Iowa for a 1-seed than to miss out on hosting the first two rounds.

The problem for the Buffaloes is that their schedule got extremely difficult at the end of the season. They had three games in a row at 5-seed Utah, at USC, and at 2-seed UCLA. Colorado lost all three of those games and ended up going 1-5 to end the regular season. The Buffaloes did win a game in the Pac-12 Tournament, but then lost to 3-seed Oregon State in the quarterfinals.

In the NCAA Tournament, Colorado advanced to the Sweet Sixteen with an 86-72 victory over 12-seed Drake and a 63-50 victory over 4-seed Kansas State in Manhattan last weekend.

Overall, Colorado has had an up and down season. The Buffaloes have shown they can beat some of the best teams in the nation, but struggled late in the year, particularly away from home. On Saturday, they'll play on a neutral court, but they will be more tn 1,800 miles from campus -- and dealing with a very pro-Iowa crowd.

Stats from this preview are from HerHoopStats.

Top Players

All of Colorado's major contributors from last year are back this year.

6'3" post Aaronette Vonleh is Colorado's leading scorer. She averages 14.0 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.1 bpg, while shooting 55.6% on two-point attempts. Vonleh is a solid scoring option in the paint, but isn't a particularly good rebounder for her height and position.

5'7" guard Jaylyn Sherrod is one of the fastest players in the country. She averages 12.9 ppg, 4.9 apg, 3.1 rpg, 2.2 spg. Sherrod's quickness is a significant weapon, though its effectiveness in the half court might be muted somewhat if Iowa plays a lot of zone. Her biggest weakness is shooting. She shoots 49.8% on two-point attempts, but just 23.9% on three-point shots. Whatever defense Iowa uses, the Hawkeye defenders will likely give Sherrod plenty of space to shoot from distance.

5'11" guard Frida Formann is Colorado's best shooter. She averages 12.5 ppg and shoots 48.3% on two-pointers and 42.2% on three-point attempts. Iowa will do its best to not give Formann any space to shoot from three. She's lethal if she gets open and has time to shoot.

6'3" forward Quay Miller is Colorado's most versatile player. She spends plenty of time on the perimeter, but can also score inside and is Colorado's best rebounder. She averages 9.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, while shooting 44.0% on two-point attempts and 33.0% from distance.

5'11" guard Maddie Nolan is a graduate transfer from Michigan. She doesn't score a lot of points (6.5 ppg) but gives Colorado a second three-point threat, as she shoots 42.5% from three.

Iowa used its triangle-and-two defense for much of the first half against West Virginia, and Iowa could choose to do so against Colorado as well. The Buffaloes only have two good three-point shooters, and using the triangle would keep two rebounders around the basket and limit the space Sherrod has to drive.

Play Style

Colorado averages 71.4 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 126th nationally. Like West Virginia, they might choose to slow things down a bit to limit Iowa's ability to run.

Offensively, Colorado shoots well on two-point attempts (50.5%, 37th) and three-pointers (35.6%, 29th). Formann and Nolan take the vast majority of Colorado's threes, though, and the Buffaloes' remaining players shoot the three at a much lower collective rate.

The Buffaloes are really good at sharing the ball, as their 18.6 assists per game ranks 12th. They also don't turn the ball over much (13.9 per game, 74th). Colorado isn't a particularly good offensive rebounding team, ranking just 124th in offensive rebounding rate (32.6%).

Colorado is likely the worst defensive team that Iowa could face the rest of the way. The Buffaloes surrender 63.5 points per game, which ranks 142nd. In particular, Colorado struggles to defend the three-point line. Opponents have shot 33.9% on three-pointers against the Buffaloes, which ranks 310th. They are better at defending two-point attempts (43.7%, 121st).

Colorado is good at generating steals, though, averaging 10.0 steals per game (33rd). The Buffaloes are also very good on the defensive glass and rank 11th in defensive rebounding date at 75.4%.

Iowa vs. Colorado Last Year

Iowa started off the Sweet Sixteen game a little slowly last year. The Hawks trailed Colorado 40-39 at halftime, and weren't playing their best on either end of the floor. Formann dominated the first half for the Buffaloes, scoring 19 points, including 4-of-7 shooting from deep.

Iowa went on a run early in the third quarter and a Caitlin Clark layup with 5:04 remaining gave the Hawks a 12-point lead. Iowa got the lead as high as 15 points in the third and took an 11-point lead to the fourth quarter.

Colorado battled back in the fourth quarter and cut the lead down to four with 1:49 to play. Iowa responded with a basket, and the Buffaloes weren't able to pull that close again. Iowa ultimately won 87-77.

Iowa did much better on Formann in the second half, as she only scored two more points. For the game, Vonleh had 14, Miller had 12, and Sherrod had 11 in addition to Formann's 21 points.

X-Factor

Iowa's three-point shooting. Iowa was one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country in the regular season, but the Hawks have been off so far in the NCAA Tournament. Against Holy Cross they were 10-of-32 (31.3%), and against West Virginia they were just 5-of-22 (22.7%), with Caitlin Clark producing all five made three-pointers.

Colorado's offense is better than West Virginia's offense. If the Hawks have another poor shooting night, they will be in trouble. If the Hawks shoot at or near their season average from three (37.6%), though, they have a very good chance of advancing to another Elite Eight.

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