Preview: Iowa WBB vs. Michigan State
WHO: Michigan State Spartans (11-2 overall, 1-1 Big Ten)
WHEN: 8:00 PM CT (Tuesday, January 2)
WHERE: Carver Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
TV: https://www.peacocktv.com/
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network
ONLINE: https://www.peacocktv.com/
MOBILE: https://www.peacocktv.com/
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN
Expectations weren't particularly high in Robyn Fralick's first season in charge at Michigan State. The Spartans were coming off a 16-14 season in which they missed the NCAA Tournament for a second consecutive year. Fralick came over after spending five seasons at Bowling Green. In that time, she took the Falcons from 9-21 to 31-7.
But Bowling Green also never made an NCAA Tournament in Fralick's tenure. And she didn't bring in a major transfer or big time recruit.
Like Iowa's last opponent, Minnesota, Michigan State is one of the few teams in the Big Ten exceeding its pre-season expectations. The Spartans are 11-2 overall and receiving votes in the AP poll. They are also ranked 14th in the NET, which has them in great position to return to the NCAA Tournament, and perhaps even to get a decent seed in the Tournament.
It's fair to wonder if that 14th place slot in the NET rankings is a little high, though. The Spartans' best wins so far are: 1) Penn State (ranked 33rd in NET), 2) Richmond (56), DePaul (89), and James Madison (100). The Penn State and DePaul wins came on the road, while the Richmond and James Madison wins came on neutral courts.
The Spartans have also lost two of their biggest games so far this year: on a neutral court against Creighton 83-69 and at home against Nebraska 80-74.
Stats used in this preview are from HerHoopStats.
Top Players
5'10" guard Moira Joiner is Michigan State's leading scorer. She is averaging 16.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, and 1.5 spg. Joiner is a great shooter from both 2-point range (60.0%) and 3-point range (41.4%). It's been a breakout season for Joiner, who is in her 5th season at Michigan State. She averaged 7.0 or fewer points per game her first three seasons, then averaged 10.1 ppg last year.
5'7" point guard DeeDee Hagemann averages 14.1 ppg and 4.3 apg. This season, she's shots 60.3 % on shots inside the arc and 51.1% from long range.
6'2" forward Julia Ayrault is Michigan State's best rebounder and best post defender. She's averages 14.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg, and 2.5 bpg this season, while shooting 60.4% on 2-point shots and 34.1% from 3-point range.
Play Style
Michigan State is one of the faster teams in the country. The Spartans average 76.9 possessions per 40, which ranks in the 91st percentile nationally.
Michigan State's fast pace has translated to points thus far. The Spartans average 92.5 points per game, which ranks 2nd nationally. The offense does come at the expense of defense, however. The Spartans surrender 65.1 ppg, which ranks 170th.
Offensively the Spartans are a great shooting team. Their 57.1% shooting on 2-point attempts ranks 6th nationally. Their 38.5% shooting from 3-point range is nearly as good and ranks 13th. The Spartans also shares the ball well, as their 21.2 assists per game ranks 4th nationally. Nor do they turn it over much -- their 11.1 turnovers per game ranks 7th.
Defensively, the Spartans like to force turnovers. Their 10.8 steals per game rank 31st nationally. Opponents this season have made 41.2% of their shots against them overall, though, which ranks just 204th.
X-Factor
Turnovers and threes. Last year, Iowa was in a dogfight with Michigan State, winning 84-81 in overtime. Iowa struggled so much in that game as a result of too many turnovers and poor three-point shooting. The Hawkeyes turned the ball over 20 times in the game and shot just 6 of 22 from three-point range.
On paper, this game looks like a shootout. Iowa is generally very comfortable in shootout games, but if the Hawkeyes turn the ball over too much or have an off night from long range, then the Hawks could be in trouble.