Preview: Iowa WBB vs. Northwestern

WHO: Northwestern Wildcats (6-9 overall, 0-5 Big Ten)
WHEN: Wednesday, January 11 at 6:30 PM CT
WHERE: Carver Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
TV: None
ONLINE: BTN Plus ($)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirus/XM 109 or 196

Every sports team has an opponent that it struggles with. For Iowa the past two seasons, that team has been Northwestern. That’s not to say that the Wildcats have been bad. Two years ago they were a 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament and were a few breaks away from making the Sweet 16. Last year, they went 17-12 and narrowly missed making the NCAA Tournament. Overall, though, Iowa was a better team than Northwestern the last two years. And yet Iowa’s record against the Wildcats in that stretch is just 2-3, with one of those wins coming in overtime.

A big reason for Iowa’s struggles is Northwestern’s Blizzard defense. A longer explanation of the Blizzard defense is here, but a short summary is that the Blizzard is a 1-1-3 matchup zone that Northwestern uses to trap offensive players and jump passing lanes. The intent is to turn teams over as much as possible. An added benefit is that it also slows teams down, because they spend a large portion of their possessions trying not to turn the ball over instead of actively looking to score.

Offensively, Northwestern generally likes to play at slow tempo, partly to compliment the defense. If Northwestern shoots from a half court set, on most possessions the Wildcats will have time to get back and set up the defense before their opponent gets the ball up. Another part is to limit possessions in a game. If Northwestern limits possessions, it increases the impact of the turnovers that its defense creates and puts additional pressure on its opponents to not turn the ball over. When the Wildcats are good, they're often able to throw their opponents into chaos.

Iowa prefers to play fast and push tempo. The Hawkeyes are also prone to turning the ball over in bunches. Sometimes those turnovers come when Iowa isn’t fully locked in, like the first quarter against Michigan. Sometimes Iowa just tries to make a pass into a window that's too tight.

Northwestern is usually good about slowing the game down and making Iowa play a style it doesn’t prefer. The Wildcats also bring out the worst in Iowa’s turnover tendencies, frustrating the Hawkeye guards into bad passes and taking advantage when Iowa loses focus.

The good news for Iowa is that this year’s Northwestern team isn’t close to as good as it has been in the last two seasons. The Wildcats are 6-9 overall so far and are 0-5 in conference. Their best player from the last two seasons—Veronica Burton—has moved on to the WNBA, and their talent level in general has dropped.

That said, Iowa can’t look past Northwestern, either. The Wildcats only lost by 11 at Michigan back in early December, and only lost by 6 at Illinois last week. If Iowa doesn’t come to this game focused, Northwestern could easily make things interesting.

Northwestern is led by 6’3’ sophomore forward Caileigh Walsh, who averages 12.0 ppg and 5.2 rpg. Walsh isn’t a particularly good three-point shooter (25%), but she shoots four of them per game. She shoots a much better 50.5% on 2-point attempts. It will be interesting to see how Coach Bluder chooses to defend Walsh. Monika Czinano is the only player in Iowa’s regular rotation as tall as Walsh, but Czinano isn’t exactly known for her defense and certainly isn’t a great perimeter defender.

Northwestern’s other best player is graduate student Sydney Wood, who averages 11.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.9 apg, and 2.5 steals per game. Wood is a much better three-point shooter at 34.5%, but she also shoots fewer than two three-pointers per game. Wood has also become Northwestern’s best defender with Burton’s graduation, so she'll be Northwestern's biggest threat to disrupt Iowa's offense.

No other Wildcat averages in double figures, but they are deep, with 10 players who have played in at least 13 games.

Limiting turnovers. In Iowa’s three losses to Northwestern the past two years, the Hawkeyes turned the ball over 18 times twice and 23 times in the third game. In its narrow overtime win over Northwestern, Iowa turned the ball over a staggering 25 times.

Conversely, in Iowa’s only comfortable win over Northwestern—in last year’s Big Ten Tournament—the Hawkeyes only turned it over 13 times. If Iowa takes care of the ball against Northwestern, the Hawkeyes should win relatively comfortably -- but If the turnovers mount, then things could get dicey.