WHO: Michigan Wolverines (4-5, 0-1 Big Ten)
WHEN: 3:30 PM CT (Sunday, December 10, 2023)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Bob Hansen)
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaHoops | @IowaonBTN
LINE: Iowa -3.5
KENPOM SPREAD: Iowa -4 (Iowa 84, Michigan 80; 63% chance of Iowa winning)
After back-to-back blowout losses on the road to Purdue and Iowa State earlier in the week, Iowa is back home to wrap up the week -- and try to end the losing skid. The 5-4 start to this season is Iowa's worst start to the season since the 2017-18 season, when Iowa started out 4-5 en route to a 14-19 overall mark.
On the bright side, Iowa's opponent on Sunday has had an even rockier start to the year -- Michigan is just 4-5 and enters this game on a 3-game losing streak. The Wolverines have played a challenging non-conference slate so far -- their non-conference strength of schedule is ranked 24th by KenPom -- with three of their four non-conference losses coming against KenPom Top 50 opponents (Memphis, Texas Tech, and Oregon). The outlier was a home loss to Long Beach State (KenPom #140).
Most recently, Michigan lost its Big Ten opener against Indiana on Tuesday, 78-75. Both Iowa and Michigan enter this game seeking a win to get their seasons back on track a bit.
PROJECTED MICHIGAN STARTING FIVE
G Dug McDaniel (5'11", 175, 19.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 4.9 apg, 1.2 spg, 47.3 FG%, 38.2 3FG%)
G Nimari Burnett (6'4", 200, 9.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 2.3 apg, 38.7 FG%, 37.2 3FG%)
F Terrance Williams (6'7", 225, 10.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.1 apg, 43.1 FG%, 38.6 3FG%)
F Olivier Nkamhoua (6'9", 235, 17.0 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, 56.5 FG%, 34.3 3FG%)
C Tarris Reed (6'10", 265, 6.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 61.0 FG%)
Michigan's roster suffered significant losses after last season, with Jett Howard and Kobe Bufkin, the Wolverines' second- and third-leading scorers last season (14.2 ppg and 14.0 ppg, respectively) heading to the NBA and Hunter Dickinson, last season's leading scorer (18.5 ppg) and rebounder (9.0 rpg) transferring to Kansas. In their absence, Michigan has relied on some underclassmen -- and hit the transfer portal for help of their own, adding Finn Olivier Nkamhoua from Tennessee and guard Nimari Burnett from Alabama.
The new-look Michigan team has put together a strong offense (the Wolverines rank 25th nationally in offensive efficiency), while struggling on the defensive end (132nd in defensive efficiency). In other words, they look a bit like the Hawkeyes -- Sunday's game may come down to which team's struggling defense is able to make a few more stops.
The main strength of the Michigan offense this season has been its shooting -- the Wolverines 18th in effective FG% (56.7), 18th in 2FG% (57.4), and 55th in 3FG% (37.0). Michigan also rebounds a healthy portion of its misses (35.6% offensive rebound rate, 40th nationally). Keeping Michigan's shooters from torching the nets at Carver-Hawkeye Arena will be top priority for Iowa's defense in this game, which means contesting shots and bringing a lot of energy and cohesion on that end of the floor -- something that was notably absent in the last two blowout losses.
The good news for Iowa is that after facing two Top 10 defenses in defensive efficiency earlier in the week, the Hawkeyes will face a much weaker defense on Sunday. The main strength of Michigan's defense is that it doesn't foul -- the Wolverines are 43rd in free throw rate.
The other aspects of defense have been a real struggle for this team, though. Opponents are making 48.0% of their 2-point attempts against Michigan -- and a staggering 39.2% of their 3-point tries. The Wolverines rank 349th in 3-point defense this season and if there's an opponent for Iowa to break out of its 3-point shooting funk again, it's probably this Michigan team.
The Wolverines also don't force many turnovers on defense (221st in turnover rate) or generate many steals (329th in steal rate). Michigan doesn't do a great job of keeping opponents off the glass, either, allowing opponents to rebound 31.4% of their misses (248th nationally). There should definitely be opportunities on offense for Iowa to exploit against this Michigan squad.
Point guard Dug McDaniel has taken on a leadership role with this team and what he lacks in size (5'11") he makes up for in quickness, which has enabled him to lead the team in scoring (19.4 ppg). He's also been Michigan's top threat from deep this season, attempting a team-high 55 triples and hitting on 38.2% of them.
Transfer addition Olivier Nkamhoua has been a big addition as well and helped Michigan fill the void left by Dickinson in the post; Nkamhoua leads the team in rebounds (6.8 rpg) and is second on the squad in scoring (17.0 ppg). He's been aces around the rim and inside the 3-point arc (64.6% on 2-point attempts), but he's got some range as well (34.5% on 29 3-point attempts this season).
Terrance Williams is the only other Michigan player scoring in double figures this season, with 10.8 ppg to go with 4.4 rpg. He's another willing -- and capable -- 3-point shooter, converting 17-of-44 tries (38.6%) this season. Guard Nimari Burnett is averaging just under 10.0 ppg (9.3 ppg) and while he's struggled on shots closer to the basket (just 13-of-32 on 2-point shots this year), he's 16-of-43 (37.2%) on 3-point shots.
Tarris Reed and Tray Jackson have mostly split time at center for Michigan this season, with Reed starting and playing 21.2 minutes a game and Jackson spelling him for 18.6 minutes per game. Their numbers have been pretty similar -- 6.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg for Reed; 6.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg for Jackson. Finally, Will Tschetter is a noteworthy bench contributor, averaging 9.1 ppg so far this season. He's also been scorching hot from the field this season -- 20-of-25 (80%) on 2-point tries and 11-of-15 (73%) on 3-point tries.
The key for Iowa in this game? Effort. Iowa's effort was decidedly lacking for long stretches against Purdue and (especially) Iowa State, and those low-energy performances led to extremely non-competitive games and lopsided losses. This is a game -- at home, against a defensively vulnerable opponent -- where Iowa needs to circle the wagons and bring a lot of energy to the game from the opening tip.
If Iowa can bring that energy (and find their shooting stroke, especially from long range), they should have a good opportunity to get a win against a beatable Michigan team. If this is another flat performance, though, it's probably a sign of deeper issues within this team -- and an indication that this could be a very long winter.
