WHO: #19 Missouri Tigers (9-3,5 5-3 SEC)

WHEN: 1:30 PM CT (Monday, December 30, 2024)

WHERE: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, TN)

TV: ESPN (Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb, Alyssa Lang)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Pat Angerer, Rob Brooks) The Varsity Network | ESPN Radio (Kevin Winter, Orlando Franklin) XM 372

MOBILE: espn.com/app

ONLINE: espn.com/watch

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @HawkeyeFootball | @ESPNCFB | @IowaonBTN

WEATHER: highs in the upper 50s, clear skies, winds around 12-14 mph

LINE: Missouri -2.5 (total of 40.5)

Despite sharing a border, Iowa and Missouri almost never play one another in football (or most other sports, for that matter). The last Iowa-Missouri game? Also a bowl game -- the 2010 Insight Bowl, which was a 27-24 Iowa win thanks to a pick-six from Micah Hyde.

The last Iowa-Missouri game before that? A 5-0 Missouri win... in 1910.

Despite their close proximity, Iowa and Missouri rarely square off on the same field. So don't miss Monday's black-and-gold blow-off -- it might be a very long time until the next one takes place.

Iowa and Missouri enter this game off moderately disappointing seasons for each team; Missouri entered 2024 with raised hopes after knocking off Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl last year, while Iowa entertained visions of an improved offense and a run at the College Football Playoff. Instead, the Hawkeyes and Tigers combined to lose seven games over the fall and finished well outside the Playoff pecking order.

Their reward instead is a Monday afternoon game in Nashville. Bowl games have always hinged on motivation -- who wants to be there more? -- and increasingly they hinge on who is actually there. The transfer portal and the increased prevalence of opt-outs for the NFL Draft have made roster composition for bowl games something of a guessing game. Indeed, Iowa will be without Big Ten Running Back of the Year Kaleb Johnson for this game, while Missouri will be without leading receiver Luther Burden III (among others).

While Missouri will be without one of its top receivers, the Tigers should have a significant edge at quarterback in this game due to the presence of Brady Cook behind center. Cook finished the regular season completing 183 of 289 passes (63.3%) for 2,248 yards (7.8 ypa) and finishing with nine touchdown passes against just two interceptions. Cook was better a year ago -- 244-of-369 (66.1%) for 3,317 yards (9.0 ypa), 21 TD, 6 INT -- but he was still very solid this year.

Cook is also capable of extending plays with his legs and scrambling as well; he finished this season with 169 yards and five touchdowns on 73 attempts (2.3 ypc) and had 319 yards and eight scores on 113 attempts (2.8 ypc) last season. Those 13 rushing touchdown really emphasize what a threat Cook is around the end zone; Iowa's defense will need to be particularly sharp when/if Cook leads the Tigers into the red zone.

While Burden won't play in the Music City Bowl, Cook's other top target, Theo Wease, Jr., is expected to play. Wease was second to Burden in receptions (55 to 61) and touchdowns (three to six), but he led the team in receiving yards (809). His 14.7 ypc average marks him as a clear big play threat. Mookie Cooper (12 receptions, 235 yards, 0 TD, 19.6 ypc) is another big play threat at receiver, while Marquis Johnson (18 receptions, 230 yards, 0 TD) is likely to see a bigger workload with Burden out.

Missouri scored just 12 touchdowns through the air in 2024, but the Tigers were much more prolific on the ground, with 25 rushing scores. Nate Noel led the team in rushing with 804 yards on 157 carries (5.1 ypc), but had just three scores himself. Marcus Carroll was second to Noel in carries (134) and yards (578), but he was the preferred option near the goal line, with a team-high 12 rushing touchdowns. Four players had three or more rushing scores for Missouri in 2024, though, so there are many weapons the Tigers can turn to in the backfield.

The Tigers ranked seventh in the SEC in sacks allowed (24) and were fourth in third-down conversion rate (46.7%). Missouri has also been hyper-efficient in the red zone, ranking third in the league in red zone conversions at 91.5%. Only four of the Tigers' 47 trips to the red zone didn't result in points this season. They did settle for field goals fairly often, though; only 59.6% of Missouri's red zone scores were touchdowns (12th in the SEC).

One other key opt-out for Missouri in the Music City Bowl: starting right tackle Armand Membou. He was not just the highest-ranked player on Missouri's offensive line (per Pro Football Focus), he was their highest-ranked offensive player, period. His absence should leave a sizable hole for Missouri to try and fill -- and a clear opportunity for Iowa's pass rush.

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The Tigers ranked sixth in the SEC this year in scoring defense, allowing 20.1 ppg. One item of note? The Tigers are 0-3 this year when allowing 30+ ppg -- and 9-0 when holding teams under 30+ ppg. Two of those three defeats -- at Texas A&M and at Alabama -- were also by 30+ points.

Missouri's defense was especially strong against the pass; the Tigers ranked third in the SEC in pass defense and allowed just 185.5 ypg through the air. Opposing quarterbacks completed just 59.9% of their passes against Missouri (for 7.3 ypa) for 13 touchdowns and six interceptions.

The Tigers were good-not-great against the run, finishing ninth in the league and allowing 133.8 ypg on the ground. Opponents averaged 4.0 ypc against Missouri and scored 14 rushing touchdowns. Overall, Missouri ranked sixth in total defense (319.3 ypg) and 10th in yards per play allowed (5.44).

One area where Missouri's defense was legitimately excellent? Third-down conversions. The Tigers allowed opponents to convert third downs just 28.8% of the time this season, best in the SEC. Missouri was 12th in red zone defense, allowing opponents to score 81.8% of the time (27 of 33 attempts). Opponents scored touchdowns on just 54.6% (18 of 33) red zone appearances.

Linebackers Corey Flagg, Jr. and Triston Newson led Missouri in tackles this season, with 76 and 64, respectively. Defensive end Johnny Walker, Jr. led the team in tackles for loss (10.5) and sacks (7.5); no other player had more than 5.5 TFL or 3.0 sacks this season. The Tigers have forced just six interceptions this season, but defensive back Dreyden Norwood has one-third of those picks (2). Safety Daylan Carnell leads the team in pass breakups with seven.

If there's an area of the game here Iowa may have an advantage, it's special teams. Missouri ranked 14th in the SEC in punting, with punter Luke Bauer averaging 41.5 yards per kick this season. Four his 44 punts went for touchbacks this season and only 12 were downed inside the 20.

Missouri was also 14th in the league in field goal kicking this season, with placekicker Blake Craig going just 22 of 32 (68.8%) on field goal attempts this season. He's converted 33 of 34 extra point efforts.

The Tigers also had the fewest punt return attempts of any team in the SEC (8 for 37 yards), though they were slightly more prolific on kick returns (21 returns for 427 yards, 20.3 yards per return). They have been effective at limiting opponent returns, though -- opponents have taken back just 10 punts for 66 yards and 13 kickoffs for 259 yards.

On paper, this doesn't look like the most favorable matchup for Iowa. The way to attack Missouri on defense is via the ground game and while Iowa had the Big Ten's best rushing attack this season, it enters this game without the player who made that happen in Kaleb Johnson. Johnson was the engine behind Iowa's potent ground game this season, capable of breaking off big plays at a moment's notice (see: Iowa vs Nebraska).

Without Johnson, the running game load is going to fall on Kamari Moulton and Jaz Patterson. Moulton and Patterson are capable backs, but they haven't shown the consistency or explosiveness of Johnson. Missouri also figures to load up the box to stifle Iowa's running game; in order to open running lanes, the Hawkeyes will need Brendan Sullivan to make plays in the passing game.

Relying on the passing game has been a dicey proposition for Iowa over the past few seasons and while the running game portion of the offense was dramatically improved, the passing game continued to languish in 2024. Iowa finished ahead of only the three service academies in passing yards per game this year (131.7 ypg). To beat Missouri, Iowa is going to need more than that from the passing game. Sullivan and his receiving targets are going to have to make catches and move the chains to give Iowa a shot in this game.

And yet... bowl games have generally gone well for Iowa in recent years. The Hawkeyes had won four of five bowl games before last year's 35-0 wipeout against Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl. Kirk Ferentz has a knack for motivating players for one last performance. This year's team could take that "one last performance" idea to another level, with multiple sixth-year seniors wrapping up their (extended) Hawkeye careers on Monday.

The pick here is for those seniors -- including Jay Higgins, Nick Jackson, Quinn Schulte, Luke Lachey, Mason Richman, Connor Colby, among others -- to grind out one more gritty victory. For that to happen, it will probably need to be an ugly, low-scoring game... but few teams are better than the Hawkeyes at turning games like that into victories.

Iowa 17, Missouri 14