Published Feb 10, 2023
Preview: No. 2 Iowa vs No. 9 Michigan
Ross Binder  •  Hawkeye Beacon
Managing Editor

WHO: #9 Michigan Wolverines (9-3, 4-2 Big Ten)
WHEN: 8:00 PM CT (Friday, February 10)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN (Shane Sparks and Jim Gibbons)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Steven Grace and Mark Ironside) | AM 800 KXIC | YouTube
MOBILE: www.foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @Hawks_Wrestling | @IowaonBTN

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PROJECTED LINEUPS

#2 Iowa vs #9 Michigan
WEIGHTIOWAvsMICHIGAN

125

#1 Spencer Lee (RS SR, 12-0)

vs

#18 Jack Medley (GR, 17-7)

133

#16 Brody Teske (JR, 5-1)

vs

#12 Dylan Ragusin (RS SO, 12-6)

141

#2 Real Woods (SR, 11-0)

vs

#27 Cole Mattin (RS JR, 12-6) OR Pat Nolan (RS JR, 7-4)

149

#6 Max Murin (RS SR, 15-3)

vs

#22 Chance Lamer (RS FR, 10-3) OR Fidel Mayora (RS SO, 2-3)

157

#14 Cobe Siebrecht (JR, 9-3)

vs

#9 Will Lewan (RS SR, 14-4)

165

#7 Patrick Kennedy SO, 14-2)

vs

#4 Cameron Amine (RS JR, 9-2) OR Alex Wesselman (RS FR, 0-3)

174

#16 Nelson Brands (SR, 4-4)

vs

#28 Max Maylor (RS SR, 14-6)

184

Drake Rhodes (FR, 1-3)

vs

#8 Matt Finesilver (GR, 17-5)

197

#12 Jacob Warner (SR, 11-4)

vs

Brendin Yatooma (RS SO, 5-9)

285

#3 Tony Cassioppi (SR, 16-1)

vs

#1 Mason Parris (SR, 22-0)

KEY MATCHES

125: #1 Spencer Lee (RS SR, 12-0) vs #18 Jack Medley (GR, 17-7)

Lee and Medley have met twice before, though not since 2020. Medley is one of the few college opponents to hold Lee to a regular decision in a defeat (Lee beat him 8-1 at a dual meet in 2020)... though Lee also beat him via 19-3 technical fall a month later at the Big Ten Tournament. Really, the reason this match is important is that it's Spencer Lee's second-to-last match for Iowa at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. There are precious few opportunities remaining to see Lee do his thing in black and gold, and they're all worth celebrating.

133: #16 Brody Teske (JR, 5-1) vs #12 Dylan Ragusin (RS SO, 12-6)

Only half the matches in this dual are set to feature two wrestlers ranked in the Top 20 at their respective weights, and this match is one of them. This match is a must-win for Michigan if the Wolverines want to pull off an upset in the dual. It also offers a good test for Teske just a few weeks away from the Big Ten Tournament. 133 is a pretty open weight in the Big Ten outside of Roman Bravo-Young, but Ragusin is the type of wrestler Teske will need to be able to beat in order to finish higher on the podium.

157: #14 Cobe Siebrecht (JR, 9-3) vs #9 Will Lewan (RS SR, 14-4)

Lewan was an All-American last season, and while his results have slipped a little this year, they haven't gotten too much worse -- two of his losses came in sudden victory and another was a result of an injury default. He's going to be a very tough out for Siebrecht, as well as the type of guy Siebrecht will likely need to beat in March to finish on the podium. This match is a great opportunity to see how close (or far) the Iowa junior is from being able to earn All-America honors himself.

165: #7 Patrick Kennedy SO, 14-2) vs #4 Cameron Amine (RS JR, 9-2)

This match has a lot of intrigue if it's Kennedy vs. Amine -- and absolutely none if Amine doesn't wrestle. If it's Kennedy and Amine though, it's one of two Top-10 clashes in the dual and a chance for Kennedy to pit himself against a two-time All-American and the possible Big Ten favorite at this weight. Kennedy's best win this season has been over Penn State freshman Alex Facundo; proving that he can beat a battle-tested opponent like Amine would firmly put him in the mix for Big Ten title and All-America honors. Common opponents aren't much help with this one, either -- Kennedy edged Facundo, who handed Amine a narrow defeat, but Amine also beat Wisconsin's Dean Hamiti, who beat Kennedy.

285: #3 Tony Cassioppi (SR, 16-1) vs #1 Mason Parris (SR, 22-0)

And here's the other Top 10 clash in the dual -- and the runaway pick for match of the night. This is a throwdown between #1 and #3 and a potential preview of the Big Ten and NCAA finals (if Cassioppi can get by Penn State's Greg Kerkvliet in potential rematches). Cassioppi hasn't fared well in his past matches with Parris -- he was pinned in their first two encounters (the second time in just 0:58) and he dropped an 11-5 decision in their most recent match, at last year's NCAA Tournament. Parris was one of two heavyweight stars that Cassioppi has struggled with during his career; Gable Steveson, the other, has departed the college ranks. The path to the top of the heavyweight ranks goes through Parris right now. If nothing else, this match should be an excellent opportunity to see if Cassioppi has been able to narrow the gap on Parris; he was not close to beating (or scoring on) Parris in their previous encounters.

FINAL THOUGHTS

On one hand, Iowa is probably only favorites in five matches in this dual. On the other hand, they're strong favorites in most of those matches -- there's real bonus point potential at 125, 141, 149, and perhaps even 174 or 197 if Brands or Warner are able to get offense flowing early in their bouts. Three matches (133, 157, 165) look like toss-ups, or slight leans to Michigan. 184, where Iowa may be again sending out Drake Rhodes (a 165er wrestling up two weights), looks like a real shot at bonus points for Michigan, though Parris' pinning history against Cassioppi can't be ignored, either. 285 is close on paper, but Parris' history with Cassioppi makes him a solid favorite in that match.

If the close matches go Michigan's way and they're able to secure bonus points at a few weights -- and limit Iowa's ability to do the same -- this is a dual meet that could be close heading into the final weights and potentially even decided by heavyweight. There's also a scenario where Iowa starts fast and builds a big enough lead that the second half of the dual is more of a formality, especially if Iowa is able to win a toss-up match or two.

One of the most pressing questions for Iowa in this dual concerns the upper weights, though -- will there be signs of progress (and positive results) at those weights? 174, 184, 197, and 285 have combined to go 1-11 over the last three dual meets, which is an alarming trend, even if several of those defeats came from backups. The odds seem stacked against Rhodes at 184 and Cassioppi has an enormous challenge at 285, but Brands and Warner should be favored at 174 and 197. Both men could really use a win and a solid performance (especially Warner) with the postseason looming in just a few weeks.