WHO: #1 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-0, 3-0 Big Ten)
WHEN: 6:00 PM CT (Friday, January 31, 2025)
WHERE: Bryce Jordan Center (State College, PA)
TV: BTN (Shane Sparks and Jim Gibbons)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Steven Grace, Mark Ironside
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @Hawks_Wrestling | @IowaonBTN
#2 Iowa wrestling has been off to a strong start this season -- the Hawkeyes are 9-0 on the season and 3-0 in Big Ten play, including a very solid 24-13 win over #4 Ohio State last weekend. On an individual basis, the Hawkeyes have a strong team as well, with ranked wrestlers at nine weights (per InterMat) or ten weights (per Flowrestling). To boot, the Hawkeyes have seven wrestlers ranked in the top-7 at their respective weights, plus another wrestler ranked just outside the top-10 (Ben Kueter, #11 at 285).
On paper, this looks like a stronger team than some of the squads that the Hawkeyes have fielded in recent years, despite some uncommon holes at weights that had been sources of immense strength (125, 141). Last year, the Hawkeyes had just four All-Americans and scored only 67 points at the NCAA Tournament. This year, the Hawkeyes have a realistic shot at 7-8 All-Americans and are projected to score over 100 points at the NCAA Tournament if they wrestle to their current rankings.
That sounds like a team that should be favored against almost any opponent that they see on the other side of the mat. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, #1 Penn State is not just "any opponent" -- even by the Nittany Lions' own extremely high recent standards, this year's PSU team is absolutely loaded.
There simply isn't an obvious weakness in this PSU lineup -- they have a wrestler ranked in the top-7 at all 10 weights. Six of their ranked wrestlers are ranked third or better and two others are ranked fourth. Their lowest-ranked wrestlers are still ranked seventh at their respective weights.
Finding a path to victory for Iowa in this dual meet is... difficult. There simply aren't many weights where Iowa is a clear favorite. Nor are there many weights where an upset seems probable, or that bonus points are a strong possibility for the Hawkeyes. Meanwhile, there are also a few weights where Iowa looks clearly outgunned and/or where the Iowa wrestler has had a history of struggling against their PSU opponent.
If Iowa is going to make the dual meet competitive -- and have the foundation of a chance to mount an upset -- it would need to begin with Iowa's best wrestlers winning their matches. That would involve wins in these bouts:
133: #3 Drake Ayala vs #7 Braeden Davis
149: #2 Kyle Parco vs #4 Shayne Van Ness
157: #1 Jacori Teemer vs #3 Tyler Kasak
165: #2 Michael Caliendo vs #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink
197: #1 Stephen Buchanan vs #4 Josh Barr
Ayala sat out last week's dual against Ohio State, but is expected to be back in action this week. He owns a 4-2 win over Davis from last year's dual, when both wrestlers were at 125 lbs. Repeating that performance is critical for Iowa's hopes in the dual.
149 and 165 highlight the extent of the challenge Iowa faces in this dual. Parco and Caliendo are ranked second at their respective weights and would be favored to beat nearly any other wrestler at those weights -- but they haven't had much success against these opponents in the past. Van Ness owns a 7-2 win over Parco from 2023 (as well as a 5-1 win over Parco at the 2023 All-Star Classic exhibition event). The matches have been close, but Parco hasn't been able to get the decisive takedown against Van Ness yet.
At 165, Caliendo has been tremendous for Iowa this season -- 13-0 overall with bonus points in almost 77% of those victories, including six technical falls. Mesenbrink is also 13-0 -- with bonus points in all of those wins, including 11 technical falls. He dominated all three bouts with Caliendo last year as well, winning 12-6 in the dual, 23-7 at the Big Ten Tournament, and 17-9 at the NCAA Tournament. Caliendo might well be the second-best wrestler in the country at 165 -- but the gap between him and the top-ranked Mesenbrink has looked like a chasm to this point.
157 and 197 are other key weights for Iowa in this dual. Those weights feature two of Iowa's best pound-for-pound wrestlers in Jacori Teemer (#1 at 157) and Stephen Buchanan (#1 at 197). Getting wins from both of them is essential for Iowa's upset hopes. Teemer made his return from a two-month injury absence last week against Ohio State and while he looked solid, he'll likely need to be in top form to hold off #3 Tyler Kasak, a 3rd-place finisher at the NCAA Tournament a year ago and a wrestler with a high pace and some powerful attacks.
Buchanan has been a bulldozer this season, going 13-0 with bonus points in 11 of those wins, including six technical falls. He's showed an impressive array of attacks from neutral and on the mat, overwhelming nearly every foe he's faced. #4 Josh Barr is the latest young gun to enter the PSU lineup and make a splash; after going 14-0 during his redshirt year last season, he's 12-0 this season with bonus points in 11 of those 12 wins. This is a classic "grizzled veteran vs brash newcomer" match; Iowa needs to hope that experience carries the day.
Wins at the other five weights look harder to come by for Iowa. Iowa's two weakest weights are 125 and 141. Joey Cruz has been in strong form of late and has notched a few upsets over higher-ranked opponents -- but highly-touted true freshman Luke Lilledahl (11-1, bonus points in 50% of his wins) looks like a steep challenge for Cruz. Cruz's best bet is to get an early score and force Lilledahl to try and come from behind.
141 is an even bigger ask for Iowa -- the Hawkeyes have three listed options at the weight in Ryder Block (2-4), Jace Rhodes (5-2), and Cullan Schriever (3-5), but none appear to have the firepower to contend with PSU's Beau Bartlett, who is 12-0 on the season and a two-time All-American. Minimizing the damage and avoiding as many bonus points as possible is probably the most realistic goal for Iowa here.
That leaves 174, 184, and 285. #6 Patrick Kennedy has been rock solid at 174 lbs this year (8-1, with six bonus point wins), but he has a mammoth challenge in #2 Levi Haines, who's 11-1 (nine bonus point wins), with his only loss coming against top-ranked Keegan O'Toole. Haines finished second at 157 in 2023 and won a national title at that weight last year; he's hit the ground running at his new weight this year as well. Winning this match will likely require Kennedy to score multiple takedowns, which could be a tough ask.
There's minor intrigue at 184 in terms of who gets the start for Iowa -- #5 Gabe Arnold or superstar true freshman Angelo Ferrari. Arnold is 11-1 on the season. with his only loss a medical forfeit against Ferrari at the Soldier Salute event last month. Ferrari has mowed through his competition, with a 9-0 record and a 78% bonus rate. But #1 Carter Starocci is likely in a class of his own -- he's a four-time NCAA champion (all at 174 lbs), vying to become the first-ever five-time NCAA champion. He's 12-0 this year -- with bonus points in all of those wins, including five pins and four technical falls.
Finally, the question at 285 is primarily "how much has #11 Ben Kueter improved in a year?" Kueter and #2 Greg Kerkvliet wrestled a year ago and Kervliet won easily, cruising to a 9-1 major decision victory. Kueter has gotten better since then and picked up the biggest win of his Iowa career last week in a 5-4 win over #6 Nick Feldman. How much has Kueter narrowed the gap on Kerkvliet? Can he finish any of his own attacks? How well can he slow down Kerkvliet's attacks?
Penn State has won three straight meetings in this series and is heavily favored to make it four in a row again this year. Iowa last knocked off Penn State with a 19-17 win in 2020. Even though this is a #1 vs #2 matchup, a win for the second-ranked Hawkeyes would be a pretty substantial upset. Securing that upset win will take wins from Iowa's best wrestlers, as well as a few upsets -- and possibly some surprise bonus points as well. Getting all of that to line up in Iowa's favor won't be easy (and is certainly not probable), but if it does, it will result in one of the best nights for Iowa wrestling in a very long time.
