WHO: #15 seed Southeastern Louisiana (21-9 overall, 14-4 in Southland)
WHEN: Friday, March 17 at approximately 3 PM CT
WHERE: Carver Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, Iowa)
TV: ESPN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirius/XM 109 or 196

When the NCAA Tournament bracket is released, it’s always fun to look ahead. How might Iowa matchup with a very slow and defensive team like Duke in the Sweet 16? Can Iowa handle stars like Cameron Brink and Haley Jones if the Hawkeyes play Stanford in the Elite Eight?

But before the Hawkeyes can get to those potential matchups, they have to take care of business in the first two rounds at home. That starts with 15 seed Southeastern Louisiana.

It’s fun to dream about Iowa going on a run and turning this into the best season in program history. For Southeastern Louisiana, though, it already is the best season in program history. The Lions won a share of the Southland regular season title, then won their conference tournament to advance to the NCAA Tournament for the first time. The Lions are already playing with house money. An upset over Iowa in Carver would help the players and coaches leave their market on basketball history, and could potentially change the program for the better.

The Lions also have reason to believe they can compete with Iowa. This year, they have faced three Power 5 opponents who made the NCAA Tournament. They were blown out 99-62 by 2 seed Utah, but played 10 seed Alabama and 3 seed LSU much closer.

Against the Crimson Tide, Southeastern Louisiana trailed 30-18 at halftime, then outplayed the Tide in the second half. The Alabama lead was as small as six points with 2:31 to play before Alabama pulled away late to win 55-45.

Against LSU, the Lions actually led 18-15 after the first quarter. LSU went on a big run in the second quarter and led 37-26 at halftime, but again Southeastern Louisiana outplayed its opponent in the second half. LSU briefly held a 21-point advantage in the 3rd quarter, but the Lions came roaring back, cutting that deficit the way to four points with 5:21 to go in the game. LSU ultimately won 63-55, but it was far from easy.

Those two games mean that Southeastern Louisiana won’t be intimidated by Iowa. They won’t roll over and accept defeat the first time Iowa builds a decent lead. We shouldn’t be surprised if the game is closer than we might expect early on, or if the Lions make a run after Iowa builds a lead.

Tempo will likely play a big role in this game. The Lions play at a very slow pace (67 possessions per game) while Iowa likes to play much faster (76.6 possessions per game). You can see the impact of tempo in the Lions’ results against P5 opponents.

Utah–like Iowa–likes to play fast. The Utes were able to speed up play against Southeastern Louisiana and because of that they scored early and often and ran away with the victory. The Alabama and LSU games were played at a slower pace and that helped Southeastern Louisiana stay in the game and make things competitive.

Like many slower-paced teams, the Lions are better on defense than offense. Defensively, they rank 28th in opponent’s points per 100 possessions, compared to 181st in points per 100 possessions offensively.

Defensively, the Lions have solid but unspectacular steal and block rates. They excel at making their opponents shoot poorly on two-point attempts (40.8%), but also allow opponents to shoot well from three (34.8%).

Offensively, the Lions don’t shoot particularly well from anywhere, but are extremely poor from the line. They also shoot threes at one of the lowest rates in the country. And the Lions' offensive rebounding rate ranks just 253rd nationally.

Because the Lions play at such a slow tempo, they don’t have a lot of big scorers. Junior guard Hailey Giaratano leads the team, averaging 12.6 ppg and 4.0 rpg. She shoots 40.9% from two and 36.6% from three.

Junior guard Alexis Horne is second on the team averaging 12.5 ppg. She shoots 42.9% from two and just 24.6% from three. Several times this year, Iowa has played off of guards who shoot poorly from three, hoping to give them shots they are likely to miss while giving the defender an advantage to cut off driving opportunities. Iowa might deploy that strategy again against Horne.

Senior forward Natalie Kelly is the team’s best rebounder at 8.6 rpg, but she isn’t much of a scorer, averaging just 4.5 ppg.

Control tempo. We know the Lions will try to slow things down. Against Alabama and LSU they succeeded in that and had two chances to pull off a road upset.

Against Utah, they didn’t slow things down and the game was basically over by halftime. If Iowa wants a comfortable first round victory, the Hawkeyes need to control the tempo and turn this into a fast-paced game.

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