WHO: Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten)
WHEN: 2:33 PM CT (Saturday, October 21, 2023)
WHERE: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)
TV: NBC (Paul Burmeister, Anthony Herron, Zora Stephenson)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Ed Podolak, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 85
MOBILE: Peacock ($)
ONLINE: Peacock ($)
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @HawkeyeFootball | @NBCSports | @IowaonBTN
WEATHER: temps in the 60s, partly cloudy, 10-12 mph winds
LINE: Iowa -3.5 (total of 30.5)

Iowa goes for its seventh win in eight weeks -- and ninth-straight win over Minnesota in Saturday's Battle for Floyd of Rosedale. Iowa enters the game on the back of an emotionally charged win over Wisconsin, while Minnesota enters off a bye -- and a 52-10 drubbing at the hands of Michigan before that bye. Iowa has had Minnesota's number for several years now, even as the stats in the matchup have gotten increasingly lopsided in favor of the Gophers.

Offensively, Minnesota and Iowa are almost like looking in a mirror in several aspects. Minnesota ranks 10th in the Big Ten and 111th nationally in scoring offense (21.7 ppg), while Iowa ranks 11th in the Big Ten and 115th nationally (20.9 ppg). They're equally inept at passing the football too -- Minnesota ranks 13th in the Big Ten (132.8 ypg) and 130th nationally, while Iowa ranks 14th in the Big Ten (116.6 ypg) and 131st nationally.

Sophomore Athan Kaliakmanis has taken over as the full-time starter at QB, a role he also filled at the end of last season when former starter Tanner Morgan was injured. Kaliakmanis hasn't been particularly effective in 2023, going 76/136 (55.9%) for 797 yards (5.9 ypa), six touchdowns, and six interceptions.

He has had a few efficient outings this season, though -- 10/15 for 117 yards against Eastern Michigan, 14/19 for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns against Northwestern, and 12/14 for 146 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception against Louisiana. The Gophers have also been effective at protecting him -- Minnesota has allowed just eight sacks this year, 4th-best in the Big Ten.

Senior WR Daniel Jackson has been Kaliakmanis' favorite target by far this season, leading the Gophers in receptions (22), yards (286), and touchdowns (5). Senior WR Corey Crooms Jr. has also been a popular target, with 19 receptions for 227 yards, although he has yet to find the end zone. Tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford has the third-most receptions on the team (13), but has only 66 receiving yards on the season.

One reason the Minnesota passing game has been so unremarkable is that the Gopher running game has been strong this year. Minnesota ranks 5th in the Big Ten in rushing (180.5 ypg) and 6th in yards per carry (4.4 ypc). Most of that success has come from superstar freshman RB Darius Taylor. Taylor has played roughly three full games for Minnesota this season and picked up 532 yards and four touchdowns on 6.1 yards per carry. He's missed the last two games with a leg injury and his status for the Iowa game is uncertain, but if he's available, that would be a huge boost for the Gopher offense.

Minnesota does have three other running backs with over 100 yards rushing on the season, led by SR Sean Tyler with 199 yards on 4.3 yards per carry. FR Zach Evans has 130 yards and a touchdown on 4.8 yards per carry, while SR Bryce Williams has 123 yards and a touchdown on 3.4 yards per carry.

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The Minnesota defense has struggled quite a bit this season -- the Gophers rank 10th in the Big Ten and 77th nationally in scoring defense (26.7 ppg). Minnesota is also 11th in the Big Ten in total defense (373.2 ypg) and 14th in the league in yards per play (6.2 ypp).

To an extent, Minnesota's defensive shortcomings have been the result of several games against potent offenses. The Gophers have played opponents that currently rank 10th (Michigan), 15th (North Carolina), and 24th (Louisiana) nationally in scoring offense. Those three teams all gained 400+ yards and scored 30+ points against Minnesota, while averaging 6.7 yards per play or better.

In comparison, Minnesota's other three opponents this season rank north of 100 in scoring offense -- Nebraska (122), Eastern Michigan (122), and Northwestern (108). Minnesota allowed 16 total points to Nebraska and EMU and held them both under 300 yards of offense. (They had less success against Northwestern, allowing 37 points and almost 500 yards to the Wildcats.)

Minnesota's pass defense has been weak this season, ranking 12th in the Big Ten. The Gophers have allowed 235.3 yards per game through the air and they rank last in the Big Ten in completion percentage allowed (63.5%), yards per attempt (7.9), and opponent QB rating (139.7). The run defense has struggled as well, ranking 10th in the Big Ten, while allowing 137.8 yards per game. Their average of 4.47 yards per carry allowed ranks 13th.

The Gophers rank 10th in the Big Ten this season with 11.0 sacks, led by DL Danny Striggow with 3.0 sacks. DL Kyler Baugh is second on the team with 2.5 sacks. They have struggled to generate negative plays on defense overall -- their 25.0 tackles for loss on the season ranks last in the Big Ten. Baugh leads the team in tackles for loss, with 4.5, followed by Striggow and freshman LB Maverick Baranowski with 4.0. Baranowski also leads the team in overall tackles, with 42.

Minnesota is tied for 3rd in the Big Ten in interceptions this season, with eight on the season. SR DB Tyler Nubin leads the team with three picks, while SR DB Jack Henderson has two interceptions as well.

Kickoff returns seem unlikely to play a big factor in this game. For one, it's not clear that either team will score enough to have many kickoff opportunities. But there probably won't be many return opportunities on any of those kickoffs, as Minnesota and Iowa rank 1-2 in kickoff distance and touchback percentage in the Big Ten. The Gophers have averaged 64.6 yards per kickoff with touchbacks on 24/28 kickoffs, while Iowa has averaged 64.4 yards per kickoff with touchbacks on 28/34 kickoffs.

Minnesota K Dragan Kesich has also been very effective on field goals this season, converting 10/11 field goal opportunities. He's gone 4/5 from 40+ yards this season, including 2/3 from 50+ yards. Iowa K Drew Stevens has gone 12/15 on field goal tries this season, including 4/7 from 40+ yards. He did convert both field goal tries last week against Wisconsin.

While the presence of Tory Taylor (the Big Ten's leading punter) and Cooper DeJean (the Big Ten's leading punt returner) gives Iowa an edge in the punt game, Minnesota is pretty strong in that department as well. The Gophers rank 4th in the Big Ten in punting (43.3 yards per kick) and 3rd in the league in opponent punt returns. Opponents have returned just four kicks for a total of 15 yards this season.

Iowa has pulled some Houdini acts against Minnesota in recent seasons to escape with victories in games where the Hawkeyes were outplayed in some aspects. This year's Minnesota team doesn't seem to have an offense strong enough to make things too lopsided, so this game figures to be more evenly-matched defensive struggle.

On the other side of the ball, Minnesota has some clear deficiencies on defense, especially against the past. But it doesn't appear that Iowa has the weapons (or the ability) to effectively exploit those weaknesses, unless Deacon Hill and the Iowa passing game can take a huge leap forward this week.

But this feels like a game where both teams are going to prioritize running the ball, punting if (when) necessary, and avoiding turnovers. The team that blinks first -- and makes a costly mistake -- is probably the one who won't be going home with Floyd of Rosedale at the end of the game.

Kirk Ferentz has been winning games like that for well over two decades now, especially against Minnesota. Here's betting he adds one more to his collection on Saturday, as the defense forces a pair of turnovers and Kaleb Johnson and Leshon Williams tag team for 150 yards and a touchdown to lead Iowa to victory.

Iowa 17, Minnesota 10