WHO: #7 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0)
WHEN: 6:40 PM CT (Saturday, September 23, 2023)
WHERE: Beaver Stadium (University Park, PA)
TV: CBS (Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, Jenny Dell)
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Ed Podolak, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 84
MOBILE: Paramount Plus ($)
ONLINE: Paramount Plus ($)
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @HawkeyeFootball | @CBSSportsCFB | @IowaonBTN
WEATHER: temps in the 40s or low 50s; rain likely
LINE: Penn State -15
SP+: Penn State -12

It gets no bigger for #24 Iowa than this week's game at #7 Penn State, at least during the regular season. Neither Michigan nor Ohio State are on this year's schedule and several Big Ten West appear to be in various stages of rebuilding in the division's final year of existence. There will be no bigger stage for Iowa football this fall, unless they can make it to Indianapolis and the Big Ten Championship Game in December.

Did you remember that Iowa enters this game on a two-game winning streak against Penn State? It's true -- after losing six in a row to the Nittany Lions between 2011 and 2019, Iowa has prevailed in the last two meetings (2020 and 2021). Iowa's current success against Penn State began in Happy Valley in 2020 -- but outside of the zip code for Beaver Stadium, those two games won't have much in common.

Not only has the personnel of those two teams turned over significantly since then, that was the always-weird COVID year; Iowa knocked off Penn State in front of a small handful of friends and family in the stands. In contrast, on Saturday night, over 100,000 Penn State fans will fill up Beaver Stadium for a "Whiteout" game.

Over 100,000 Penn State fans who have been nursing a grudge against Iowa for the last two years, after the Nittany Lions lost a contentious and somewhat controversial game in Iowa City. This figures to be the most hostile environment Iowa has played in for a while (not that Ames was any picnic two weeks ago, of course). Will that be a factor for an Iowa team that's relying on a lot of younger or less-experienced players at the offensive skill positions? We'll find out on Saturday night.

If history really does repeat itself, though, then circumstances have put the Hawkeyes in a position to create some very satisfying deja vu for Iowa fans. Saturday's game will be nearly 14 years to the day since another Iowa team went into Happy Valley as a significant underdog against a Top 10-ranked Penn State team. Penn State fans were hungry for revenge in that game as well, following an Iowa upset win in 2008.

But on a cool, rainy evening, Iowa used smothering defense and a game-breaking special teams play to deny those 100,000 Penn State fans a shot at revenge. It's supposed to be cool and rainy in Happy Valley on Saturday night. The Iowa defense is certainly capable of putting the clamps on opponents. And Iowa's special teams can certainly change the course of a game with with a big play. The odds are against Iowa, but stranger things have happened -- especially in the Iowa-Penn State series.

Don't miss out on any of our exclusive football, basketball, and recruiting coverage. Sign up with Go Iowa Awesome here.

Not all sides of the ball are evenly matched in this game, but this showdown figures to be the true heavyweight battle of the evening. On one side you've got the Penn State offense, ranked 14th nationally in scoring offense (43.7 ppg), 26th in total offense (467.3 ypg), and 23rd in rushing offense (208.3 ypg). Even in a down effort against Illinois last week, PSU still tallied almost 400 yards of total offense (383), while averaging almost five yards per play (4.97), and scoring 30 points.

On the other side you've got the Iowa defense, ranked 18th in scoring defense (12.3 ppg) and 32nd in total defense (286.0 ypg). Those numbers are a step behind the stifling defenses the Hawkeyes have had the past two seasons, but a lot of the yardage and points that Iowa conceded in the first two weeks of the season came late in the fourth quarter and against second-team defenders. Iowa's starters conceded 10 points and almost 200 yards early in the game last week, but they allowed virtually nothing the rest of the way.

Penn State's running game has looked good at times this season, though so far over half of its output (315 yards) has been against lesser competition (Delaware). Against power conference defenses, PSU has amassed 146 (against West Virginia) and 164 (against Illinois) yards on the ground. The Nittany Lions have a two-headed running back attack with a pair of sophomore rushers, Kaytron Allen (5'11", 222) and Nicholas Singleton (6'0", 222). Allen leads the team with 208 yards on 42 carries (4.95 ypc), while Singleton has 154 yards on 36 carries (4.27 ypc), as well as a team-high five touchdowns.

Much-hyped prospect Drew Allar has taken over as the new starter at quarterback this season. His number look strong through three games -- 59/88 (67 %) for 737 yards and four touchdowns (no interceptions) -- but he is coming off his weakest performance of the season. Last week against Illinois, Allar was just 16/33 (48.5%) for 208 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions.

The Illini produced 12 QB pressures against Allar, including nine QB hurries, two hits, and a sack. Iowa's ability to slow down Allar may depend on its own ability to pressure Allar. Getting by Olumuyiwa Fashanu, one of the top offensive tackles in college football, will be a stiff challenge for Iowa's pass rushers.

The top target for Allar this season has been WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith (6'1", 185), who leads the team in receptions (13), yards (220), and touchdowns (2). WR Harrison Wallace III (6'1", 194) is second on the team with 10 receptions and 98 yards. TE Tyler Warren (6'6", 257) has been a top weapon as well, with 10 receptions for 81 yards and two touchdowns.

While the matchup between the Iowa defense and the Penn State offense is a strength vs strength matchup, the matchup between the Iowa offense and the Penn State defense is a much bigger mismatch. Iowa ranks 81st in offense in SP+; Penn State ranks 4th in defense in SP+. Iowa is 78th in scoring offense; Penn State is 13th in scoring defense. Iowa is 121st in total offense; Penn State is 17th in total defense.

The challenge for Iowa is finding an area of the Penn State defense to try and exploit. PSU is allowing just 102 yards and 3.29 yards per carry to opposing rushing attacks. The run defense has improved each week so far this season as well -- after allowing 146 yards and two scores against West Virginia (3.7 ypc), Delaware had 82 yards on 24 carries (3.4 ypc) and Illinois had just 78 yards on 29 carries (2.7 ypc).

That's an imposing defensive front, led by DL Chop Robinson (6'3", 254), against an Iowa running attack that's down to Leshon Williams and two freshmen (Kamari Moulton and Terrell Washington, Jr.). Williams figures to get a huge majority of the carries, but Moulton or Washington will likely get a few touches as well. They'll need to be ready for the moment.

The pass defense is even stingier, allowing just 165.3 yards per game through the air and only a 52.8% completion percentage. Opposing quarterbacks are posting a QB rating of just 92.1 against Penn State. The Iowa offensive line has been generally good in pass protection, but Penn State will represent their stiffest test by far.

The Nittany Lions have racked up 10 sacks and 70 QB pressures, led by LB Abdul Carter with 9 pressures (1 sack), with big production from Robinson (7 pressures), DL Adisa Isaac (7 pressures), and Dani Dennis-Sutton (7 pressures) as well. Keeping Cade McNamara clean in the face of that pass rush will be a huge priority for the Hawkeyes.

Even if Iowa does give Cade time to work, though, will he be able to find open receivers? Penn State has a formidable secondary, led by cornerbacks Kalen King (3 INT, 18 pass break-ups in 2022) and Johnny Dixon (2 INT, 10 pass break-ups in 2022) and safeties Jaylen Reed (3 pass break-ups in 2022) and Kevin Winston, Jr. Opponents are completing only 48.8% of their passes in the first half of games and are just 14/32 (43.8%) when the game is close (tied or within 7 points). The success opponents have had has generally come late in games, with the outcome no longer in doubt.

On paper, Iowa appears to have an edge on special teams. Tory Taylor is averaging 43.7 yards per punt (net) and has placed six kicks inside the 20-yard line. Opponents have gained just 18 yards on five returns (3.6 yards per return) against Iowa. Riley Thompson is averaging 39.3 yards per punt (net), with four kicks inside the 20.

Opponents have picked up 36 yards on four returns (9.0 yards per return). Cooper DeJean has picked up 85 yards on nine punt returns (9.4 yards per return); Kaden Saunders 46 yards on seven returns (6.6 yards per return).

At placekicker, Drew Stevens in 4/5 on field goals this season after making 16/18 field goals last year. Penn State has used two kickers and made 4/7 field goals this season, though senior Alex Felkins has emerged as the primary kicker and is 4/5 on the season (his only miss came last week on a 50+ yard kick).

All 17 of Stevens' kickoffs have gone for touchbacks this season, while 14 of Gabriel Nwosu's 18 kickoffs have been touchbacks. Nicholas Singleton has averaged 20 yards per return on five kick returns, while Kaden Wetjen has averaged 25.8 yards per return on four returns (with a long of 35).

In a close game, Iowa might be able to win the field position battle. Taylor's ability to pin opponents deep and DeJean's ability to grind out yards on returns could pay dividends for Iowa in the hidden yards department. And the ultimate x-factor on special teams is the possibility of a blocked kick. This series has seen multiple blocked kicks from both teams, though none bigger than this one:

Penn State has not turned the ball over yet this season; if they still have a zero in the turnover column after this game, it's hard to see how Iowa finds a path to victory. The way for Iowa to win this game is to muck it up. The defense needs to keep the Penn State running game from eating up yards in big chunks and it needs to get pressure on Allar, a young and inexperienced quarterback playing the biggest game of his career. Iowa needs to force him into some bad throws and bad decisions (or both).

In a straight-up game, Iowa doesn't look to have the firepower on offense to keep up with Penn State, especially with two of their biggest offensive weapons (RB Kaleb Johnson and TE Luke Lachey) unavailable for this game. The defense and special teams will need to get stops -- and they'll probably need to create scoring opportunities for the offense as well, via turnovers or big returns.

If and when the defense and special teams create opportunities for Iowa on offense, the Hawkeyes cannot waste them. Games like this are why Iowa pursued Cade McNamara in the transfer portal. If you want to contend for a Big Ten title, you have to show that you can compete with a team like Penn State. On offense, that means Cade making a few plays in the passing game -- and avoiding negative plays (big sacks and turnovers) as much as possible. It means Leshon Williams taking care of the football and getting whatever yards are available to him.

There's a path to victory for Iowa in this game. But it's not an easy path -- and it's certainly not the most likely path for how this game will play out. So far this year this Iowa defense hasn't been elite at rushing the passer or forcing turnovers; it feels like those shortcomings will prove costly on Saturday.

This feels like a game that stays close for a while, before Penn State's offense wears down the Iowa defense in the fourth quarter and mounts a few scoring drives to put the game out of reach. The offense will be able to make a few plays against Penn State, but it's going to struggle to move the ball consistently and it won't be able to hit enough big plays to offset that lack of consistency.

Penn State 27, Iowa 13