WHO: #10 Minnesota Golden Gophers (5-0, 0-0 Big Ten)
WHEN: 7:00 PM CT (Monday, January 15, 2024)
WHERE: Carver-Hawkeye Arena (Iowa City, IA)
TV: BTN
RADIO: AM 800 KXIC (Steven Grace, Mark Ironside) | YouTube
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @Hawks_Wrestling | @IowaonBTN
After opening Big Ten competition with a solid win over one border rival (#6 Nebraska), Iowa turns around to face another border rival (#10 Minnesota) tonight in their first Big Ten home dual meet of the season. Iowa and Minnesota are longtime rivals (tonight's dual will be their 109th meeting all-time), though the series has been largely lopsided in Iowa's favor in recent years.
The Hawkeyes have won straight dual meets against the Gophers, including the last four in a row in Iowa City. Those home dual meets have tended to be particularly one-sided as well, with Iowa outscoring Minnesota 115-28 in those duals. Still, Iowa won last year's dual just 18-13 and there are some talented wrestlers in the Gopher lineup. The Hawkeyes will need to bring the same intensity that they did against Nebraska on Friday night.
PROBABLE LINEUPS
On paper, Iowa should probably be solid favorites at five weights -- 133, 141, 157, 165, and 197. Minnesota should be a heavy favorite at 184 (Minnesota's best weight and Iowa's weakest weight) and a modest favorite at 285. 149 and 174 look like possible toss-up weights.
And then there's 125 -- Patrick McKee won the first four meetings with Drake Ayala, but Ayala edged McKee, 5-4, at Soldier Salute last month. Does that result indicate that Ayala has figured out McKee, or is this still a razor-tight matchup that could go either way? The latter might be more likely.
Zach Glazier-Garrett Joles at 197 is another rematch of a bout from last month's Soldier Salute event; Glazier won that match 5-4 and has been wrestling very well this season, but Joles is a quality opponent as well. Glazier is also coming off his best win of the season on Friday night, an 11-2 major decision win over defending Big Ten champion Silas Allred.
If Minnesota is going to pull off an upset in this dual, they'll need to get some traction at the lower weights. McKee could give them a big early boost at 125. 133 looks like a solid weight for Iowa, but the Hawkeyes will need a better outing from Brody Teske than he provided on Friday.
149 is close in the rankings, but Caleb Rathjen also beat Drew Roberts 11-5 almost two years ago -- how much has Roberts closed the gap since then? And at 157, Jared Franek will be favored, but Michael Blockhus is a tough out and very capable of making that a very close match (as almost all of Franek's matches are, anyway).
One other thing to watch for on Monday night -- the possible Iowa debut of Ben Kueter at heavyweight. Kueter made the trip to Lincoln on Friday night and weighed in, but Iowa opted to use Bradley Hill at heavyweight instead. Still, if Kueter is traveling and weighing in, he's likely ready to wrestle.
The NCAA's new (as of last season) redshirt rules permit a wrestler to compete in up to five "competition dates" and still use a redshirt, so Iowa has the opportunity to test Kueter in a few dual meets and still retain the option of taking a redshirt this season.
PREDICTION
WrestleStat has Iowa winning the dual 28-4, with the Hawkeyes taking nine of ten weights and the only Minnesota win coming via Isaiah Salazar major decision at 184. That's certainly a plausible outcome, but will require the Hawkeyes wrestling at close to their best at the other nine weights. I think a more likely score might be one similar to Friday night's 22-10 win, with Iowa taking 7 of 10 weights.
