Preview: No. 4 Iowa wrestling at No. 2 Oklahoma State

WHO: #2 Oklahoma State (14-0)
WHEN: 2:00 PM CT (Sunday, February 25, 2024)
WHERE: Gallagher-Iba Arena (Stillwater, OK)
TV: FS1
RADIO: AM 800 KXIC (Steven Grace, Mark Ironside) | YouTube
MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @Hawks_Wrestling | @IowaonBTN

The dual meet season wraps up for #4 Iowa with a familiar opponent -- #2 Oklahoma State -- in a familiar venue -- Gallagher-Iba Arena. Although it hasn't been a familiar venue in recent years -- this will be Iowa's first trip there since 2019. The series was paused in 2020-21 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and then the 2021-22 dual was moved to Arlington, TX. Last year's dual was in Iowa City.

This rivalry features the two winningest programs in NCAA history (Oklahoma State has 34 NCAA titles, Iowa has 24), even if both have been eclipsed by Penn State in recent years. Oklahoma State owns the edge in the dual meet, with 29 wins to Iowa's 25 (plus two draws), although recent history has favored Iowa -- the Hawkeyes have won seven of the last nine dual meets.

The two defeats in those last nine duals both happened in Stillwater, though. Iowa has not won on the Cowboys' home mat since 2015. Iowa lost 24-11 in 2017 and was stunned 27-12 two years later in 2019, a dual that started with a shocking pinfall loss by Spencer Lee and only got worse from there. Reversing those road woes will take some doing this season as well, as the #2 Cowboys are 14-0 on the season and could field a Top-12 wrestler at seven weights.

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This is a dual full of matchups that look like toss-ups, which could make for a very unpredictable dual meet. If things swing Iowa's way, it could be a Hawkeye blowout, although if things swing Oklahoma State's way, it could be a blowout in favor of the Cowboys and Iowa's third lopsided loss of the season. Or it could just be a tight, back-and-forth dual that comes down to the final weights.

On paper, Iowa looks like a clear favorite at maybe three weights -- 141, 174, and 125 or 149, though Woods' stumbles of late mean that match isn't a sure thing and 125 has been a very topsy-turvy weight this season. Oklahoma State looks like a clear favorite at three weights -- 133, 184, and 285 -- though true freshmen studs Gabe Arnold and Ben Kueter could provide an interesting wrinkle at 184 and 285 if they got the nod today.

157, 165, and 197 look closer to toss-ups, although at 165 Michael Caliendo does have a win over Izzak Olejnik at last year's NCAA Tournament, when Caliendo was at North Dakota State and Olejnik was at Northern Illinois. But Olejnik has looked good this season for the Cowboys and should pose a strong test at 165.

An Iowa victory will almost certainly involve a strong start in the lower weights. Iowa has a decent or better shot at winning 125, 141, 149, and 157. If they can take care of business at all or most of those weights, they can set themselves up well for the second half of the dual, where Oklahoma State has a few more favorable matchups.

But which Hawkeye team will show up? Iowa has dominated weaker opposition this season, but struggled in their more high-profile duals against more evenly-matched (or better) opposition. Iowa came out flat against Michigan and got steamrolled and while they had more energy against Penn State, they still got flattened by PSU's talent advantage.

OSU doesn't have a pronounced talent advantage over Iowa like the Nittany Lions did, but they have a lot of good wrestlers and a home crowd that is always rabid to see Iowa lose. WrestleStat predicts an 18-13 Iowa win, albeit with six of the matches decided by a single point. There's no result in this dual that would floor me, but given Iowa's historic struggles in Stillwater and this team's struggles against top teams this year, I think a narrow Cowboy victory makes sense.

Oklahoma State 16, Iowa 15