Preview: No. 5 Iowa WBB at No. 2 Indiana

WHO: #2 Indiana Hoosiers (22-1, 12-1 Big Ten)
WHEN: Thursday, February 9 at 5:30 PM CT
WHERE: Assembly Hall (Bloomington, IN)
TV: BTN (Matt Schumaker, Christy Winters Scott)
MOBILE: www.foxsports.com/mobile
ONLINE: www.foxsports.com/live
FOLLOW: @IowaAwesome | @IowaWBB | @IowaonBTN
RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network | Sirus/XM TBA

Everything about Iowa’s game at #2 Indiana should feel extremely familiar for most of this Iowa team.

Iowa is extremely familiar with this IU team. At the very end of last season, Iowa played Indiana three times in the course of a few weeks. The third matchup was for the Big Ten Tournament championship. Even though Indiana’s personnel is different, the Hoosiers' two best players from that team—Mackenzie Holmes and Grace Berger—are back. They certainly will do everything in their power to get revenge on Iowa for last year’s sweep.

The setting is also be familiar. Iowa played in Assembly Hall last year. It was the site of perhaps Iowa’s biggest victory of the regular season (a 96-91 win). Iowa also played at Indiana in 2020-2021 (an 89-80 loss) and Monika Czinano played there as a freshman in the 2018-2019 season (a 75-73 loss).

Iowa is also familiar with the circumstances surrounding the game. Two and a half weeks ago, the Hawks traveled to Columbus to take on then-#2 Ohio State. The Buckeyes played in front of a capacity crowd, and thought at the time that the national media was too focused on Iowa and not focused enough on their great season. Assembly Hall will be loud on Thursday night. Indiana has a chip on its shoulder. Iowa will be ready for both.

Games just don’t get much bigger than this. The winner will move into the outright lead of the Big Ten regular season standings. The winner will likely be projected as a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. And the winner will be the talk of women’s basketball media for at least the next few days.

Mackenzie Holmes - Holmes is one of the best posts in college basketball and a dark horse for National Player of the Year considerations. She’s been very good for most of her career, but took another step this season, averaging 22.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg, and 1.8 bpg. She shoots 70.8% from 2 and 71.3% from the line.

The battle between Holmes and Monika Czinano in this game will be fascinating. Both are among the most efficient scorers in college basketball. Neither is a great defender, though Holmes is better than Czinano. Both average a similar amount of fouls—2.5 for Czinano, 2.6 for Holmes—so if either get in foul trouble, it could significantly shift the fortunes of the game.

Grace Berger - Berger has been one of the best players in the Big Ten for a few years now. This year, her efficiency numbers are better than ever. But her per game outputs are also down in some notable areas. She averages 11.4 ppg (down from 16.2 and 15.4 in prior years), 3.9 rpg (down from 6.2), and 5.5 apg (up from 4.7). For shooting, she’s averaging 49.6% on two-point tries and 53.8% from three-point range. The three-point percentage is a bit deceiving, though, because she only shoots one per game on average, and hasn’t been a great three-point shooter in her career.

The primary reason Berger’s scoring and rebounding are down is that her role has changed. Last year, Indiana had two natural point guards in the starting lineup. This year, the Hoosiers have none. Berger has had to become more of a facilitator, and she’s not seeking her own shot as much. Indiana’s offense is also better overall, so Berger hasn’t had to carry as much of the load. Finally, Berger missed more than a month of the season due to injury. She’s back now, but it’s possible she’s not playing at 100%.

Yarden Garzon - Garzon—a freshman from Israel—is perhaps the biggest reason why Indiana’s offense has become one of the best in the nation this year. Garzon is a 6’3’ forward who averages 12.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg, and 3.5 apg. More impressive, she shoots 48.6% from three while attempting 4.7 threes per game. Garzon’s shooting from the 4 position helps Indiana space the floor well and gives Holmes more room to work in the post.

Sydney Parrish - Parrish is a 6’2’ wing who spent two relatively lackluster seasons at Oregon before transferring back home to Indiana. She has excelled with the Hoosiers, averaging 13.0 ppg, 5.9 rpg, and 1.9 spg, while shooting 54.7% from 2 and 37.1% from three.

Indiana’s two other big minute players are Chloe Moore-McNeil and Sara Scalia. Moore-McNeil is an athletic wing who shoots 58.0% from 2, but just 27.3% from three. She has the ball in her hands a lot, though, and averages 5 assists per game. Moore-McNeil will also probably be the defender guarding Caitlin Clark most often.

Scalia is a Minnesota transfer who has been one of the best shooters in the conference for most of her career. She’s struggling somewhat from three this year, though, shooting just 31.8%.

Indiana is the most balanced offense Iowa has played in conference, and is arguably the best offense the Hawkeyes have played all season. The Hoosiers rank 5th in points per 100 possessions and shoot extremely well from both two and three. They also rank 23rd in turnover rate, and 6th in assists per game. About the only weakness Indiana’s offense has is offensive rebound rate, which ranks 206th.

To me, Parrish shows just how dangerous the Indiana offense is. I wouldn’t have her higher than 4th on my scouting report, yet she averages 13 points per game and shoots well from two and three.

Against the conference’s best offenses so far, Iowa has switched between a player-to-player defense, a two-three zone, and a triangle-and-two. I expect we’ll see the same in this game.

In the player defense, I expect the player guarding Moore-McNeil to sag way off both to help guard Holmes in the post and to encourage Moore-McNeil to take low-percentage shots.

In the two-three zone I expect Iowa to experiment with having the corner defender bring a double-team on Holmes when she gets the ball. Iowa has to be careful with that, though, because if Garzon is in the corner and gets an open look, she’ll probably convert from three.

Finally, I think Iowa has an opportunity to somewhat negate Indiana’s shooting in the triangle-and-two. Parrish and Garzon are Indiana’s only plus three-point shooters in the starting lineup. If Iowa goes player on them, the Hawkeyes can clog the paint with the two bottom zone defenders and have the top defender watching Berger. Berger makes her living in the mid-range, so the top defender should be well positioned to occupy the spots she likes shooting from.

Indiana’s defense is also very good this year, ranking 26th in opponents’ points per 100 possessions. The Hoosiers are also a better defensive rebounding team, ranking 55th in defensive rebounding rate.

Finally, pace could have a big impact on this game. Iowa is one of the fastest teams in the country and is most effective offensively in transition. Indiana ranks 117th in possessions per 40 minutes, and will be more content to play in the half court. If the game is slower, it’s advantage Indiana. If the game speeds up, that plays into Iowa’s strengths.

Caitlin Clark. I know that sounds like a very obvious answer, but last year Clark struggled in her three matchups against Indiana primarily because Indiana’s Nicole Cardano-Hillary was a quick and pesky defender who got under Clark’s skin. Cardano-Hillary is gone now, and I don’t think Indiana has a defender quite at her level this year.

I think Iowa has to win this game in a shootout. Clark tends to shine when the lights are brightest. If Indiana doesn’t have a defender that can stick with Clark, there could be fireworks.

Clark’s ability to draw fouls could also be an X-factor. Indiana isn’t a deep team. The Hoosiers’ top six players play the vast majority of their minutes. If Clark can get one or two of them in foul trouble (particularly Holmes) it could shift the game in Iowa’s favor.