WHO: Northwestern Wildcats (3-4, 1-3 Big Ten)

WHEN: 2:30 PM CT (Saturday, October 26, 2024)

WHERE: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)

TV: BTN

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Pat Angerer, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 139/195

MOBILE: foxsports.com/mobile

ONLINE: foxsports.com/live

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @HawkeyeFootball | @CFBONFOX | @IowaonBTN

WEATHER: temps in low 60s, mostly sunny, minimal wind

LINE: Iowa -14.5 (total of 37.5)

Iowa and Northwestern both enter Saturday's game looking for a bounce-back performances after rough outings last week. Iowa obviously got picked apart by Michigan State, while Northwestern was steamrolled at home by Wisconsin, 23-3. The Wildcats fell down 14-0 early and mustered barely 200 yards of offense and just nine first downs for the game.

This is year two for Northwestern under David Braun, who replaced Pat Fitzgerald last season after a player mistreatment scandal brought an abrupt end to Fitzgerald's tenure. Braun salvaged a chaotic situation and led Northwestern to a fairly surprising 8-5 record last season amid that turmoil.

Northwestern hasn't been able to gain much traction in 2024, going 3-4 to this point in the season and just 1-3 against Big Ten competition. The only wins have been a narrow win over Miami (OH) in the season opener, a lopsided win over a very bad Eastern Illinois team and a shocking road blowout over Maryland. Last season Northwestern also started 3-4, before going on a 5-1 stretch to end the season. A 10-7 loss to Iowa at Wrigley Field last November was the only defeat in those final six games.

Northwestern has had one of the least effective offenses in the Big Ten this season. The Wildcats average just 19.0 ppg; only UCLA (17.4 ppg) has averaged less this season. Northwestern has scored 30+ points just twice and been held to 13 points or less in three games this year.

The WIldcats are also dead last in the league in total offense, averaging less than 300 yards per game (286.6 ypg) and just 4.76 yards per play (also last). Northwestern has been almost equally ineffective throwing the ball and running it; the Wildcats rank 16th in the Big Ten in passing offense (166 ypg), 17th in passing yards per attempt (5.7 ypa), and last in QB rating (104.3) and passing touchdowns (4). The Wildcats are 15th in the league in rushing offense (120.6 ypg) and 14th in yards per carry (3.89 ypc).

Northwestern also ranks 14th in red zone scoring percentage (77.3%, 17 scores on 22 attempts) and 15th in touchdown conversion (50%, 11 of 22 attempts). The Wildcats have been especially poor at converting third downs, turning just 26.7% (24 of 90) of those opportunities into first downs.

Two bright spot for the Wildcats: they don't turn the ball over much and they've been good at protecting the passer. The Wildcats have just seven giveaways this season, three interceptions and four fumbles lost. The offensive line has also allowed just nine sacks in seven games this year.

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With former Northwestern quarterback Brendan Sullivan now in Iowa City, sophomore Jack Lausch has taken over as the starter after missing the first two games of the season. Lausch has been unremarkable as a thrower, completing 70 of 138 attempts (50.7%) this year for 808 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions. Lausch has been a capable runner, though, with 196 yards on the ground and a touchdown on 47 attempts this season.

Northwestern's top runner has been longtime presence Cam Porter, a senior RB leading the team in carries (73), yards (320), and touchdowns (5). Aside from Porter and Lausch, sophomore RB Joseph Himon II has also gained over 100 yards this season, with 33 attempts for 145 yards and a score this year.

Senior wide receiver A.J. Henning (5'10", 190) leads the team in receptions (34) and touchdown catches, with three of the team's four total touchdown receptions. Fellow senior wide receiver Bryce Kirtz (6'0", 195) leads the team in receiving yards (414) on 27 receptions. Senior tight end Thomas Gordon is the other main receiving threat, with 14 receptions for 155 yards.

Northwestern has been fairly average on defense this year. The Wildcats are 10th in the league in scoring defense (19.6 ppg) and 13th in total defense (350.1 ypg) and 10th in yards per play allowed (5.2). Pass defense has been a particular concern for Northwestern, ranking 16th in passing yards allowed (246.7 ypg), 13th in yards per attempt allowed (7.0 ypa), and 12th in completion percentage allowed (61.9%). The Wildcats have allowed 10 touchdowns through the air against six interceptions.

The Wildcats have been better against the run, ranking 8th in the league in run defense (103.4 ypg). They're fifth in the league in yards per carry allowed (3.2 ypc) and given up six rushing touchdowns. Northwestern has also been average on third downs, allowing conversions on 35% of attempts (9th in the league).

Other strong suits for Northwestern: pass rush and red zone defense. The Wildcats have 17 sacks this year, 6th best in the Big Ten. Northwestern has also shown some good bend-don't-break ability in the red zone, allowing scores on just 72.4% (21 scores on 29 attempts), 3rd best in the Big Ten. Opponents have scored touchdowns on less than 50% of their red zone appearances (14 of 29, 48.3%).

Linebackers Mac Uihlein and Xander Mueller lead the team in tackles, with 46 and 43 stops respectively. Aidan Hubbard leads the team in sacks (3.0) and tackles for loss (3.5), with Anto Saka ranking second in sacks (2.5) and tying for first in tackles for loss (3.5). They also lead the team in QB hurries, with four hurries apiece. Defensive back Theran Johnson has been the most notable Wildcat in coverage, with seven passes defended.

Northwestern has punted the second-most (36) in the league this year, behind only Purdue. Those punts have only gone for 42 yards per attempt, though, which ranks 13th in the league. Opponents have only mustered 96 yards on 14 returns (6.9 yards per return) this season.

Jack Olsen converted seven of 10 field goal tries to start the season for Northwestern, but punter Luke Akers has taken over place-kicking duties for the last two games. He's converted four of six field goal attempts over those two games, including a pair of misses against Wisconsin last week. Akers has also handled kickoff duties for the entire season, with touchbacks on 17 of 32 attempts this year.

On paper, Northwestern doesn't look like a team with the weapons to threaten Iowa's defense -- but the same was true of Michigan State to some extent last week and we know how that turned out. Iowa will need to play with better effort and better focus on Saturday, regardless of the struggles Northwestern's offense has shown in previous performances this season.

Saturday's game is the start of a two-game stretch at home and Iowa will need to use the comforts of home to regain some traction to prevent this season from going fully off the rails. Northwestern has been a long-time nemesis for Iowa, though, and the strength of their run defense could put added pressure on Cade McNamara and the Iowa passing game.

I do expect the defense to refocus and rebound after last week's rough outing and do a much better job of keeping Northwestern's offense in check. But how will McNamara and the Hawkeye offense fare? My pick is that McNamara has one of his better games of the season (180+ passing yards and a touchdown) and Kaleb Johnson goes for 100+ yards on the ground again.

Iowa 24, Northwestern 14