WHO: Wisconsin Badgers (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten)

WHEN: 6:34 PM CT (Saturday, November 2, 2024)

WHERE: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)

TV: NBC (Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge, Kathryn Tappen)

RADIO: Hawkeye Radio Network (Gary Dolphin, Pat Angerer, Rob Brooks) | Sirius/XM 85

MOBILE: peacocktv.com

ONLINE: peacocktv.com

FOLLOW: @HawkeyeBeacon | @HawkeyeFootball | @NBCSports | @IowaonBTN

WEATHER: temps in the 40s or low 40s, chance of rain, some wind gusts

LINE: Iowa -2 (total of 41.5)

Few programs are as evenly-matched or mirror each other as much as Iowa and Wisconsin. Wisconsin leads the overall series between the programs 49-46-2, which is the closest win-loss mark between Iowa and any other longtime Big Ten opponent. The programs are 15-15 against one another since 1990, with the Badgers holding a slight 13-10 edge in the series since Kirk Ferentz arrived at Iowa in 1999. The Hawkeys have won three of the last four meetings, though, including two straight in Kinnick Stadium and last year's tilt in Madison.

So it probably comes as little surprise that both Iowa and Wisconsin enter this game at 5-3 overall and 3-2 in Big Ten play. Both teams lost a non-conference game (Iowa to Iowa State, Wisconsin to Alabama), both lost to a Big Ten powerhouse (Iowa to Ohio State, Wisconsin to Penn State), and both lost a Big Ten road game against an inconsistent opponent (Iowa to Michigan State, Wisconsin to USC), but have otherwise handled their business this season.

Both programs have similar strengths and weaknesses this season as well. The Badgers and Hawkeyes both have very experienced offensive lines (143 career starts for the badgers, 156 for the Hawkeyes), both have been good at running the ball this season, and both have strong defenses, though not on par with some of the more elite defenses they've fielded in the past. To that end, both teams have shown some vulnerability against the run this season and both teams have struggled with middling quarterback play at times.

As mentioned, the strength of this Wisconsin team is its beef upfront. The Badgers have been able to ride an offensive line loaded with experience (143 starts), which has fueled a good rushing attack, albeit not one that matches the output of the dominant Badger running games of years past. This year, Wisconsin ranks 6th in the Big Ten with 179.9 rushing yards per game and just 11th in yards per carry at 4.63. Wisconsin's 19 rushing touchdowns is third-most in the league this season.

In fact, the success (or lack thereof) of the Wisconsin running game has been a pretty good bellwether for the entire Badger team this season. When the Badgers run for 150 yards or more, they're 5-0; when they fail to hit 150 yards on the ground, they're 0-3. Alabama held them to 149 yards, USC held them to 106, and Penn State kept them to just 81 yards last weekend.

Iowa's run defense this season has mostly alternated been very good (five games holding opponents under 100 yards) or very bad (the Hawkeyes allowed 200+ in losses at Ohio State and Michigan State). Which Hawkeye run defense will show up on Saturday night? It's not much of a stretch to say that the run defense that shows up will determine whether Iowa wins or loses the game.

In terms of personnel, Oklahoma transfer Tawee Walker (5'9", 218) has been the top rusher for the Badgers this season, with 624 yards and 10 touchdowns on 126 carries (4.95 ypc). He's carried the ball 20+ times in each of Wisconsin's past three games.

Cade Yacamelli (6'0", 215) offers more of a home run threat -- he has 274 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 33 carries, an 8.3 yards per carry average. He hasn't had more than five carries in a game since the Badgers' 42-10 loss to Alabama in mid-September. Finally, Chaz Mellusi (5'11", 212) has added 232 yards and three scores on 56 carries this season.

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Wisconsin turned to the transfer portal to find an upgrade at quarterback and came away with Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke (6'4", 225). Unfortunately, Van Dyke tore his ACL in the Badgers' loss to Alabama, which brought sophomore Braedyn Locke (6'0", 205) back into the fold as the starter. Iowa fans may remember him from an error-filled, ineffective effort last year, when he went 15-of-30 for 122 yards and an interception.

Locke hasn't been a lot better this season, going 102-for-177 (57.6%) for 1,281 yards and seven touchdowns against six interceptions. Locke has flashed some greater ability in a few games this season, though; he completed 65.6% of his passes for 359 yards and three touchdowns (as well as two interceptions) against Purdue and completed 71.4% of his passes for 240 yards and a score (and a pick) against Rutgers.

Junior wide receivers Will Pauling (5'10", 190) and Vinny Anthony II (6'0", 188) have been Wisconsin's top targets in the passing game this year. Pauling leads the team with 38 receptions; Anthony ranks second with 20 catches. Anthony and Pauling are also 1-2 in yardage, as Anthony has 382 receiving yards, one more than Pauling's 381 receiving yards. Both share the team lead in touchdown receptions at two with freshman wide receiver Trech Kekahuna, who has grabbed 15 passes for 233 yards this season.

New head coach Luke Fickell brought the air raid offense with him when he came to Madison in 2023, but the Badgers have not yet become masters of the air under his watch. After finishing fourth in the league in passing yards last season, the Badgers have slipped 12th this year. With a talented and experienced offensive line and a host of capable running backs, the Badgers have leaned more on the rushing game this season.

When Wisconsin was contending for Big Ten championships under Bret Bielema and Paul Chryst, the Badgers' blueprint for success married a brawny, overpowering rushing attack with very stout defenses. Under Fickell and current defensive coordinator Mike Tressel, the Badger defenses have gone from frequently great to merely good.

The Badgers rank 8th in the league in scoring defense, allowing 18.9 ppg, though that's largely a factor of allowing 108 points their three losses this season. In fact, the Badgers have allowed 36 ppg in their three losses this season and just 8.6 ppg in their five wins. Wisconsin has held three teams (Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern) under 10 points this season.

Wisconsin has been most vulnerable on the ground; the Badgers have allowed 144.0 rushing yards per game this season (14th in the Big Ten) and 4.45 yards per carry (15th). The run defense was at its worst in Wisconsin's losses (181 yards and three touchdowns allowed to Alabama, 173 yards and a score to Penn State last week), but the Badgers have also allowed at least 120 yards in every game this season and six of eight opponents have averaged better than 4.0 yards per carry.

The Badgers have been better at shutting teams down through the air; they rank fourth in the league in passing yards allowed (167.1 ypg), completion percentage allowed (58.7), and seventh in opponent QB rating (119.6). Opponents have completed eight touchdown passes against just three interceptions.

Linebacker Jaheim Thomas and safety Hunter Wohler lead the team in tackles, with 52 and 48 stops respectively. Wisconsin ranks just 13th in sacks this season with 13; a trio of Badgers (Sebastian Cheeks, Christian Allegro, and Elijah Hills) leads the team with two sacks apiece. Wisconsin has been credited with 15 QB hurries, led by Leon Lowey Jr. with four.

The Badgers have 31 tackles for loss this season, led by Jake Chaney and Aaron Witt with four apiece. Two of the Badgers' three interceptions this season have been recorded by defensive back Preston Zachman. While Wisconsin has only picked off three passes this season, they have recovered seven fumbles, the most in the Big Ten.

The Badgers have been solid or better on special teams this season, highlighted by punter Atticus Bertrams, who ranks second in the Big Ten with an average of 46.3 yards per kick. 14 of his 33 punts have been downed inside the 20. (By comparison, Rhys Dakin has had 20 of 42 kicks downed inside the 20.) Opponents have returned just 11 kicks for 65 yards against Bertrams and the Badgers.

Placekicker Nathanial Vakos has gone 8-of-12 on field goal attempts this season, including the unusual stat line of going 2-of-6 on kicks between 30 and 49 yards, but 3-of-3 on kicks of 50+ yards. He's also had one kick blocked. Gavin Lahm has been an effective weapon on kickoffs as well, averaging 64.4 yards per boot and recording touchbacks on 41 of 42 kicks this season.

Wisconsin hasn't posed much of a threat on punt returns this season (just 66 yards on 12 returns), but their 388 kickoff return yards is third-most in the league. Vinny Anthony II has been the biggest threat in the return game; he's averaging 29.6 yards per return on seven attempts this season, which Trech Kekahuna has averaged 2.03 yards per return on seven tries.

Will 2024 continue Iowa's run of dominance in November? Iowa has won 18 of its last 19 games in November and is 18-2 in November since 2019. Iowa's only losses in November in that span? A 24-22 nail-biter against Wisconsin in 2019 and a gaffe-filled 24-17 defeat to Nebraska in 2022. The Hawkeyes have outscored opponents by an average margin of 25-13 in those 18 wins as well.

This is a game that feels like it will be decided by line play and turnovers. Wisconsin's defense has struggled to sack the quarterback (13, t-13th in the Big Ten); Iowa ranks seventh in the league with 19 sacks. Both teams have been effective at protecting their passers; Wisconsin's eight sacks allowed ranks fourth in the league, while Iowa's nine sacks allowed is fifth-best. If either defense is able to pressure the opposing quarterback into mistakes, that could be decisive.

Likewise, the team that's most effective at running the ball on Saturday night figures to have a big advantage. Iowa has the Big Ten's best rushing attack (209 ypg), but the Hawkeyes lost badly in both games they failed to reach 200 yards on the ground (116 against Ohio State, 133 against Michigan State).

Notably, those losses also featured far fewer rushing attempts than normal for Iowa this season; the Hawkeyes have logged 37 or more carries in their other six games this year, while they had just 27 attempts against the Buckeyes and 23 against the Spartans. When they've been able to stay committed to the run game, good outcomes have resulted.

Here's guessing this is another strong day for the rushing attack, headlined by Kaleb Johnson going for 150+ yards and at least one touchdown. The defense forces Bradeyn Locke into a pair of turnovers and holds the Badgers under 150 yards on the ground as well.

Iowa 23, Wisconsin 17