Penn State travels to Iowa City this weekend for a three-game series and they come in to town on a three-game win streak. The Nittany Lions swept Michigan State over the weekend, including a 27-4 win on Saturday. Overall, Penn State is 12-18, but has taken games from Ohio State, Michigan, Maryland and two of three from Rutgers. The Iowa Hawkeyes enter the series at 19-13 overall, coming off a series loss at Indiana.
Penn State Hitting
As a team, the Nittany Lions are tied for fourth in the Big Ten in batting average, seventh in OBP% and tenth in runs scored. They also rank tenth in the conference in home runs, with just 25. Their best hitter is 2B Gavin Homer, as he is batting .350 on the season, while leading the team in hits (35), walks (20), OBP% (.458) and stolen bases (7). He is the likely leadoff batter for Penn State. OF Johnny Piacentino is the batter with the most power in the PSU lineup, as he leads the team with six home runs and ten doubles. Piacentino also leads the team in RBIs (25) and total bases (61). C Matt Wood, INF Justin Williams and INF Jay Harry all bat right around .300, with a combined 25 doubles between them. Outside of Homer, this lineup doesn’t really have a consistently dangerous bat, but if they get going all at once they can score in bunches. They only have two batters with more than four home runs, so they are not a super powerful lineup. INF Parker Hendershot is a name to keep an eye, as he has played in just 19 games, but is batting .322, so he could be a tough out if he plays.
The Nittany Lions do not walk a whole lot, just 106 times in 30 games, which is good for 12th in the Big Ten. On top of that their strikeout rate is pretty low at 24.3%, but as I mentioned their lineup is not incredibly scary, so good pitching by Iowa should get through the Penn State order. Low walk and strikeout rates means Penn State puts the ball in play, so the Iowa defense will need to be solid.
Penn State Pitching Staff
The projected starting rotation for PSU is Bailey Dees, Conor Larkin and Kyle Virbitsky. The pitching staff, as a whole, has posted a 5.40 team ERA, which is eighth in the Big Ten. They also allow an opponent batting average of .273, while ranking ninth in hits allowed.
Bailey Dees is 3-2 on the season, with a 5.44 ERA, while striking out 42 and walking just 15. Despite, the low walk rate, batters have had success vs Dees with 58 hits in 48 innings.
Conor Larkin is the projected Saturday starter and is 3-5 on the season, while posting the best ERA of the three starters at 4.72. Larkin has struck out 55 and walked just 11 in 47.2 innings, but has allowed 45 hits.
Sunday it will be Kyle Virbitsky on the mound for Penn State. Virbitsky is 2-3 on the season with a 4.91 ERA, while striking out 58 and walking 15 over 51.1 innings of work. The starters for PSU do a really good job of limiting walks, but teams have been able to hit all three starters on a consistent basis. If Iowa can get the bats going they have the opportunity to knock a couple of guys out of the game early.
Out of the bullpen, Coach Cooper really likes to go to Tyler Shingledecker and Mason Mellott, as they both have made 12 appearances. Shingledecker has thrown 21.1 innings, posting a 5.06 ERA, while striking out 23 batters. Mellot has a similar ERA at 5.16 over 22.2 innings pitched. It is very likely that Iowa sees both pitchers over the weekend and much like the starters, they are hittable.
Ralph Gambino has appeared in seven games, but has only thrown 6 innings. However, in those appearances he has a 1.50 ERA due to five unearned runs allowed. Steven Miller (5.63 ERA), Logan Evans (7.27) and Hutch Gagnon (7.71) have also all seen decent time out of the bullpen.
The Hawkeyes have a very favorable matchup this weekend and should be able to have a very successful weekend, as long as the pitching takes care of business and the batting lineup can take advantage of very hittable pitching.
Postseason Implications
The Hawkeyes are sitting at 19-13 overall, with an RPI right around 40, but with the series loss to Indiana, they are right on the bubble.
These final six home games vs PSU and Illinois are very important because a couple of home losses to low RPI teams can be incredibly damaging to Iowa’s resume. Winning five out of six to finish up the slate at Duane Banks would put them in solid position going into the last two weekends.
As I mentioned above, statistically this weekend matchup really favors that Hawkeyes, but Penn State has won four straight games, so it won’t be an easy weekend. Coach Heller needs to lay it out to the team and tell them that as long as they take care of business over the last 12 games, they should be in the tournament field.
