WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Kickoff: 3:05 p.m.
TV: Big Ten Network – Brandon Gaudin, Anthony Herron, and Rick Pizzo on the call.
Last Meeting: Iowa leads 46-22.
The Weather: Partly cloudy skies, temps in the low 80’s with a chance of rain.
The Line: Iowa is a 3.5 point favorite with the total of 40.5 points.
Download the Circa Sports app today at: https://www.circasports.com/iowa-app and bet on the game.
History: Iowa holds a 46-22 edge in the series and the Hawkeyes have won the last six meetings with the Cyclones. This will be the first meeting in Iowa City since 2018, which was a 13-3 win by the Hawkeyes. Matt Campbell is 0-6 against Iowa. Kirk Ferentz is 13-9 against Iowa State.
THE BREAKDOWN
Iowa rush offense vs. Iowa State rush defense
The Hawkeye ground game was inconsistent at best in the opening win over South Dakota State. Officially, Iowa only gained 57 yards, but that included 27 lost yards on sacks by Spencer Petras. Leshon Williams got the start at running back and rushed for 72 yards on 24 carries. True freshman Kaleb Johnson had three carries in the first game. Iowa hopes to get starting running back Gavin Williams back for the second game of the season after missing the first one recovering from a sprained ankle.
The Cyclones held Southeast Missouri State in check in the opening game of the season. They allowed 98 yards rushing and 4.5 yards per carry in the contest. Iowa State had three players who had five tackles in the opening game. Defensive back Beau Freyler, linebacker Colby Reeder, and linebacker Myles Mendeszoon were the leading tacklers. The Cyclones also had three tackles for loss in their opening game.
Iowa’s running attack did not look good in the first game of the season. The offensive line was inconsistent at best and will have to improve for the Hawkeyes to sustain a ground game. Perhaps getting Gavin Williams back will help the cause. It is also worth noting that Iowa State didn’t perform well against a lesser opponent and limiting their running game. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO IOWA
Iowa pass offense vs. Iowa State pass defense
As poor as the Iowa rushing attack was in the first game of the year, the passing game was perhaps even worse. Spencer Petras was 11-25 for 109 yards and one interception. He was also sacked a couple of times. Of the missed passes, between six and eight of the throws were simply off target tosses by Petras.
Arland Bruce was targeted ten games in the first game of the year, catching five of them for 68 yards, including a long of 27 yards. Leshon Williams and Sam LaPorta had two receptions each. Williams had a 15 yard reception against South Dakota State.
The Iowa State pass defense gave up 222 yards passing in the opening game. That was on 19 of 38 throws and included one touchdown pass. The Cyclones had one interception in the game and they broke up seven passes. Reeder led the team in passes broken up with two. Reeder also led the team in quarterback hurries with three and the Cyclones had eight total in the game. One surprise was Iowa State did not have a sack and All American Will McDonald was pretty quiet with only one quarterback hurry.
Hard to have a whole lot of faith in Iowa’s passing game, but it’s also easy to not be overwhelmed by the Cyclone pass defense. ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Iowa State rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense
The Cyclone ground game looks a bit different this year. Gone is Breece Hall to the NFL and that means two former Iowa recruiting targets will now be at the top of the depth chart for Iowa State. The starter this year is Jirehl Brock, who is originally from Quincy, IL. Brock is a physical runner and in the opener he rushed for 104 yards and averaged 6.5 yards per carry. The backup is Eli Sanders, who rushed for 24 yards on 7 carries in the opening game. Overall, the Cyclones ran for 176 yards and averaged 4.9 yards per carry.
Iowa’s rush defense was outstanding in the opening game against South Dakota State. The Hawkeyes allowed just 33 yards rushing against the Jackrabbits and allowed just 1.1 yards per carry. Some of that includes lost yards on sacks, but still, Iowa was outstanding stopping the run. Jack Campbell led the way, with a tackle for safety and 12 stops on the day. Logan Lee was strong along the defensive line with 6 tackles. Seth Benson and Cooper DeJean chipped in with four stops. While ISU’s line is pretty solid, it’s hard to imagine the Cyclones running effectively against Iowa’s tough defense. Look for Iowa to keep Iowa State under 100 yards on the ground. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Iowa State pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense
It’s a new world for the Cyclones at quarterback. Brock Purdy is off to the NFL and the Hunter Dekkers is now in charge of the offense. He actually came in last year against Iowa, but last Saturday was his first start and he performed very well. Dekkers completed 25 of 31 passes for 293 yards and four touchdowns. He had one interception in the contest. His favorite targets were Xavier Hutchinson and Jaylin Noel. Hutchinson, who is one of the top wide receivers in the Big 12, caught 8 passes for 128 yards and three touchdowns. Noel had 6 receptions for 25 yards. Dekkers, who is a lefty, completed passes to ten different receivers.
The Iowa pass defense continues to be strong. The Hawkeyes allowed just 87 yards passing in the opener and only 10 completions. One thing Iowa didn’t do was intercept a pass, which is unusual given that the Hawkeyes picked off 25 passes last year. However, they did breakup 8 throws, led by safety Quinn Schulte with four in his first college start. Iowa’s pass rush was solid with Joe Evans with a pair of sacks and Logan Lee with 1.5 sacks. Iowa also had five quarterback hurries. This will be an interesting battle because Dekkers did throw the ball pretty well. But, look for Iowa to get their interception game going in this one and limit Dekkers to under 200 yards passing. ADVANTAGE: IOWA
Special Teams
Tory Taylor. That’s it. That’s the list. The Iowa punter was outstanding in the opener, punting ten times and dropping seven of them inside the 20 yard line while averaging almost 48 yards per punt. Aaron Blom handled the field goal duties. He missed his first from 40 yards, but hit from 46 yards on his second attempt. Riley Moss handled kickoff returns and averaged 20.5 yards per return. Arland Bruce handled punt returns. He averaged 3.4 yards per return.
Iowa State didn’t attempt any field goals and it appears they have settled on Jace Gilbert on handling those duties. He was 6-6 on PAT’s in the opener. Tyler Perkins handled the punting duties. He averaged 46.7 yards per punt with one inside the 20 yard line. Eli Sanders handles kickoff returns. He averaged 20 yards per return in the first game. Jaylin Noel handled one punt return in the game. Based on Taylor being such a weapon and Iowa’s strength on special teams, edge to the Hawkeyes. ADVANTAGE: SLIGHT TO IOWA
THE LAST CALL
Can Kirk Ferentz and Iowa continue their domination of this series?
Matt Campbell is 0-6 against Iowa and most felt that last year they had their best chance to get the Hawkeyes. Yet, they fell short once again.
The betting line for this game has been interesting to follow. During the summer the line opened at one establishment in Las Vegas at Iowa -13. Other places were at Iowa -6.5 or -7 during the summer. This week it opened at Iowa -3.5 and that’s clearly influenced by the horrific offensive performance by the Hawkeyes in the opening game of the season.
Which brings us to the actual game. This is an Iowa State team with what I think are a lot of question marks. How good are they on defense? Will McDonald is a great player and O’Rein Vance is very good, but beyond that a lot of question marks. Then on offense, Hunter Dekkers will be making his first college start on the road and it’s at a sold out Kinnick Stadium filled with Hawkeye fans. While the Cyclones have a pretty experienced offensive line with four returning starters, Iowa will bring pressure and the hard hitting defense will make life difficult for Dekkers.
The real story heading into this game is the Iowa offense. The Hawkeye defense will be among the best in the country. But, Iowa can’t win this game with an offense that looks like the one that played last week.
It was interesting listening to offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz this week because it felt like he put quarterback Spencer Petras on notice. Ferentz felt that Petras needs to improve his fundamentals and be more consistent in that area. However, Iowa’s offensive line also needs to improve and open more holes in the run game and better protection. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a change under center if Petras struggles early on Saturday.
My feeling is teams make a pretty big leap from week one to week two and Iowa’s offensive line will be better and the return of Gavin Williams will also help. The passing game will start to find Sam LaPorta more often and that will help as well.
Given the struggles of the Iowa offense and the strength of the Hawkeye defense, expect a low scoring game. IOWA 17 IOWA STATE 10. My pick to click this week is Sam LaPorta. He has a touchdown reception.
