It is hard to believe the football season is already one-third over. Of course, it is also October 1 and its 80 degrees and muggy.

Once again, Iowa has avoided an early season stumble in its non-conference schedule and heads into the heart of Big 10 play with a victory notched over its instate rival, is ranked and has a shot at making a statement by taking out a pre-season divisional favorite.

Last year, despite looking evenly matched on the field, the Hawkeyes fumbled away a chance to take down Wisconsin, dropping that game and never really getting seriously back into the conference championship race.

This year the favorite standing in their way is Michigan, which could bode well. While Wisconsin is in the midst of a frustrating four-game win streak against Iowa, Kirk Ferentz has won four of the last five against the Wolverines, including the scintillating upset of then #3 Michigan in 2016 thanks to the leg of Keith Duncan.

It should also be noted that Jim Harbaugh has a real Iowa problem – having never bested Ferentz and having some personal demons from losses to the Hawks as a player as well. If Iowa wants to be taken seriously as a Big 10 conference championship contender and enter the national conversation, Saturday is a must-win. Lose in Ann Arbor, and Iowa will once again look like a “nice” 8 or so win team that plays in a mid-level bowl against another slightly above average opponent. Nothing wrong with that, per se, but it seems to me the staff and players have bigger goals in mind.

Iowa’s last tune up opponent, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, did not put up much of a fight, but Iowa’s dominance of what has traditionally been one of the better Conference USA teams indicates the Hawkeyes are firing on all cylinders heading into the meat of its schedule.

Here are some observations that struck me while re-watching the game on DVR:

· Nate Stanley looks like an NFL caliber quarterback. I am not the only one to feel this way – color man Andre Ware raved about Stanley’s arm strength, accuracy and poise and noted if he gets time from his offensive line – which he usually does – he can be close to elite. It is nice to hear a former quarterback and a non-biased observer rave about the Iowa signal caller. One of the few things missing from Stanley’s resume is a signature road win against a road opponent. That knock can be put to bed this Saturday if he plays to the best of his ability. It should be noted that Ware said he expects Iowa “wont have any problem” with Michigan. I knew I loved Andre Ware for some reason!

· Concern is growing about A.J. Epenesa’s lack of production. His sacks and tackles for loss are both down quite a bit, despite him getting more snaps. This is a legitimate cause for concern, but it should be noted that Iowa’s overall defensive numbers are not only stellar, they are among the best in college football. Clearly, the attention Epenesa is getting – leading to his diminished stats – are resulting in opponents game planning around one guy, giving the rest of the defense a much easier job, which it is taking advantage of. I also think Harbaugh and Michigan are arrogant enough to think they can handle Epenesa without as much double teaming and chipping, which could be a major mistake. I predict Epenesa will raise more havoc this week than he has thus far this season.

· Iowa’s running back-by-committee plan is working better than anyone could have reasonably expected. And the best pure runner is probably the third stringer, Tyler Goodson. He also caught the aforementioned Andre Ware’s eye, who expressed stunned disbelief Goodson was “only” a 3 star recruit and saying he highly doubts there were 37 better running backs in his recruiting class. I tend to agree. Goodson is a superstar in waiting and as soon as he bulks up a bit to where he doesn’t get run over pass blocking, has the potential to be Iowa’s superstar on offense. And that is no knock on the guys currently ahead of him – all four of the running backs that get carries for Iowa are legitimate Big 10 talents. What a luxury to have.

· You need only look at hated rivals Nebraska and Iowa State to see how damaging turning the ball over is in college football. Both teams – who received lots of positive preseason buzz – are already sitting on two losses, due in no small part to being reckless with the ball. Meantime, Iowa has turned it over only once, early in its first game. It is no surprise that a team with one turnover in four games is 4-0. If Iowa can keep being stingy with turnovers and play ball control offense the way it wants, the Hawkeyes will be an extremely hard team to beat. They aren’t going to beat themselves and are talented enough to go toe-to-toe with just about any team in the country.

I am leery of anointing this Hawkeye team a legit contender until I see them prove it in a big conference road game. Beating a saltier-than-usual Iowa State in Ames as an underdog was certainly impressive, but the game itself was a disjointed mess. Rutgers is Rutgers and MTSU and Miami are little more than speed bumps. That said, this team sure looks to me to be the most well-rounded squad since the 2009 team that won an Orange Bowl. I think its offense is quite a bit better than the 2015 Rose Bowl team while its defense is as good.

It is time for Nate Stanley and the rest of the Hawks to prove they are ready for prime time. I think there is no question they have the talent to do so. Will they also have the execution and will? We will know pretty early Saturday afternoon.

Follow me on Twitter @ToryBrecht and @12Saturdays