Published Sep 29, 2020
Tuesdays with Torbee
Tory Brecht
Staff Report

It will never make me rich – or bankrupt me due to my relative cheapness – but Iowa’s foray into legalized sports gaming has made me a low-level degenerate.

As I am a cheapskate, a “big’ bet for me is seldom larger than $25 or so. But my ultra conservative, small increment wagering has been lucrative while also making sports viewing much more entertaining. I opened an Elite Sportsbook account last October, starting with a modest $100 bankroll. By the time the sports world came to a screeching halt due to the Covid-19 pandemic just before the Hawkeyes took the court in the Big 10 Tournament, I’d won a little more than $300, one small bet at a time.

Of course, there were bad beats and humiliating miscalculations along the way. In particular, I remember a New England Patriot’s wide receiver setting the ball down a half-yard outside the endzone to let the clock out rather than helping me cover. Never have I loathed good sportsmanship more in my life.

That is one of the downsides to betting – it makes you cheer for things you would never dream of otherwise. Such as me, a diehard Chicago Bears and Iowa Hawkeye fan, who was leaping out of my seat in joy as Aaron Rodgers and Allen Lazard bombed New Orleans, securing my Packers +3 bet during Sunday Night Football, capping off a stellar 5-0 NFL wagering day. So, I needed to take a shower afterward!? At least I got those ducats, right?

Being an obsessive Iowa fan does help a bit, too, particularly in betting the Big 10. Having watched Iowa for decades, I’ve gotten particularly good at sniffing out when the Hawkeyes are being overrated by national pundits (and bettors) and are primed for a bed pooping. It may make me a bad “fan” to bet against my hometown Hawks, but it makes for smart wagering at times.

Of course, being too pessimistic about Iowa can sometimes bite back. The biggest loss I took last season was putting $75 on Iowa State to win in basketball. My faith was not strong enough, and I paid the financial price. But that was a victory tax worth funding.

With the Big 10 about to kick off its season, I felt like looking at Iowa season futures – that is, where the early lines are for their conference tilts. The numbers used are from Elite Sportsbook, on Monday, September 28. Here is how I’m feeling about the games and wagers:

· Iowa @ Purdue: (Iowa -8.5) This line actually opened with Iowa as a 9.5 favorite, which I jumped on right away, from the Purdue side. I think Iowa very well may win this game. But I don’t see them doing it in double-digit fashion. West Lafayette is always a weird, empty place to play, and this year it will be even emptier and weirder. Not to mention Jeff Brohm always has a great offensive game plan when facing the Hawkeyes. I see this being a shootout, and within 3-6 points. Take Purdue and the points, but ya should have gotten it closer to 10 like I did!

· Northwestern @ Iowa: (Iowa -14.5) That is a pretty hefty number to cover against a Pat Fitzgerald team, considering he almost always has a salty defense. Still, Iowa looks to be even more explosive on offense this year (at least if Spencer Petras is average to above-average) and I am still not sold on Northwestern being able to score points. I was at this game in person in Evanston last year, and it looked like men against boys in a 20-0 shutout. I’m taking Iowa here and hoping for offensive fireworks.

· Michigan State @ Iowa: (Iowa -4.5) This one makes me a little nervous because it looks too easy, which is often a trap. Iowa should be able to roll over a Dantonio-less Spartan squad that is in a major rebuild, especially at home. I am chalking the low number up to the pundits believing the Big 10 West is so much worse than the Big 10 East. But MSU is no Ohio State, Penn State or even Michigan. I think Iowa covers this one in style.

· Iowa @ Minnesota: (Iowa +2.5) My heart really, really wants to pull the trigger for the Hawkeyes here. But I’ve had this game marked as a loss since the schedule came out. It’s better for Iowa that it is no longer on a Friday night, but I still think the rodents have revenge on their mind and a talented team up to the task. I am afraid I must go with the boat rowers in this one.

· Iowa @ Penn State: (Iowa +7) Another one where I hope Iowa covers or wins, but my head says they won’t. I know the last game in Happy Valley was a tight affair, but if Iowa stays within 10, I’ll be impressed. Going with the safer bet here and the Nits.

· Nebraska @ Iowa: (Iowa -3) C’mon, now. I know the last two games came down to field goals, but Iowa was clearly vastly superior on the field. This year, Nebraska will be in shambles due to their TOTALLY NOT FAIR AND IT MAKES SCOTT FROST CRY schedule, and prime for Iowa to curb stomp. Bet the farm on the Hawks to easily cover 3.

· Iowa @ Illinois: (Iowa -13) I was at the last two Iowa games in Champaign, and have to say other than a lack of Iowa fans, this game should feel the same in the Covid era as any other Illini home game. Iowa has also outscored Illinois 82-10 in the last two games. Easy cover.

· Wisconsin @ Iowa: (Iowa +4.5) This one might be heart over head, but dammit, one of these years Iowa will break this lingering Badger curse! Let’s let it be 2020. Iowa wins this one outright.

Thank you for indulging one of my many vices. Good luck, and may the odds be ever in your favor!

Follow me on Twitter @ToryBrecht and @12Saaturdays